UFC Fight Night Moreno vs Kavanagh prediction records
Event date: . 13 recorded matchups.
These records preserve the published predictions after the event. Confidence is a model estimate, not a guarantee or the archive win rate. Results use the recorded grading for each market. Missing picks, odds and grades stay unavailable; they are not fabricated. Odds shown here are historical American-odds snapshots from the public archive. Historical line movement and additional sportsbook views are available in the interactive archive under its access rules.
Prediction and data methodology · Report a sourced correction
| Matchup | Market | Published pick and confidence | Graded result | Recorded American odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh | Moneyline | Brandon Moreno (58.39% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -205 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +170 |
| Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh | Over/under rounds | Over 1.5, 2.5, Under 4.5 (53.73% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -20000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1200 DraftKings / rounds / 4.5 / over: -160 DraftKings / rounds / 4.5 / under: +124 |
| Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh | Over/under significant strikes | Brandon Moreno: Over 51.5 (70.69% confidence); Lone’er Kavanagh: Under 47.5 (56.97% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 91.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 91.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 82.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 82.5 / under: -115 |
| Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh | Go the distance | No (78.77% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: -120 DraftKings / distance / no: -110 |
| Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh | Method of victory | KO/TKO (57.66% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +400 DraftKings / method / Decision: +320 DraftKings / method / Submission: +300 |
| Marlon Vera vs David Martinez | Moneyline | David Martinez (65.40% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +275 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -345 |
| Marlon Vera vs David Martinez | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (80.48% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -20000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1200 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -410 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +290 |
| Marlon Vera vs David Martinez | Over/under significant strikes | Marlon Vera: Under 36.5 (72.69% confidence); David Martinez: Over 49.5 (61.45% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 76.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 76.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 52.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 52.5 / under: -115 |
| Marlon Vera vs David Martinez | Go the distance | Yes (52.61% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -350 DraftKings / distance / no: +250 |
| Marlon Vera vs David Martinez | Method of victory | Decision (50.41% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +600 DraftKings / method / Decision: -250 DraftKings / method / Submission: -250 |
| Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green | Moneyline | Daniel Zellhuber (51.88% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -375 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +295 |
| Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (76.41% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1600 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +650 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -160 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +124 |
| Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green | Over/under significant strikes | Daniel Zellhuber: Under 26.5 (78.20% confidence); King Green: Over 24.5 (69.26% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 71.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 71.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 67.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 67.5 / under: -115 |
| Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green | Go the distance | Yes (70.03% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: -105 DraftKings / distance / no: -125 |
| Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green | Method of victory | Decision (58.13% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +850 DraftKings / method / Decision: +380 DraftKings / method / Submission: +380 |
| Edgar Chairez vs Felipe Bunes | Moneyline | Edgar Chairez (51.38% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -278 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +225 |
| Edgar Chairez vs Felipe Bunes | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (88.68% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1100 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +550 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -195 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +150 |
| Edgar Chairez vs Felipe Bunes | Over/under significant strikes | Edgar Chairez: Under 45.5 (65.14% confidence); Felipe Bunes: Under 39.5 (59.05% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 41.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 41.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 29.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 29.5 / under: -115 |
| Edgar Chairez vs Felipe Bunes | Go the distance | Yes (51.38% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +150 DraftKings / distance / no: -200 |
| Edgar Chairez vs Felipe Bunes | Method of victory | Decision (54.27% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +500 DraftKings / method / Decision: +450 DraftKings / method / Submission: +275 |
| Imanol Rodriguez vs Kevin Borjas | Moneyline | Imanol Rodriguez (52.48% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -485 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +370 |
| Imanol Rodriguez vs Kevin Borjas | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (53.49% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -800 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +450 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -195 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +150 |
| Imanol Rodriguez vs Kevin Borjas | Over/under significant strikes | Imanol Rodriguez: Under 38.5 (57.89% confidence); Kevin Borjas: Under 34.5 (69.21% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 37.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 37.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 52.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 52.5 / under: -115 |
| Imanol Rodriguez vs Kevin Borjas | Go the distance | No (78.19% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +150 DraftKings / distance / no: -200 |
| Imanol Rodriguez vs Kevin Borjas | Method of victory | KO/TKO (52.53% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +650 DraftKings / method / Decision: +550 DraftKings / method / Submission: +700 |
| Santiago Luna vs Angel Pacheco | Moneyline | Santiago Luna (71.86% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -800 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +550 |
| Santiago Luna vs Angel Pacheco | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (54.86% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -475 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +300 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -110 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -120 |
| Santiago Luna vs Angel Pacheco | Over/under significant strikes | Santiago Luna: Under 42.5 (66.09% confidence); Angel Pacheco: Under 39.5 (62.19% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 36.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 36.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 29.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 29.5 / under: -115 |
| Santiago Luna vs Angel Pacheco | Go the distance | No (58.80% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +250 DraftKings / distance / no: -350 |
| Santiago Luna vs Angel Pacheco | Method of victory | KO/TKO (70.77% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +900 DraftKings / method / Decision: +850 DraftKings / method / Submission: +750 |
| Ryan Gandra vs Jose Daniel Medina | Moneyline | Ryan Gandra (70.68% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -850 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +575 |
| Ryan Gandra vs Jose Daniel Medina | Over/under rounds | Under 1.5, 2.5 (58.05% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -475 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +300 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: +105 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -135 |
| Ryan Gandra vs Jose Daniel Medina | Over/under significant strikes | Ryan Gandra: Under 19.5 (61.41% confidence); Jose Daniel Medina: Under 14.5 (79.93% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Ryan Gandra vs Jose Daniel Medina | Go the distance | No (60.43% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +250 DraftKings / distance / no: -350 |
| Ryan Gandra vs Jose Daniel Medina | Method of victory | KO/TKO (64.37% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: -250 DraftKings / method / Decision: +215 DraftKings / method / Submission: -105 |
| Ailin Perez vs Macy Chiasson | Moneyline | Ailin Perez (68.73% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -185 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +154 |
| Ailin Perez vs Macy Chiasson | Over/under rounds | Over 1.5, 2.5 (78.72% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -8000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1100 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -220 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +170 |
| Ailin Perez vs Macy Chiasson | Over/under significant strikes | Ailin Perez: Under 29.5 (71.48% confidence); Macy Chiasson: Under 22.5 (80.29% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Ailin Perez vs Macy Chiasson | Go the distance | Yes (74.05% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -250 DraftKings / distance / no: +185 |
| Ailin Perez vs Macy Chiasson | Method of victory | Decision (69.70% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +400 DraftKings / method / Decision: -130 DraftKings / method / Submission: -160 |
| Cristian Quiñonez vs Kris Moutinho | Moneyline | Cristian Quinonez (73.83% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -550 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +410 |
| Cristian Quiñonez vs Kris Moutinho | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (59.85% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -700 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +400 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -140 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +110 |
| Cristian Quiñonez vs Kris Moutinho | Over/under significant strikes | Cristian Quiñonez: Under 34.5 (64.01% confidence); Kris Moutinho: Under 26.5 (52.83% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Cristian Quiñonez vs Kris Moutinho | Go the distance | No (56.59% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +225 DraftKings / distance / no: -310 |
| Cristian Quiñonez vs Kris Moutinho | Method of victory | KO/TKO (61.93% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +800 DraftKings / method / Decision: +850 DraftKings / method / Submission: +850 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Javier Reyes | Moneyline | Javier Reyes (67.70% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +200 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -245 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Javier Reyes | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (84.71% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1400 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +600 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -140 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +110 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Javier Reyes | Over/under significant strikes | Douglas Silva de Andrade: Under 32.5 (81.77% confidence); Javier Reyes: Under 26.5 (63.49% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Javier Reyes | Go the distance | No (53.65% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +100 DraftKings / distance / no: -130 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Javier Reyes | Method of victory | KO/TKO (59.80% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +140 DraftKings / method / Decision: +135 DraftKings / method / Submission: -130 |
| Regina Tarin vs Ernesta Kareckaitė | Moneyline | Regina Tarin (83.52% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +110 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -130 |
| Regina Tarin vs Ernesta Kareckaitė | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (95.29% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -20000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1200 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -270 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +200 |
| Regina Tarin vs Ernesta Kareckaitė | Over/under significant strikes | Regina Tarin: Over 29.5 (66.14% confidence); Ernesta Kareckaitė: Over 31.5 (58.02% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Regina Tarin vs Ernesta Kareckaitė | Go the distance | Yes (75.52% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -275 DraftKings / distance / no: +200 |
| Regina Tarin vs Ernesta Kareckaitė | Method of victory | Decision (67.77% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +500 DraftKings / method / Decision: -120 DraftKings / method / Submission: -130 |
| Erik Silva vs Francis Marshall | Moneyline | Francis Marshall (64.43% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +575 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -850 |
| Erik Silva vs Francis Marshall | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (92.96% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -800 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +450 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -166 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +130 |
| Erik Silva vs Francis Marshall | Over/under significant strikes | Erik Silva: Under 21.5 (52.28% confidence); Francis Marshall: Under 28.5 (65.91% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Erik Silva vs Francis Marshall | Go the distance | No (71.45% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +180 DraftKings / distance / no: -245 |
| Erik Silva vs Francis Marshall | Method of victory | Submission (44.37% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: -185 DraftKings / method / Decision: +125 DraftKings / method / Submission: -280 |
| Damian Pinas vs Wes Schultz | Moneyline | Damian Pinas (63.02% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -238 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +195 |
| Damian Pinas vs Wes Schultz | Over/under rounds | Under 1.5, 2.5 (77.96% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -425 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +275 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: +114 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -145 |
| Damian Pinas vs Wes Schultz | Over/under significant strikes | Damian Pinas: Under 26.5 (58.78% confidence); Wes Schultz: Under 22.5 (77.07% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Damian Pinas vs Wes Schultz | Go the distance | No (73.49% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +500 DraftKings / distance / no: -900 |
| Damian Pinas vs Wes Schultz | Method of victory | KO/TKO (76.80% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: -200 DraftKings / method / Submission: +400 DraftKings / method / Decision: +450 |
Recorded public odds movement
First and last captured prices for each labelled outcome in the public snapshot. These are captured observations, not a claim to have the sportsbook's opening or closing price. The interactive archive provides the available intermediate observations.
| Matchup | Sportsbook | Outcome | First capture | Last capture | Captures |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh | DraftKings | Brandon Moreno | -250 at 2026-02-11T11:11:07.674011-07:00 | -205 at 2026-02-28T12:41:54.175649-07:00 | 15 |
| Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh | DraftKings | Lone'er Kavanagh | +205 at 2026-02-11T11:11:07.674152-07:00 | +170 at 2026-02-28T12:41:54.175692-07:00 | 15 |
| Marlon Vera vs David Martinez | DraftKings | David Martinez | -258 at 2026-02-14T13:41:21.016871-07:00 | -345 at 2026-02-28T19:42:14.264534-07:00 | 17 |
| Marlon Vera vs David Martinez | DraftKings | Marlon Vera | +210 at 2026-02-14T13:41:21.016736-07:00 | +275 at 2026-02-28T19:42:14.264475-07:00 | 17 |
| Edgar Chairez vs Felipe Bunes | DraftKings | Edgar Chairez | -245 at 2026-02-14T13:41:21.019101-07:00 | -278 at 2026-02-28T18:12:37.445161-07:00 | 14 |
| Edgar Chairez vs Felipe Bunes | DraftKings | Felipe Bunes | +200 at 2026-02-14T13:41:21.019164-07:00 | +225 at 2026-02-28T18:12:37.445199-07:00 | 14 |
| Imanol Rodriguez vs Kevin Borjas | DraftKings | Imanol Rodriguez | -380 at 2026-02-14T13:41:21.020802-07:00 | -485 at 2026-02-28T17:42:33.723106-07:00 | 19 |
| Imanol Rodriguez vs Kevin Borjas | DraftKings | Kevin Borjas | +300 at 2026-02-14T13:41:21.020836-07:00 | +370 at 2026-02-28T17:42:33.723144-07:00 | 19 |
| Santiago Luna vs Angel Pacheco | DraftKings | Angel Pacheco | +350 at 2026-02-14T13:41:21.025607-07:00 | +550 at 2026-02-28T13:12:28.827869-07:00 | 18 |
| Santiago Luna vs Angel Pacheco | DraftKings | Santiago Luna | -455 at 2026-02-14T13:41:21.025563-07:00 | -800 at 2026-02-28T13:12:28.827826-07:00 | 18 |
| Ryan Gandra vs Jose Daniel Medina | DraftKings | José Daniel Medina | +410 at 2026-02-14T13:41:21.031366-07:00 | +575 at 2026-02-28T17:42:33.697224-07:00 | 16 |
| Ryan Gandra vs Jose Daniel Medina | DraftKings | Ryan Gandra | -550 at 2026-02-14T13:41:21.031412-07:00 | -850 at 2026-02-28T17:42:33.697194-07:00 | 16 |
| Ailin Perez vs Macy Chiasson | DraftKings | Ailin Perez | -162 at 2026-02-14T13:41:21.036249-07:00 | -185 at 2026-02-28T08:41:31.955853-07:00 | 15 |
| Ailin Perez vs Macy Chiasson | DraftKings | Macy Chiasson | +136 at 2026-02-14T13:41:21.036174-07:00 | +154 at 2026-02-28T08:41:31.955882-07:00 | 15 |
| Cristian Quiñonez vs Kris Moutinho | DraftKings | Christian Quiñónez | -535 at 2026-02-14T13:41:21.038379-07:00 | -550 at 2026-02-28T16:11:38.053750-07:00 | 8 |
| Cristian Quiñonez vs Kris Moutinho | DraftKings | Kris Moutinho | +400 at 2026-02-14T13:41:21.038423-07:00 | +410 at 2026-02-28T16:11:38.053784-07:00 | 8 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Javier Reyes | DraftKings | Douglas Silva de Andrade | +185 at 2026-02-14T13:41:21.046488-07:00 | +200 at 2026-02-28T15:42:38.724150-07:00 | 9 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Javier Reyes | DraftKings | Javier Reyes | -225 at 2026-02-14T13:41:21.046537-07:00 | -245 at 2026-02-28T15:42:38.724179-07:00 | 9 |
| Regina Tarin vs Ernesta Kareckaitė | DraftKings | Ernesta Kareckaite | -180 at 2026-02-26T10:43:48.515596-07:00 | -130 at 2026-02-28T15:42:38.710278-07:00 | 12 |
| Regina Tarin vs Ernesta Kareckaitė | DraftKings | Regina Tarin | +150 at 2026-02-26T10:43:48.515549-07:00 | +110 at 2026-02-28T15:42:38.710246-07:00 | 12 |
| Erik Silva vs Francis Marshall | DraftKings | Erik Silva | +390 at 2026-02-14T13:41:21.050676-07:00 | +575 at 2026-02-28T13:12:28.575262-07:00 | 5 |
| Erik Silva vs Francis Marshall | DraftKings | Francis Marshall | -520 at 2026-02-14T13:41:21.050727-07:00 | -850 at 2026-02-28T13:12:28.575313-07:00 | 5 |
| Damian Pinas vs Wes Schultz | DraftKings | Damian Pinas | -290 at 2026-02-14T13:41:21.033766-07:00 | -238 at 2026-02-28T15:11:38.668357-07:00 | 16 |
| Damian Pinas vs Wes Schultz | DraftKings | Wesley Schultz | +235 at 2026-02-14T13:41:21.033713-07:00 | +195 at 2026-02-28T15:11:38.668390-07:00 | 16 |