UFC 318 Holloway vs Poirier prediction records
Event date: . 14 recorded matchups.
These records preserve the published predictions after the event. Confidence is a model estimate, not a guarantee or the archive win rate. Results use the recorded grading for each market. Missing picks, odds and grades stay unavailable; they are not fabricated. Odds shown here are historical American-odds snapshots from the public archive. Historical line movement and additional sportsbook views are available in the interactive archive under its access rules.
Prediction and data methodology · Report a sourced correction
| Matchup | Market | Published pick and confidence | Graded result | Recorded American odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier | Moneyline | Dustin Poirier (61.26% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -135 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +114 |
| Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 (58.75% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -20000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1200 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -600 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +375 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -400 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +260 DraftKings / rounds / 3.5 / over: -250 DraftKings / rounds / 3.5 / under: +175 DraftKings / rounds / 4.5 / over: -135 DraftKings / rounds / 4.5 / under: +105 |
| Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier | Over/under significant strikes | Max Holloway: Over 139.5 (71.16% confidence); Dustin Poirier: Under 119.5 (59.82% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 118.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 118.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 147.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 147.5 / under: -115 |
| Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier | Go the distance | Yes (54.45% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -138 DraftKings / distance / no: +105 |
| Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier | Method of victory | Decision (54.80% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +240 DraftKings / method / Decision: +325 DraftKings / method / Submission: +250 |
| Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov | Moneyline | Paulo Costa (54.10% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +164 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -198 |
| Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (63.35% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -2500 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +800 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -400 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +275 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -153 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +117 |
| Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov | Over/under significant strikes | Paulo Costa: Over 64.5 (58.75% confidence); Roman Kopylov: Under 74.5 (65.10% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 69.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 69.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 78.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 78.5 / under: -115 |
| Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov | Go the distance | Yes (55.50% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -148 DraftKings / distance / no: +116 |
| Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov | Method of victory | Decision (58.25% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +100 DraftKings / method / Decision: +330 DraftKings / method / Submission: +340 |
| Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez | Moneyline | Kevin Holland (72.10% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -600 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +440 |
| Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (52.45% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez | Over/under significant strikes | Kevin Holland: Under 45.5 (59.20% confidence); Daniel Rodriguez: Over 38.5 (60.30% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez | Go the distance | No (60.45% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez | Method of victory | Submission (51.70% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Dan Ige vs Patricio Pitbull | Moneyline | Dan Ige (51.52% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -205 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +170 |
| Dan Ige vs Patricio Pitbull | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (72.45% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -5000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1000 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -549 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +350 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -223 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +176 |
| Dan Ige vs Patricio Pitbull | Over/under significant strikes | Dan Ige: Over 52.5 (59.38% confidence); Patricio Pitbull: Under 41.5 (55.90% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 55.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 55.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 40.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 40.5 / under: -115 |
| Dan Ige vs Patricio Pitbull | Go the distance | Yes (72.00% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -220 DraftKings / distance / no: +165 |
| Dan Ige vs Patricio Pitbull | Method of victory | Decision (69.95% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +750 DraftKings / method / Decision: +235 DraftKings / method / Submission: +250 |
| Michael Johnson vs Daniel Zellhuber | Moneyline | Daniel Zellhuber (80.98% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +550 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -800 |
| Michael Johnson vs Daniel Zellhuber | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (66.20% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1400 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +600 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -210 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +177 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: +105 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -138 |
| Michael Johnson vs Daniel Zellhuber | Over/under significant strikes | Michael Johnson: Over 45.5 (60.55% confidence); Daniel Zellhuber: Under 62.5 (67.25% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 58.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 58.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 40.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 40.5 / under: -115 |
| Michael Johnson vs Daniel Zellhuber | Go the distance | Yes (74.90% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +138 DraftKings / distance / no: -169 |
| Michael Johnson vs Daniel Zellhuber | Method of victory | Decision (55.45% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: -135 DraftKings / method / Decision: -110 DraftKings / method / Submission: -125 |
| Kyler Phillips vs Vinicius Oliveira | Moneyline | Vinicius Oliveira (64.35% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +124 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -148 |
| Kyler Phillips vs Vinicius Oliveira | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (55.20% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Kyler Phillips vs Vinicius Oliveira | Over/under significant strikes | Kyler Phillips: Over 50.5 (57.75% confidence); Vinicius Oliveira: Under 55.5 (60.07% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Kyler Phillips vs Vinicius Oliveira | Go the distance | Yes (81.45% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Kyler Phillips vs Vinicius Oliveira | Method of victory | Decision (61.35% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen | Moneyline | Marvin Vettori (77.80% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +150 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -180 |
| Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (54.60% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen | Over/under significant strikes | Marvin Vettori: Over 61.5 (63.60% confidence); Brendan Allen: Under 49.5 (57.09% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen | Go the distance | Yes (52.70% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen | Method of victory | Decision (57.75% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Francisco Prado vs Nikolay Veretennikov | Moneyline | Nikolay Veretennikov (66.10% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -130 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +110 |
| Francisco Prado vs Nikolay Veretennikov | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 (77.20% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Francisco Prado vs Nikolay Veretennikov | Over/under significant strikes | Francisco Prado: Over 53.5 (60.75% confidence); Nikolay Veretennikov: Under 47.5 (53.84% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Francisco Prado vs Nikolay Veretennikov | Go the distance | Yes (66.15% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Francisco Prado vs Nikolay Veretennikov | Method of victory | Decision (54.45% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Ateba Gautier vs Robert Valentin | Moneyline | Ateba Gautier (69.62% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -485 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +370 |
| Ateba Gautier vs Robert Valentin | Over/under rounds | Under 1.5, 2.5 (56.65% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Ateba Gautier vs Robert Valentin | Over/under significant strikes | Ateba Gautier: Under 42.5 (49.74% confidence); Robert Valentin: Under 48.5 (58.30% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Ateba Gautier vs Robert Valentin | Go the distance | No (62.96% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Ateba Gautier vs Robert Valentin | Method of victory | KO/TKO (82.45% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Adam Fugitt vs Islam Dulatov | Moneyline | Islam Dulatov (87.75% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +410 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -550 |
| Adam Fugitt vs Islam Dulatov | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (66.60% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Adam Fugitt vs Islam Dulatov | Over/under significant strikes | Adam Fugitt: Under 46.5 (53.79% confidence); Islam Dulatov: Under 59.5 (62.85% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Adam Fugitt vs Islam Dulatov | Go the distance | No (84.50% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Adam Fugitt vs Islam Dulatov | Method of victory | KO/TKO (79.75% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jimmy Crute vs Marcin Prachnio | Moneyline | Jimmy Crute (59.20% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -360 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +285 |
| Jimmy Crute vs Marcin Prachnio | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (60.50% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jimmy Crute vs Marcin Prachnio | Over/under significant strikes | Jimmy Crute: Under 49.5 (61.25% confidence); Marcin Prachnio: Under 35.5 (54.65% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jimmy Crute vs Marcin Prachnio | Go the distance | Yes (51.90% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jimmy Crute vs Marcin Prachnio | Method of victory | Decision (52.81% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Ryan Spann vs Lukasz Brzeski | Moneyline | Ryan Spann (52.20% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -230 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +190 |
| Ryan Spann vs Lukasz Brzeski | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (55.10% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Ryan Spann vs Lukasz Brzeski | Over/under significant strikes | Ryan Spann: Under 44.5 (66.15% confidence); Lukasz Brzeski: Under 31.5 (52.66% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Ryan Spann vs Lukasz Brzeski | Go the distance | No (66.95% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Ryan Spann vs Lukasz Brzeski | Method of victory | KO/TKO (56.70% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Brunno Ferreira vs Jackson McVey | Moneyline | Brunno Ferreira (79.20% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -485 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +370 |
| Brunno Ferreira vs Jackson McVey | Over/under rounds | Under 2.5 (65.88% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Brunno Ferreira vs Jackson McVey | Over/under significant strikes | Brunno Ferreira: Under 57.5 (64.35% confidence); Jackson McVey: Under 41.5 (53.90% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Brunno Ferreira vs Jackson McVey | Go the distance | No (76.65% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Brunno Ferreira vs Jackson McVey | Method of victory | KO/TKO (79.00% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Carli Judice vs Nicolle Caliari | Moneyline | Carli Judice (61.95% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -280 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +210 |
| Carli Judice vs Nicolle Caliari | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (52.25% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Carli Judice vs Nicolle Caliari | Over/under significant strikes | Carli Judice: Over 58.5 (67.84% confidence); Nicolle Caliari: Under 45.5 (52.34% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Carli Judice vs Nicolle Caliari | Go the distance | No (74.20% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Carli Judice vs Nicolle Caliari | Method of victory | KO/TKO (60.10% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
Recorded public odds movement
First and last captured prices for each labelled outcome in the public snapshot. These are captured observations, not a claim to have the sportsbook's opening or closing price. The interactive archive provides the available intermediate observations.
| Matchup | Sportsbook | Outcome | First capture | Last capture | Captures |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier | DraftKings | Dustin Poirier | +130 at 2025-04-25T12:48:37.879472-06:00 | +114 at 2025-07-19T22:44:45.139688-06:00 | 48 |
| Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier | DraftKings | Max Holloway | -155 at 2025-04-25T12:48:37.870512-06:00 | -135 at 2025-07-19T22:44:45.139688-06:00 | 48 |
| Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov | DraftKings | Paulo Costa | -122 at 2025-07-02T16:13:29.824650-06:00 | +164 at 2025-07-19T21:48:00.070619-06:00 | 22 |
| Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov | DraftKings | Roman Kopylov | +102 at 2025-07-02T16:13:29.828188-06:00 | -198 at 2025-07-19T21:48:00.070653-06:00 | 22 |
| Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez | DraftKings | Daniel Rodriguez | +310 at 2025-07-09T15:16:52.430179-06:00 | +440 at 2025-07-19T21:16:01.493771-06:00 | 16 |
| Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez | DraftKings | Kevin Holland | -395 at 2025-07-09T15:16:52.430132-06:00 | -600 at 2025-07-19T21:16:01.493728-06:00 | 16 |
| Dan Ige vs Patricio Pitbull | DraftKings | Dan Ige | +100 at 2025-07-02T16:13:29.416080-06:00 | -205 at 2025-07-19T17:44:42.640869-06:00 | 12 |
| Dan Ige vs Patricio Pitbull | DraftKings | Patricio Freire | -120 at 2025-07-02T16:13:29.420398-06:00 | +170 at 2025-07-19T17:44:42.640898-06:00 | 12 |
| Michael Johnson vs Daniel Zellhuber | DraftKings | Daniel Zellhuber | -278 at 2025-07-02T16:13:30.387955-06:00 | -800 at 2025-07-19T15:48:00.760496-06:00 | 16 |
| Michael Johnson vs Daniel Zellhuber | DraftKings | Michael Johnson | +225 at 2025-07-02T16:13:30.382322-06:00 | +550 at 2025-07-19T15:48:00.760466-06:00 | 16 |
| Kyler Phillips vs Vinicius Oliveira | DraftKings | Kyler Phillips | +140 at 2025-07-09T15:16:52.423557-06:00 | +124 at 2025-07-19T19:46:09.901032-06:00 | 16 |
| Kyler Phillips vs Vinicius Oliveira | DraftKings | Vinicius de Oliveira | -166 at 2025-07-09T15:16:52.423683-06:00 | -148 at 2025-07-19T19:46:09.901063-06:00 | 16 |
| Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen | DraftKings | Brendan Allen | -298 at 2025-07-02T14:44:26.241702-06:00 | -180 at 2025-07-19T17:44:42.628072-06:00 | 14 |
| Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen | DraftKings | Marvin Vettori | +240 at 2025-07-02T14:44:26.235596-06:00 | +150 at 2025-07-19T17:44:42.628042-06:00 | 14 |
| Francisco Prado vs Nikolay Veretennikov | DraftKings | Francisco Prado | -135 at 2025-07-09T15:16:52.428497-06:00 | -130 at 2025-07-19T11:51:04.579285-06:00 | 9 |
| Francisco Prado vs Nikolay Veretennikov | DraftKings | Nikolay Veretennikov | +114 at 2025-07-09T15:16:52.428547-06:00 | +110 at 2025-07-19T11:51:04.579315-06:00 | 9 |
| Ateba Gautier vs Robert Valentin | DraftKings | Ateba Abega Gautier | -395 at 2025-07-02T16:13:27.215203-06:00 | -485 at 2025-07-19T18:15:48.178979-06:00 | 13 |
| Ateba Gautier vs Robert Valentin | DraftKings | Robert Valentin | +310 at 2025-07-02T16:13:27.219519-06:00 | +370 at 2025-07-19T18:15:48.179010-06:00 | 13 |
| Adam Fugitt vs Islam Dulatov | DraftKings | Adam Fugitt | +380 at 2025-06-24T08:20:17.373348-06:00 | +410 at 2025-07-19T17:14:21.376059-06:00 | 17 |
| Adam Fugitt vs Islam Dulatov | DraftKings | Islam Dulatov | -580 at 2025-06-24T08:20:17.516809-06:00 | -550 at 2025-07-19T17:14:21.376087-06:00 | 17 |
| Jimmy Crute vs Marcin Prachnio | DraftKings | Jim Crute | -238 at 2025-07-09T15:16:52.426850-06:00 | -360 at 2025-07-19T15:48:00.731589-06:00 | 14 |
| Jimmy Crute vs Marcin Prachnio | DraftKings | Marcin Prachnio | +195 at 2025-07-09T15:16:52.426896-06:00 | +285 at 2025-07-19T15:48:00.731664-06:00 | 14 |
| Ryan Spann vs Lukasz Brzeski | DraftKings | Lukasz Brzeski | +180 at 2025-07-09T15:16:52.431795-06:00 | +190 at 2025-07-19T16:48:26.186774-06:00 | 7 |
| Ryan Spann vs Lukasz Brzeski | DraftKings | Ryan Spann | -218 at 2025-07-09T15:16:52.431749-06:00 | -230 at 2025-07-19T16:48:26.186736-06:00 | 7 |
| Brunno Ferreira vs Jackson McVey | DraftKings | Brunno Ferreira | -600 at 2025-07-09T15:16:52.433356-06:00 | -485 at 2025-07-19T16:18:34.286361-06:00 | 8 |
| Brunno Ferreira vs Jackson McVey | DraftKings | Jackson McVey | +440 at 2025-07-09T15:16:52.433400-06:00 | +370 at 2025-07-19T16:18:34.286390-06:00 | 8 |
| Carli Judice vs Nicolle Caliari | DraftKings | Carli Judice | -250 at 2025-07-09T15:16:52.425242-06:00 | -280 at 2025-07-19T16:18:35.597747-06:00 | 16 |
| Carli Judice vs Nicolle Caliari | DraftKings | Nicolle Caliari | +205 at 2025-07-09T15:16:52.425287-06:00 | +210 at 2025-07-19T16:18:35.597747-06:00 | 15 |