UFC 319 Du Plessis vs Chimaev prediction records
Event date: . 12 recorded matchups.
These records preserve the published predictions after the event. Confidence is a model estimate, not a guarantee or the archive win rate. Results use the recorded grading for each market. Missing picks, odds and grades stay unavailable; they are not fabricated. Odds shown here are historical American-odds snapshots from the public archive. Historical line movement and additional sportsbook views are available in the interactive archive under its access rules.
Prediction and data methodology · Report a sourced correction
| Matchup | Market | Published pick and confidence | Graded result | Recorded American odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev | Moneyline | Dricus Du Plessis (57.63% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +220 DraftKings / blue: -270 DraftKings / moneyline / red: +230 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -285 |
| Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 (81.33% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +215 DraftKings / blue: -265 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +500 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -188 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +140 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -117 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -108 DraftKings / rounds / 3.5 / over: +150 DraftKings / rounds / 3.5 / under: -200 DraftKings / rounds / 4.5 / over: +220 DraftKings / rounds / 4.5 / under: -300 |
| Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev | Over/under significant strikes | Dricus Du Plessis: Over 79.5 (62.42% confidence); Khamzat Chimaev: Over 76.5 (59.78% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +220 DraftKings / blue: -270 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 53.5 / over: -170 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 53.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 42.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 42.5 / under: -115 |
| Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev | Go the distance | Yes (87.30% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +220 DraftKings / blue: -270 DraftKings / distance / yes: +247 DraftKings / distance / no: -316 |
| Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev | Method of victory | Decision (42.33% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +220 DraftKings / blue: -270 DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: -165 DraftKings / method / Decision: +380 DraftKings / method / Submission: -155 |
| Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico | Moneyline | Lerone Murphy (61.45% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +142 DraftKings / blue: -170 DraftKings / moneyline / red: +130 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -155 |
| Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (54.75% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico | Over/under significant strikes | Lerone Murphy: Under 55.5 (59.63% confidence); Aaron Pico: Under 48.5 (58.40% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +142 DraftKings / blue: -170 |
| Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico | Go the distance | Yes (64.15% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +142 DraftKings / blue: -170 |
| Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico | Method of victory | Decision (68.10% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +142 DraftKings / blue: -170 |
| Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates | Moneyline | Carlos Prates (70.93% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +164 DraftKings / blue: -198 DraftKings / moneyline / red: +145 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -175 |
| Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (86.58% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates | Over/under significant strikes | Geoff Neal: Under 49.5 (63.58% confidence); Carlos Prates: Under 51.5 (66.08% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +164 DraftKings / blue: -198 |
| Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates | Go the distance | No (85.06% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +164 DraftKings / blue: -198 |
| Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates | Method of victory | KO/TKO (53.84% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +164 DraftKings / blue: -198 |
| Jared Cannonier vs Michael Page | Moneyline | Michael Page (69.78% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +170 DraftKings / blue: -205 DraftKings / moneyline / red: +180 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -218 |
| Jared Cannonier vs Michael Page | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (84.01% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jared Cannonier vs Michael Page | Over/under significant strikes | Jared Cannonier: Over 36.5 (53.47% confidence); Michael Page: Over 43.5 (60.15% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +170 DraftKings / blue: -205 |
| Jared Cannonier vs Michael Page | Go the distance | Yes (66.48% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +170 DraftKings / blue: -205 |
| Jared Cannonier vs Michael Page | Method of victory | Decision (69.78% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +170 DraftKings / blue: -205 |
| Tim Elliott vs Kai Asakura | Moneyline | Kai Asakura (85.80% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +240 DraftKings / blue: -298 DraftKings / moneyline / red: +245 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -305 |
| Tim Elliott vs Kai Asakura | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (71.25% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Tim Elliott vs Kai Asakura | Over/under significant strikes | Tim Elliott: Under 39.5 (59.53% confidence); Kai Asakura: Under 46.5 (64.06% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +240 DraftKings / blue: -298 |
| Tim Elliott vs Kai Asakura | Go the distance | No (84.53% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +240 DraftKings / blue: -298 |
| Tim Elliott vs Kai Asakura | Method of victory | KO/TKO (42.60% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +240 DraftKings / blue: -298 |
| Baisangur Susurkaev vs Eric Nolan | Moneyline | Baisangur Susurkaev (64.33% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -1050 DraftKings / blue: +675 DraftKings / moneyline / red: -1000 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +650 |
| Baisangur Susurkaev vs Eric Nolan | Over/under rounds | Under 1.5, 2.5 (68.98% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Baisangur Susurkaev vs Eric Nolan | Over/under significant strikes | Baisangur Susurkaev: Under 27.5 (60.67% confidence); Eric Nolan: Over 16.5 (53.73% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -1050 DraftKings / blue: +675 |
| Baisangur Susurkaev vs Eric Nolan | Go the distance | No (86.35% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -1050 DraftKings / blue: +675 |
| Baisangur Susurkaev vs Eric Nolan | Method of victory | KO/TKO (49.63% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -1050 DraftKings / blue: +675 |
| Gerald Meerschaert vs Michal Oleksiejczuk | Moneyline | Gerald Meerschaert (60.35% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +180 DraftKings / blue: -218 DraftKings / moneyline / red: +180 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -218 |
| Gerald Meerschaert vs Michal Oleksiejczuk | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (77.43% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Gerald Meerschaert vs Michal Oleksiejczuk | Over/under significant strikes | Gerald Meerschaert: Under 23.5 (54.53% confidence); Michal Oleksiejczuk: Under 30.5 (53.95% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +180 DraftKings / blue: -218 |
| Gerald Meerschaert vs Michal Oleksiejczuk | Go the distance | No (85.65% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +180 DraftKings / blue: -218 |
| Gerald Meerschaert vs Michal Oleksiejczuk | Method of victory | Submission (49.43% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +180 DraftKings / blue: -218 |
| Jéssica Andrade vs Loopy Godinez | Moneyline | Jéssica Andrade (69.18% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +120 DraftKings / blue: -142 DraftKings / moneyline / red: +130 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -155 |
| Jéssica Andrade vs Loopy Godinez | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (54.90% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jéssica Andrade vs Loopy Godinez | Over/under significant strikes | Jéssica Andrade: Over 58.5 (62.23% confidence); Loopy Godinez: Under 65.5 (56.36% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / red: +120 DraftKings / blue: -142 |
| Jéssica Andrade vs Loopy Godinez | Go the distance | No (51.93% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +120 DraftKings / blue: -142 |
| Jéssica Andrade vs Loopy Godinez | Method of victory | KO/TKO (46.48% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +120 DraftKings / blue: -142 |
| Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez | Moneyline | Chase Hooper (53.83% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +285 DraftKings / blue: -360 DraftKings / moneyline / red: -360 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +285 |
| Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (76.78% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez | Over/under significant strikes | Chase Hooper: Under 44.5 (65.63% confidence); Alexander Hernandez: Under 37.5 (62.46% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +285 DraftKings / blue: -360 |
| Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez | Go the distance | No (86.00% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +285 DraftKings / blue: -360 |
| Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez | Method of victory | Submission (40.20% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +285 DraftKings / blue: -360 |
| Edson Barboza vs Drakkar Klose | Moneyline | Edson Barboza (60.80% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -115 DraftKings / blue: -105 DraftKings / moneyline / red: -118 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -102 |
| Edson Barboza vs Drakkar Klose | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (66.63% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Edson Barboza vs Drakkar Klose | Over/under significant strikes | Edson Barboza: Over 51.5 (60.90% confidence); Drakkar Klose: Over 53.5 (55.33% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / red: -115 DraftKings / blue: -105 |
| Edson Barboza vs Drakkar Klose | Go the distance | Yes (69.35% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -115 DraftKings / blue: -105 |
| Edson Barboza vs Drakkar Klose | Method of victory | Decision (57.78% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -115 DraftKings / blue: -105 |
| Karine Silva vs Dione Barbosa | Moneyline | Karine Silva (68.45% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -192 DraftKings / blue: +160 DraftKings / moneyline / red: -192 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +160 |
| Karine Silva vs Dione Barbosa | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (52.75% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Karine Silva vs Dione Barbosa | Over/under significant strikes | Karine Silva: Under 37.5 (58.13% confidence); Dione Barbosa: Under 35.5 (57.56% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -192 DraftKings / blue: +160 |
| Karine Silva vs Dione Barbosa | Go the distance | No (49.76% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -192 DraftKings / blue: +160 |
| Karine Silva vs Dione Barbosa | Method of victory | Submission (41.65% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -192 DraftKings / blue: +160 |
| Alibi Idiris vs Joseph Morales | Moneyline | Alibi Idiris (72.45% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -470 DraftKings / blue: +360 DraftKings / moneyline / red: -485 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +370 |
| Alibi Idiris vs Joseph Morales | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (55.66% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Alibi Idiris vs Joseph Morales | Over/under significant strikes | Alibi Idiris: Under 45.5 (57.35% confidence); Joseph Morales: Under 38.5 (55.39% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -470 DraftKings / blue: +360 |
| Alibi Idiris vs Joseph Morales | Go the distance | No (62.25% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -470 DraftKings / blue: +360 |
| Alibi Idiris vs Joseph Morales | Method of victory | Submission (50.99% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -470 DraftKings / blue: +360 |
Recorded public odds movement
First and last captured prices for each labelled outcome in the public snapshot. These are captured observations, not a claim to have the sportsbook's opening or closing price. The interactive archive provides the available intermediate observations.
| Matchup | Sportsbook | Outcome | First capture | Last capture | Captures |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev | DraftKings | Dricus Du Plessis | +185 at 2025-04-16T16:37:16.042684-06:00 | +230 at 2025-08-16T22:17:27.146898-06:00 | 48 |
| Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev | DraftKings | Khamzat Chimaev | -225 at 2025-04-16T16:37:16.047293-06:00 | -285 at 2025-08-16T22:17:27.146930-06:00 | 48 |
| Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico | DraftKings | Aaron Pico | -148 at 2025-08-07T15:15:39.630876-06:00 | -155 at 2025-08-16T21:18:01.073106-06:00 | 34 |
| Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico | DraftKings | Lerone Murphy | +124 at 2025-08-07T15:15:39.630819-06:00 | +130 at 2025-08-16T21:18:01.073075-06:00 | 34 |
| Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates | DraftKings | Carlos Prates | -258 at 2025-08-07T15:15:39.629470-06:00 | -175 at 2025-08-16T21:18:01.067489-06:00 | 16 |
| Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates | DraftKings | Geoff Neal | +210 at 2025-08-07T15:15:39.629422-06:00 | +145 at 2025-08-16T21:18:01.067429-06:00 | 16 |
| Jared Cannonier vs Michael Page | DraftKings | Jared Cannonier | +142 at 2025-07-03T17:43:25.459358-06:00 | +180 at 2025-08-16T17:50:42.484396-06:00 | 26 |
| Jared Cannonier vs Michael Page | DraftKings | Michael Page | -170 at 2025-07-03T17:43:25.466758-06:00 | -218 at 2025-08-16T17:50:42.484425-06:00 | 26 |
| Tim Elliott vs Kai Asakura | DraftKings | Kai Asakura | -345 at 2025-07-03T17:43:26.171877-06:00 | -305 at 2025-08-16T20:18:33.164978-06:00 | 17 |
| Tim Elliott vs Kai Asakura | DraftKings | Tim Elliott | +275 at 2025-07-03T17:43:26.167177-06:00 | +245 at 2025-08-16T20:18:33.164936-06:00 | 17 |
| Baisangur Susurkaev vs Eric Nolan | DraftKings | Baysangur Susurkaev | -800 at 2025-08-14T13:22:15.996428-06:00 | -1000 at 2025-08-16T17:50:42.467611-06:00 | 9 |
| Baisangur Susurkaev vs Eric Nolan | DraftKings | Eric Nolan | +550 at 2025-08-14T13:22:15.996523-06:00 | +650 at 2025-08-16T17:50:42.467639-06:00 | 9 |
| Gerald Meerschaert vs Michal Oleksiejczuk | DraftKings | Gerald Meerschaert | +240 at 2025-07-03T17:43:23.838639-06:00 | +180 at 2025-08-16T19:18:21.485241-06:00 | 13 |
| Gerald Meerschaert vs Michal Oleksiejczuk | DraftKings | Michał Oleksiejczuk | -298 at 2025-07-03T17:43:23.841745-06:00 | -218 at 2025-08-16T19:18:21.485274-06:00 | 13 |
| Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez | DraftKings | Alexander Hernandez | +205 at 2025-07-03T17:43:21.779136-06:00 | +285 at 2025-08-16T15:18:36.982310-06:00 | 30 |
| Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez | DraftKings | Chase Hooper | -250 at 2025-07-03T17:43:21.831645-06:00 | -360 at 2025-08-16T15:18:36.982276-06:00 | 30 |
| Edson Barboza vs Drakkar Klose | DraftKings | Drakkar Klose | +130 at 2025-07-03T17:43:24.965323-06:00 | -102 at 2025-08-16T17:50:42.423790-06:00 | 29 |
| Edson Barboza vs Drakkar Klose | DraftKings | Edson Barboza | -155 at 2025-07-03T17:43:24.960152-06:00 | -118 at 2025-08-16T17:50:42.423754-06:00 | 29 |
| Karine Silva vs Dione Barbosa | DraftKings | Dione Barbosa | +180 at 2025-08-12T12:46:29.455110-06:00 | +160 at 2025-08-16T17:18:16.682321-06:00 | 12 |
| Karine Silva vs Dione Barbosa | DraftKings | Karine Silva | -218 at 2025-08-12T12:46:29.455022-06:00 | -192 at 2025-08-16T17:18:16.682279-06:00 | 12 |
| Alibi Idiris vs Joseph Morales | DraftKings | Alibi Idiris | -455 at 2025-08-15T10:06:22.730667-06:00 | -485 at 2025-08-16T16:48:17.684455-06:00 | 6 |
| Alibi Idiris vs Joseph Morales | DraftKings | Joseph Morales | +350 at 2025-08-15T10:06:22.730750-06:00 | +370 at 2025-08-16T16:48:17.684487-06:00 | 6 |