UFC 324 Gaethje vs Pimblett prediction records
Event date: . 11 recorded matchups.
These records preserve the published predictions after the event. Confidence is a model estimate, not a guarantee or the archive win rate. Results use the recorded grading for each market. Missing picks, odds and grades stay unavailable; they are not fabricated. Odds shown here are historical American-odds snapshots from the public archive. Historical line movement and additional sportsbook views are available in the interactive archive under its access rules.
Prediction and data methodology · Report a sourced correction
| Matchup | Market | Published pick and confidence | Graded result | Recorded American odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett | Moneyline | Paddy Pimblett (60.00% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +200 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -245 |
| Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 4.5 (79.36% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett | Over/under significant strikes | Justin Gaethje: Over 55.5 (62.22% confidence); Paddy Pimblett: Under 61.5 (51.83% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett | Go the distance | No (66.87% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett | Method of victory | Submission (52.38% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Sean O'Malley vs Song Yadong | Moneyline | Sean O'Malley (84.03% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -225 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +185 |
| Sean O'Malley vs Song Yadong | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (85.24% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Sean O'Malley vs Song Yadong | Over/under significant strikes | Sean O'Malley: Under 79.5 (70.52% confidence); Song Yadong: Over 61.5 (66.71% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Sean O'Malley vs Song Yadong | Go the distance | No (88.53% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Sean O'Malley vs Song Yadong | Method of victory | KO/TKO (54.50% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Derrick Lewis | Moneyline | Waldo Cortes Acosta (69.65% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -310 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +250 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Derrick Lewis | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (77.98% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Derrick Lewis | Over/under significant strikes | Waldo Cortes Acosta: Over 27.5 (58.44% confidence); Derrick Lewis: Under 19.5 (73.41% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Derrick Lewis | Go the distance | No (87.87% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Derrick Lewis | Method of victory | KO/TKO (57.33% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Natalia Silva vs Rose Namajunas | Moneyline | Natalia Silva (76.10% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -305 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +245 |
| Natalia Silva vs Rose Namajunas | Over/under rounds | Over 1.5, 2.5 (72.87% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Natalia Silva vs Rose Namajunas | Over/under significant strikes | Natalia Silva: Over 62.5 (75.02% confidence); Rose Namajunas: Over 48.5 (69.38% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Natalia Silva vs Rose Namajunas | Go the distance | Yes (81.02% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Natalia Silva vs Rose Namajunas | Method of victory | Decision (58.68% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Arnold Allen vs Jean Silva | Moneyline | Arnold Allen (86.15% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +180 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -218 |
| Arnold Allen vs Jean Silva | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (84.72% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Arnold Allen vs Jean Silva | Over/under significant strikes | Arnold Allen: Over 43.5 (65.09% confidence); Jean Silva: Over 54.5 (54.96% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Arnold Allen vs Jean Silva | Go the distance | No (91.50% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Arnold Allen vs Jean Silva | Method of victory | KO/TKO (56.88% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo | Moneyline | Umar Nurmagomedov (75.88% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -1600 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +900 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (70.39% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo | Over/under significant strikes | Umar Nurmagomedov: Over 54.5 (81.14% confidence); Deiveson Figueiredo: Over 37.5 (77.52% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo | Go the distance | Yes (85.05% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo | Method of victory | Decision (59.90% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Ateba Gautier vs Andrey Pulyaev | Moneyline | Ateba Gautier (78.78% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -1000 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +650 |
| Ateba Gautier vs Andrey Pulyaev | Over/under rounds | Under 1.5, 2.5 (76.12% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Ateba Gautier vs Andrey Pulyaev | Over/under significant strikes | Ateba Gautier: Over 21.5 (56.24% confidence); Andrey Pulyaev: Under 16.5 (64.93% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Ateba Gautier vs Andrey Pulyaev | Go the distance | No (86.15% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Ateba Gautier vs Andrey Pulyaev | Method of victory | KO/TKO (67.73% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Nikita Krylov vs Modestas Bukauskas | Moneyline | Nikita Krylov (52.93% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +105 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -125 |
| Nikita Krylov vs Modestas Bukauskas | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (86.99% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Nikita Krylov vs Modestas Bukauskas | Over/under significant strikes | Nikita Krylov: Over 26.5 (50.78% confidence); Modestas Bukauskas: Over 22.5 (53.29% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Nikita Krylov vs Modestas Bukauskas | Go the distance | No (72.49% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Nikita Krylov vs Modestas Bukauskas | Method of victory | KO/TKO (50.75% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson | Moneyline | Charles Johnson (65.80% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +154 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -185 |
| Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (74.67% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson | Over/under significant strikes | Alex Perez: Under 48.5 (60.71% confidence); Charles Johnson: Over 58.5 (56.34% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson | Go the distance | No (79.63% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson | Method of victory | KO/TKO (62.90% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Josh Hokit vs Denzel Freeman | Moneyline | Josh Hokit (86.40% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -258 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +210 |
| Josh Hokit vs Denzel Freeman | Over/under rounds | Under 2.5 (57.97% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Josh Hokit vs Denzel Freeman | Over/under significant strikes | Josh Hokit: Under 22.5 (69.08% confidence); Denzel Freeman: Under 28.5 (64.70% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Josh Hokit vs Denzel Freeman | Go the distance | No (71.13% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Josh Hokit vs Denzel Freeman | Method of victory | KO/TKO (59.43% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Adam Fugitt vs Ty Miller | Moneyline | Ty Miller (66.29% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +340 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -440 |
| Adam Fugitt vs Ty Miller | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (65.38% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Adam Fugitt vs Ty Miller | Over/under significant strikes | Adam Fugitt: Over 45.5 (61.02% confidence); Ty Miller: Over 45.5 (58.23% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Adam Fugitt vs Ty Miller | Go the distance | Yes (79.01% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Adam Fugitt vs Ty Miller | Method of victory | Decision (60.88% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
Recorded public odds movement
First and last captured prices for each labelled outcome in the public snapshot. These are captured observations, not a claim to have the sportsbook's opening or closing price. The interactive archive provides the available intermediate observations.
| Matchup | Sportsbook | Outcome | First capture | Last capture | Captures |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett | DraftKings | Justin Gaethje | -105 at 2025-11-27T16:12:09.790671-07:00 | +200 at 2026-01-24T20:11:27.756829-07:00 | 20 |
| Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett | DraftKings | Paddy Pimblett | -115 at 2025-11-27T16:12:09.790731-07:00 | -245 at 2026-01-24T20:11:27.756870-07:00 | 20 |
| Sean O'Malley vs Song Yadong | DraftKings | Sean O'Malley | -185 at 2025-11-28T10:42:31.401878-07:00 | -225 at 2026-01-24T19:41:32.770108-07:00 | 23 |
| Sean O'Malley vs Song Yadong | DraftKings | Yadong Song | +154 at 2025-11-28T10:42:31.401914-07:00 | +185 at 2026-01-24T19:41:32.770138-07:00 | 23 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Derrick Lewis | DraftKings | Derrick Lewis | +230 at 2025-11-28T10:42:31.398399-07:00 | +250 at 2026-01-24T20:41:14.213609-07:00 | 26 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Derrick Lewis | DraftKings | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | -285 at 2025-11-28T10:42:31.398325-07:00 | -310 at 2026-01-24T20:41:14.213564-07:00 | 26 |
| Natalia Silva vs Rose Namajunas | DraftKings | Natalia Cristina da Silva | -425 at 2025-12-23T16:40:58.598691-07:00 | -305 at 2026-01-24T19:11:28.243711-07:00 | 16 |
| Natalia Silva vs Rose Namajunas | DraftKings | Rose Namajunas | +330 at 2025-12-23T16:40:58.598727-07:00 | +245 at 2026-01-24T19:11:28.243742-07:00 | 16 |
| Arnold Allen vs Jean Silva | DraftKings | Arnold Allen | +164 at 2025-11-28T10:42:31.400255-07:00 | +180 at 2026-01-24T19:11:28.238699-07:00 | 28 |
| Arnold Allen vs Jean Silva | DraftKings | Jean Silva | -198 at 2025-11-28T10:42:31.400295-07:00 | -218 at 2026-01-24T19:11:28.238734-07:00 | 28 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo | DraftKings | Deiveson Figueiredo | +850 at 2025-12-23T16:40:58.596111-07:00 | +900 at 2026-01-24T09:41:07.447160-07:00 | 17 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo | DraftKings | Umar Nurmagomedov | -1450 at 2025-12-23T16:40:58.596073-07:00 | -1600 at 2026-01-24T09:41:07.447113-07:00 | 17 |
| Ateba Gautier vs Andrey Pulyaev | DraftKings | Andrey Pulyaev | +600 at 2025-12-23T16:40:58.594771-07:00 | +650 at 2026-01-24T17:41:34.628222-07:00 | 14 |
| Ateba Gautier vs Andrey Pulyaev | DraftKings | Ateba Abega Gautier | -900 at 2025-12-23T16:40:58.594733-07:00 | -1000 at 2026-01-24T17:41:34.628166-07:00 | 14 |
| Nikita Krylov vs Modestas Bukauskas | DraftKings | Modestas Bukauskas | -198 at 2025-12-23T16:40:58.600462-07:00 | -125 at 2026-01-24T17:11:27.220362-07:00 | 32 |
| Nikita Krylov vs Modestas Bukauskas | DraftKings | Nikita Krylov | +164 at 2025-12-23T16:40:58.600325-07:00 | +105 at 2026-01-24T17:11:27.220271-07:00 | 32 |
| Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson | DraftKings | Alex Perez | +142 at 2025-12-23T16:40:58.591154-07:00 | +154 at 2026-01-24T17:11:27.209752-07:00 | 25 |
| Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson | DraftKings | Charles Johnson | -170 at 2025-12-23T16:40:58.591215-07:00 | -185 at 2026-01-24T17:11:27.209878-07:00 | 25 |
| Josh Hokit vs Denzel Freeman | DraftKings | Denzel Freeman | +180 at 2025-12-23T16:40:58.589091-07:00 | +210 at 2026-01-24T16:11:51.859723-07:00 | 18 |
| Josh Hokit vs Denzel Freeman | DraftKings | Josh Hokit | -218 at 2025-12-23T16:40:58.589031-07:00 | -258 at 2026-01-24T16:11:51.859686-07:00 | 18 |
| Adam Fugitt vs Ty Miller | DraftKings | Adam Fugitt | +220 at 2025-12-27T18:40:46.960843-07:00 | +340 at 2026-01-24T16:11:51.855019-07:00 | 18 |
| Adam Fugitt vs Ty Miller | DraftKings | Ty Miller | -298 at 2025-12-27T18:40:46.960732-07:00 | -440 at 2026-01-24T16:11:51.855059-07:00 | 18 |