UFC Fight Night Ulberg vs Reyes prediction records
Event date: . 12 recorded matchups.
These records preserve the published predictions after the event. Confidence is a model estimate, not a guarantee or the archive win rate. Results use the recorded grading for each market. Missing picks, odds and grades stay unavailable; they are not fabricated. Odds shown here are historical American-odds snapshots from the public archive. Historical line movement and additional sportsbook views are available in the interactive archive under its access rules.
Prediction and data methodology · Report a sourced correction
| Matchup | Market | Published pick and confidence | Graded result | Recorded American odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes | Moneyline | Carlos Ulberg (71.50% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -245 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +200 |
| Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 3.5, 4.5 (71.24% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes | Over/under significant strikes | Carlos Ulberg: Over 51.5 (67.50% confidence); Dominick Reyes: Over 45.5 (61.49% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes | Go the distance | No (79.50% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes | Method of victory | KO/TKO (57.60% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan | Moneyline | Jimmy Crute (61.68% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -238 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +195 |
| Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (88.78% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan | Over/under significant strikes | Jimmy Crute: Under 31.5 (68.01% confidence); Ivan Erslan: Under 22.5 (59.15% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan | Go the distance | No (83.60% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan | Method of victory | Submission (36.23% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jack Jenkins vs Ramon Taveras | Moneyline | Jack Jenkins (62.50% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -290 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +235 |
| Jack Jenkins vs Ramon Taveras | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (89.78% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jack Jenkins vs Ramon Taveras | Over/under significant strikes | Jack Jenkins: Over 44.5 (62.07% confidence); Ramon Taveras: Under 63.5 (70.41% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jack Jenkins vs Ramon Taveras | Go the distance | No (89.67% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jack Jenkins vs Ramon Taveras | Method of victory | KO/TKO (51.83% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny | Moneyline | Jake Matthews (54.93% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -310 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +250 |
| Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (73.75% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny | Over/under significant strikes | Jake Matthews: Over 41.5 (63.97% confidence); Neil Magny: Over 34.5 (50.56% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny | Go the distance | No (82.48% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny | Method of victory | Submission (45.68% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell | Moneyline | Tom Nolan (71.35% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -162 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +136 |
| Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (96.59% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell | Over/under significant strikes | Tom Nolan: Over 40.5 (58.39% confidence); Charlie Campbell: Under 36.5 (50.23% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell | Go the distance | Yes (75.61% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell | Method of victory | Decision (49.48% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Navajo Stirling vs Rodolfo Bellato | Moneyline | Navajo Stirling (86.13% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -298 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +240 |
| Navajo Stirling vs Rodolfo Bellato | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (84.54% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Navajo Stirling vs Rodolfo Bellato | Over/under significant strikes | Navajo Stirling: Over 53.5 (56.75% confidence); Rodolfo Bellato: Over 39.5 (62.52% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Navajo Stirling vs Rodolfo Bellato | Go the distance | Yes (79.53% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Navajo Stirling vs Rodolfo Bellato | Method of victory | Decision (46.23% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Cam Rowston vs Andre Petroski | Moneyline | Andre Petroski (78.45% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +154 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -185 |
| Cam Rowston vs Andre Petroski | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (74.52% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Cam Rowston vs Andre Petroski | Over/under significant strikes | Cam Rowston: Over 27.5 (68.62% confidence); Andre Petroski: Over 26.5 (54.93% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Cam Rowston vs Andre Petroski | Go the distance | Yes (71.40% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Cam Rowston vs Andre Petroski | Method of victory | Decision (54.26% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jamie Mullarkey vs Rolando Bedoya | Moneyline | Jamie Mullarkey (61.05% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -135 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +114 |
| Jamie Mullarkey vs Rolando Bedoya | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (86.78% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jamie Mullarkey vs Rolando Bedoya | Over/under significant strikes | Jamie Mullarkey: Over 56.5 (55.82% confidence); Rolando Bedoya: Over 62.5 (63.48% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jamie Mullarkey vs Rolando Bedoya | Go the distance | Yes (86.65% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jamie Mullarkey vs Rolando Bedoya | Method of victory | Decision (47.00% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa | Moneyline | Colby Thicknesse (60.21% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +136 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -162 |
| Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (83.03% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa | Over/under significant strikes | Colby Thicknesse: Under 38.5 (61.72% confidence); Josias Musasa: Under 42.5 (56.31% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa | Go the distance | No (87.37% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa | Method of victory | Submission (50.03% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Michelle Montague vs Luana Carolina | Moneyline | Michelle Montague (54.75% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -205 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +170 |
| Michelle Montague vs Luana Carolina | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (50.11% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Michelle Montague vs Luana Carolina | Over/under significant strikes | Michelle Montague: Under 54.5 (65.22% confidence); Luana Carolina: Under 49.5 (52.54% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Michelle Montague vs Luana Carolina | Go the distance | No (58.62% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Michelle Montague vs Luana Carolina | Method of victory | Submission (61.78% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Brando Peričić vs Elisha Ellison | Moneyline | Brando Pericic (52.90% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -230 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +190 |
| Brando Peričić vs Elisha Ellison | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (62.10% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Brando Peričić vs Elisha Ellison | Over/under significant strikes | Brando Peričić: Over 19.5 (59.85% confidence); Elisha Ellison: Under 15.5 (61.79% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Brando Peričić vs Elisha Ellison | Go the distance | No (67.26% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Brando Peričić vs Elisha Ellison | Method of victory | KO/TKO (58.45% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Loma Lookboonmee vs Alexia Thainara | Moneyline | Alexia Thainara (83.70% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +190 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -230 |
| Loma Lookboonmee vs Alexia Thainara | Over/under rounds | Under 1.5, 2.5 (85.46% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Loma Lookboonmee vs Alexia Thainara | Over/under significant strikes | Loma Lookboonmee: Under 53.5 (64.78$ confidence); Alexia Thainara: Under 41.5 (59.11% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Loma Lookboonmee vs Alexia Thainara | Go the distance | No (82.53% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Loma Lookboonmee vs Alexia Thainara | Method of victory | Submission (37.95% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
Recorded public odds movement
First and last captured prices for each labelled outcome in the public snapshot. These are captured observations, not a claim to have the sportsbook's opening or closing price. The interactive archive provides the available intermediate observations.
| Matchup | Sportsbook | Outcome | First capture | Last capture | Captures |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes | DraftKings | Carlos Ulberg | -238 at 2025-09-17T10:11:28.273442-06:00 | -245 at 2025-09-27T22:13:23.547184-06:00 | 10 |
| Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes | DraftKings | Dominick Reyes | +195 at 2025-09-17T10:11:28.275662-06:00 | +200 at 2025-09-27T22:13:23.547230-06:00 | 10 |
| Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan | DraftKings | Ivan Erslan | +154 at 2025-09-17T10:11:28.216396-06:00 | +195 at 2025-09-27T21:12:33.180799-06:00 | 10 |
| Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan | DraftKings | Jim Crute | -185 at 2025-09-17T10:11:28.213370-06:00 | -238 at 2025-09-27T21:12:33.180772-06:00 | 10 |
| Jack Jenkins vs Ramon Taveras | DraftKings | Jack Jenkins | -285 at 2025-09-17T10:11:28.242430-06:00 | -290 at 2025-09-27T21:12:33.174990-06:00 | 11 |
| Jack Jenkins vs Ramon Taveras | DraftKings | Ramon Taveras | +230 at 2025-09-17T10:11:28.242527-06:00 | +235 at 2025-09-27T21:12:33.175030-06:00 | 11 |
| Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny | DraftKings | Jake Matthews | -410 at 2025-09-17T10:11:28.197409-06:00 | -310 at 2025-09-27T19:42:23.621080-06:00 | 15 |
| Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny | DraftKings | Neil Magny | +320 at 2025-09-17T10:11:28.197543-06:00 | +250 at 2025-09-27T19:42:23.621122-06:00 | 15 |
| Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell | DraftKings | Charlie Campbell | +136 at 2025-09-18T11:22:13.885405-06:00 | +136 at 2025-09-27T20:12:30.900588-06:00 | 12 |
| Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell | DraftKings | Tom Nolan | -162 at 2025-09-18T11:22:13.885334-06:00 | -162 at 2025-09-27T20:12:30.900537-06:00 | 12 |
| Navajo Stirling vs Rodolfo Bellato | DraftKings | Navajo Stirling | -238 at 2025-09-17T10:11:28.182829-06:00 | -298 at 2025-09-27T19:12:51.216739-06:00 | 11 |
| Navajo Stirling vs Rodolfo Bellato | DraftKings | Rodolfo Bellato | +195 at 2025-09-17T10:11:28.182953-06:00 | +240 at 2025-09-27T19:12:51.216765-06:00 | 11 |
| Cam Rowston vs Andre Petroski | DraftKings | Andre Petroski | -142 at 2025-09-17T10:11:28.160920-06:00 | -185 at 2025-09-27T19:12:51.209204-06:00 | 13 |
| Cam Rowston vs Andre Petroski | DraftKings | Cam Rowston | +120 at 2025-09-17T10:11:28.160786-06:00 | +154 at 2025-09-27T19:12:51.209146-06:00 | 13 |
| Jamie Mullarkey vs Rolando Bedoya | DraftKings | Jamie Mullarkey | -118 at 2025-09-17T10:11:28.148837-06:00 | -135 at 2025-09-27T18:12:49.913295-06:00 | 22 |
| Jamie Mullarkey vs Rolando Bedoya | DraftKings | Rolando Bedoya | -102 at 2025-09-17T10:11:28.148960-06:00 | +114 at 2025-09-27T18:12:49.913336-06:00 | 22 |
| Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa | DraftKings | Colby Thicknesse | +140 at 2025-09-18T11:22:13.849989-06:00 | +136 at 2025-09-27T11:42:27.695865-06:00 | 11 |
| Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa | DraftKings | Josias Musasa | -166 at 2025-09-18T11:22:13.850116-06:00 | -162 at 2025-09-27T11:42:27.695903-06:00 | 11 |
| Michelle Montague vs Luana Carolina | DraftKings | Luana Carolina | +170 at 2025-09-17T10:11:28.138413-06:00 | +170 at 2025-09-27T11:42:27.684031-06:00 | 16 |
| Michelle Montague vs Luana Carolina | DraftKings | Michelle Montague | -205 at 2025-09-17T10:11:28.138315-06:00 | -205 at 2025-09-27T11:42:27.683984-06:00 | 16 |
| Brando Peričić vs Elisha Ellison | DraftKings | Brando Pericic | -162 at 2025-09-17T10:11:28.128617-06:00 | -230 at 2025-09-27T17:12:18.627717-06:00 | 16 |
| Brando Peričić vs Elisha Ellison | DraftKings | Elisha Ellison | +136 at 2025-09-17T10:11:28.131395-06:00 | +190 at 2025-09-27T17:12:18.627770-06:00 | 16 |
| Loma Lookboonmee vs Alexia Thainara | DraftKings | Alexia Thainara | -230 at 2025-09-17T10:11:28.175976-06:00 | -230 at 2025-09-27T15:42:30.124787-06:00 | 14 |
| Loma Lookboonmee vs Alexia Thainara | DraftKings | Loma Lookboonmee | +190 at 2025-09-17T10:11:28.175888-06:00 | +190 at 2025-09-27T15:42:30.124754-06:00 | 14 |