UFC 315 Muhammed vs Maddalena prediction records
Event date: . 12 recorded matchups.
These records preserve the published predictions after the event. Confidence is a model estimate, not a guarantee or the archive win rate. Results use the recorded grading for each market. Missing picks, odds and grades stay unavailable; they are not fabricated. Odds shown here are historical American-odds snapshots from the public archive. Historical line movement and additional sportsbook views are available in the interactive archive under its access rules.
Prediction and data methodology · Report a sourced correction
| Matchup | Market | Published pick and confidence | Graded result | Recorded American odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad vs Jack Della Maddalena | Moneyline | Jack Della Maddalena (68.53% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -192 DraftKings / blue: +160 DraftKings / moneyline / red: +575 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -950 |
| Belal Muhammad vs Jack Della Maddalena | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 (87.73% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Belal Muhammad vs Jack Della Maddalena | Over/under significant strikes | Belal Muhammad: Over 77.5 (86.90% confidence); Jack Della Maddalena: Over 71.5 (68.10% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -192 DraftKings / blue: +160 |
| Belal Muhammad vs Jack Della Maddalena | Go the distance | Yes (62.72% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -192 DraftKings / blue: +160 |
| Belal Muhammad vs Jack Della Maddalena | Method of victory | Decision (40.08% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -192 DraftKings / blue: +160 |
| Valentina Shevchenko vs Manon Fiorot | Moneyline | Valentina Shevchenko (63.86% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +105 DraftKings / blue: -125 DraftKings / moneyline / red: -250 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +190 |
| Valentina Shevchenko vs Manon Fiorot | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 (97.78% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Valentina Shevchenko vs Manon Fiorot | Over/under significant strikes | Valentina Shevchenko: Over 88.5 (61.20% confidence); Manon Fiorot: Over 79.5 (70.70% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +105 DraftKings / blue: -125 |
| Valentina Shevchenko vs Manon Fiorot | Go the distance | Yes (64.88% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +105 DraftKings / blue: -125 |
| Valentina Shevchenko vs Manon Fiorot | Method of victory | Decision (41.74% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +105 DraftKings / blue: -125 |
| Jose Aldo vs Aiemann Zahabi | Moneyline | Jose Aldo (66.13% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -205 DraftKings / blue: +170 DraftKings / moneyline / red: -166 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +130 |
| Jose Aldo vs Aiemann Zahabi | Over/under rounds | No pick recorded | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jose Aldo vs Aiemann Zahabi | Over/under significant strikes | No pick recorded | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jose Aldo vs Aiemann Zahabi | Go the distance | No pick recorded | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jose Aldo vs Aiemann Zahabi | Method of victory | No pick recorded | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Alexa Grasso vs Natalia Silva | Moneyline | Natalia Silva (72.55% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +210 DraftKings / blue: -258 DraftKings / moneyline / red: +950 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -1950 |
| Alexa Grasso vs Natalia Silva | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (91.95% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Alexa Grasso vs Natalia Silva | Over/under significant strikes | Alexa Grasso: Over 68.5 (65.50% confidence); Natalia Silva: Over 46.5 (77.57% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / red: +210 DraftKings / blue: -258 |
| Alexa Grasso vs Natalia Silva | Go the distance | Yes (69.30% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +210 DraftKings / blue: -258 |
| Alexa Grasso vs Natalia Silva | Method of victory | KO/TKO (60.79% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +210 DraftKings / blue: -258 |
| Benoît Saint Denis vs Kyle Prepolec | Moneyline | Benoît Saint Denis (59.05% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -8500 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +2000 |
| Benoît Saint Denis vs Kyle Prepolec | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (87.19% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: +140 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -180 |
| Benoît Saint Denis vs Kyle Prepolec | Over/under significant strikes | Benoît Saint Denis: Over 22.5 (81.16% confidence); Kyle Prepolec: Under 14.5 (62.92% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Benoît Saint Denis vs Kyle Prepolec | Go the distance | No (56.90% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Benoît Saint Denis vs Kyle Prepolec | Method of victory | Submission (48.79% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Mike Malott vs Charles Radtke | Moneyline | Mike Malott (55.45% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -166 DraftKings / blue: +140 DraftKings / moneyline / red: -218 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +180 |
| Mike Malott vs Charles Radtke | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (82.46% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -154 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +120 |
| Mike Malott vs Charles Radtke | Over/under significant strikes | Mike Malott: Under 31.5 (62.60% confidence); Charles Radtke: Over 24.5 (72.90% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -166 DraftKings / blue: +140 |
| Mike Malott vs Charles Radtke | Go the distance | No (55.45% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -166 DraftKings / blue: +140 |
| Mike Malott vs Charles Radtke | Method of victory | KO/TKO (46.32% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -166 DraftKings / blue: +140 |
| Jessica Andrade vs Jasmine Jasudavicius | Moneyline | Jasmine Jasudavicius (59.38% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +260 DraftKings / blue: -325 DraftKings / moneyline / red: +250 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -310 |
| Jessica Andrade vs Jasmine Jasudavicius | Over/under rounds | No pick recorded | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jessica Andrade vs Jasmine Jasudavicius | Over/under significant strikes | No pick recorded | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jessica Andrade vs Jasmine Jasudavicius | Go the distance | No pick recorded | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jessica Andrade vs Jasmine Jasudavicius | Method of victory | No pick recorded | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Modestas Bukauskas vs Ion Cutelaba | Moneyline | Modestas Bukauskas (63.28% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +100 DraftKings / blue: -120 DraftKings / moneyline / red: +220 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -298 |
| Modestas Bukauskas vs Ion Cutelaba | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (90.56% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -160 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +124 |
| Modestas Bukauskas vs Ion Cutelaba | Over/under significant strikes | Modestas Bukauskas: Under 26.5 (61.76% confidence); Ion Cutelaba: Over 26.5 (56.80% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / red: +100 DraftKings / blue: -120 |
| Modestas Bukauskas vs Ion Cutelaba | Go the distance | No (56.40% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +100 DraftKings / blue: -120 |
| Modestas Bukauskas vs Ion Cutelaba | Method of victory | KO/TKO (51.30% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +100 DraftKings / blue: -120 |
| Navajo Stirling vs Ivan Erslan | Moneyline | Navajo Stirling (62.30% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -325 DraftKings / blue: +260 DraftKings / moneyline / red: -250 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +190 |
| Navajo Stirling vs Ivan Erslan | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (84.09% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -160 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +124 |
| Navajo Stirling vs Ivan Erslan | Over/under significant strikes | Navajo Stirling: Over 46.5; Ivan Erslan: Over 26.5 | Correct | DraftKings / red: -325 DraftKings / blue: +260 |
| Navajo Stirling vs Ivan Erslan | Go the distance | No (67.10% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -325 DraftKings / blue: +260 |
| Navajo Stirling vs Ivan Erslan | Method of victory | KO/TKO (40.28% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -325 DraftKings / blue: +260 |
| Marc-Andre Barriault vs Bruno Silva | Moneyline | Marc-Andre Barriault (57.83% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -175 DraftKings / blue: +145 DraftKings / moneyline / red: -180 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +150 |
| Marc-Andre Barriault vs Bruno Silva | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5 (57.83% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Marc-Andre Barriault vs Bruno Silva | Over/under significant strikes | Marc-Andre Barriault: Under 39.5 (60.40% confidence); Bruno Silva: Under 30.5 (51.70% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -175 DraftKings / blue: +145 |
| Marc-Andre Barriault vs Bruno Silva | Go the distance | Yes (64.47% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -175 DraftKings / blue: +145 |
| Marc-Andre Barriault vs Bruno Silva | Method of victory | KO/TKO (63.20% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -175 DraftKings / blue: +145 |
| Daniel Santos vs JeongYeong Lee | Moneyline | JeongYeong Lee (58.00% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -135 DraftKings / blue: +114 DraftKings / moneyline / red: -4000 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +1500 |
| Daniel Santos vs JeongYeong Lee | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (58.00% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Daniel Santos vs JeongYeong Lee | Over/under significant strikes | Daniel Santos: Over 45.5 (59.60% confidence); JeongYeong Lee: Over 40.5 (62.20% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -135 DraftKings / blue: +114 |
| Daniel Santos vs JeongYeong Lee | Go the distance | Yes (64.60% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -135 DraftKings / blue: +114 |
| Daniel Santos vs JeongYeong Lee | Method of victory | Decision (46.30% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -135 DraftKings / blue: +114 |
| Brad Katona vs Bekzat Almakhan | Moneyline | Brad Katona (57.20% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -142 DraftKings / blue: +120 DraftKings / moneyline / red: +120 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -142 |
| Brad Katona vs Bekzat Almakhan | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (57.20% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Brad Katona vs Bekzat Almakhan | Over/under significant strikes | Brad Katona: Over 61.5 (57.70% confidence); Bekzat Almakhan: Under 45.5 (47.85% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / red: -142 DraftKings / blue: +120 |
| Brad Katona vs Bekzat Almakhan | Go the distance | Yes (52.40% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -142 DraftKings / blue: +120 |
| Brad Katona vs Bekzat Almakhan | Method of victory | Decision (41.80% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -142 DraftKings / blue: +120 |
Recorded public odds movement
First and last captured prices for each labelled outcome in the public snapshot. These are captured observations, not a claim to have the sportsbook's opening or closing price. The interactive archive provides the available intermediate observations.
| Matchup | Sportsbook | Outcome | First capture | Last capture | Captures |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad vs Jack Della Maddalena | DraftKings | Belal Muhammad | -198 at 2025-02-19T21:01:13.324511-07:00 | +575 at 2025-05-10T23:28:07.868530-06:00 | 48 |
| Belal Muhammad vs Jack Della Maddalena | DraftKings | Jack Della Maddalena | +164 at 2025-02-19T21:01:13.340422-07:00 | -950 at 2025-05-10T23:28:07.868530-06:00 | 48 |
| Valentina Shevchenko vs Manon Fiorot | DraftKings | Manon Fiorot | -122 at 2025-04-16T04:33:09.569784-06:00 | +190 at 2025-05-10T22:33:58.696387-06:00 | 48 |
| Valentina Shevchenko vs Manon Fiorot | DraftKings | Valentina Shevchenko | +102 at 2025-04-16T04:33:09.559518-06:00 | -250 at 2025-05-10T22:33:58.696387-06:00 | 48 |
| Jose Aldo vs Aiemann Zahabi | DraftKings | Aiemann Zahabi | +150 at 2025-04-16T04:33:08.113002-06:00 | +130 at 2025-05-10T21:33:52.698931-06:00 | 29 |
| Jose Aldo vs Aiemann Zahabi | DraftKings | Jose Aldo | -180 at 2025-04-16T04:33:08.107109-06:00 | -166 at 2025-05-10T21:33:52.698931-06:00 | 29 |
| Alexa Grasso vs Natalia Silva | DraftKings | Alexa Grasso | +170 at 2025-04-16T19:32:12.026725-06:00 | +950 at 2025-05-10T20:57:23.418974-06:00 | 48 |
| Alexa Grasso vs Natalia Silva | DraftKings | Natalia Cristina da Silva | -205 at 2025-04-16T19:32:12.030850-06:00 | -1950 at 2025-05-10T20:57:23.418974-06:00 | 48 |
| Benoît Saint Denis vs Kyle Prepolec | DraftKings | Kyle Prepolec | +600 at 2025-05-05T17:56:50.664441-06:00 | +2000 at 2025-05-10T20:32:30.542019-06:00 | 48 |
| Benoît Saint Denis vs Kyle Prepolec | DraftKings | Benoit Saint-Denis | -1050 at 2025-05-05T17:56:50.660417-06:00 | -8500 at 2025-05-10T20:32:30.542019-06:00 | 20 |
| Mike Malott vs Charles Radtke | DraftKings | Charles Radtke | +170 at 2025-05-03T15:47:16.994862-06:00 | +180 at 2025-05-10T08:54:02.086335-06:00 | 23 |
| Mike Malott vs Charles Radtke | DraftKings | Mike Malott | -205 at 2025-05-03T15:47:16.989960-06:00 | -218 at 2025-05-10T08:54:02.086335-06:00 | 23 |
| Jessica Andrade vs Jasmine Jasudavicius | DraftKings | Jasmine Jasudavicius | -278 at 2025-05-03T15:47:16.247636-06:00 | -310 at 2025-05-10T19:13:50.319584-06:00 | 34 |
| Jessica Andrade vs Jasmine Jasudavicius | DraftKings | Jessica Andrade | +225 at 2025-05-03T15:47:16.242811-06:00 | +250 at 2025-05-10T19:13:50.319584-06:00 | 34 |
| Modestas Bukauskas vs Ion Cutelaba | DraftKings | Ion Cutelaba | -122 at 2025-05-03T15:42:31.706575-06:00 | -298 at 2025-05-10T18:57:56.488818-06:00 | 48 |
| Modestas Bukauskas vs Ion Cutelaba | DraftKings | Modestas Bukauskas | +102 at 2025-05-03T15:42:31.702245-06:00 | +220 at 2025-05-10T18:57:56.488818-06:00 | 36 |
| Navajo Stirling vs Ivan Erslan | DraftKings | Ivan Erslan | +235 at 2025-05-03T15:47:17.475423-06:00 | +190 at 2025-05-10T18:23:38.134446-06:00 | 28 |
| Navajo Stirling vs Ivan Erslan | DraftKings | Navajo Stirling | -290 at 2025-05-03T15:47:17.471024-06:00 | -250 at 2025-05-10T18:23:38.134446-06:00 | 28 |
| Marc-Andre Barriault vs Bruno Silva | DraftKings | Marc-André Barriault | -155 at 2025-05-03T15:47:18.012265-06:00 | -180 at 2025-05-10T17:18:57.290037-06:00 | 48 |
| Marc-Andre Barriault vs Bruno Silva | DraftKings | Bruno Silva | +130 at 2025-05-03T15:47:18.016635-06:00 | +150 at 2025-05-10T17:18:57.290037-06:00 | 28 |
| Brad Katona vs Bekzat Almakhan | DraftKings | Bekzat Almakhan | -175 at 2025-05-03T15:42:30.372854-06:00 | -142 at 2025-05-10T16:32:06.246372-06:00 | 42 |
| Brad Katona vs Bekzat Almakhan | DraftKings | Brad Katona | +145 at 2025-05-03T15:42:30.368700-06:00 | +120 at 2025-05-10T16:32:06.246372-06:00 | 38 |