UFC Fight Night Adesanya vs Pyfer prediction records
Event date: . 13 recorded matchups.
These records preserve the published predictions after the event. Confidence is a model estimate, not a guarantee or the archive win rate. Results use the recorded grading for each market. Missing picks, odds and grades stay unavailable; they are not fabricated. Odds shown here are historical American-odds snapshots from the public archive. Historical line movement and additional sportsbook views are available in the interactive archive under its access rules.
Prediction and data methodology · Report a sourced correction
| Matchup | Market | Published pick and confidence | Graded result | Recorded American odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer | Moneyline | Joe Pyfer (51.50% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -142 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +120 |
| Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (96.95% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -3500 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +900 DraftKings / rounds / 3.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / rounds / 3.5 / under: -115 |
| Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer | Over/under significant strikes | Israel Adesanya: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Joe Pyfer: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 71.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 71.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 55.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 55.5 / under: -115 |
| Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer | Go the distance | No (58.00% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +130 DraftKings / distance / no: -170 |
| Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer | Method of victory | Decision (51.40% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +165 DraftKings / method / Decision: +600 DraftKings / method / Submission: +300 |
| Alexa Grasso vs Maycee Barber | Moneyline | Maycee Barber (70.10% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +164 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -198 |
| Alexa Grasso vs Maycee Barber | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (96.85% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -20000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1200 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -410 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +290 |
| Alexa Grasso vs Maycee Barber | Over/under significant strikes | Alexa Grasso: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Maycee Barber: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 53.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 53.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 47.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 47.5 / under: -115 |
| Alexa Grasso vs Maycee Barber | Go the distance | Yes (81.70% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: -400 DraftKings / distance / no: +275 |
| Alexa Grasso vs Maycee Barber | Method of victory | Decision (79.80% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +450 DraftKings / method / Decision: -140 DraftKings / method / Submission: -150 |
| Michael Chiesa vs Niko Price | Moneyline | Michael Chiesa (50.00% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -950 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +625 |
| Michael Chiesa vs Niko Price | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (96.95% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -700 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +400 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -154 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +120 |
| Michael Chiesa vs Niko Price | Over/under significant strikes | Michael Chiesa: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Niko Price: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 13.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 13.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 21.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 21.5 / under: -115 |
| Michael Chiesa vs Niko Price | Go the distance | No (68.70% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +175 DraftKings / distance / no: -235 |
| Michael Chiesa vs Niko Price | Method of victory | Submission (49.00% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +1000 DraftKings / method / Decision: +1000 DraftKings / method / Submission: +1100 |
| Julian Erosa vs Lerryan Douglas | Moneyline | Julian Erosa (60.10% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +220 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -270 |
| Julian Erosa vs Lerryan Douglas | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (96.45% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -425 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +275 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: +124 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -160 |
| Julian Erosa vs Lerryan Douglas | Over/under significant strikes | Julian Erosa: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Lerryan Douglas: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 29.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 29.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 23.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 23.5 / under: -115 |
| Julian Erosa vs Lerryan Douglas | Go the distance | Yes (54.70% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +350 DraftKings / distance / no: -550 |
| Julian Erosa vs Lerryan Douglas | Method of victory | KO/TKO (50.90% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: -200 DraftKings / method / Decision: +320 DraftKings / method / Submission: +380 |
| Terrance McKinney vs Kyle Nelson | Moneyline | Kyle Nelson (55.40% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -185 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +154 |
| Terrance McKinney vs Kyle Nelson | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (96.90% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -310 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +215 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: +190 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -250 |
| Terrance McKinney vs Kyle Nelson | Over/under significant strikes | Terrance McKinney: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Kyle Nelson: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 15.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 15.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 21.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 21.5 / under: -115 |
| Terrance McKinney vs Kyle Nelson | Go the distance | No (84.60% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +700 DraftKings / distance / no: -1600 |
| Terrance McKinney vs Kyle Nelson | Method of victory | KO/TKO (48.70% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +185 DraftKings / method / Submission: +475 DraftKings / method / Decision: +700 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes vs Tofiq Musayev | Moneyline | Ignacio Bahamondes (73.70% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -325 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +260 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes vs Tofiq Musayev | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (90.05% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1400 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +600 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -110 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -120 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes vs Tofiq Musayev | Over/under significant strikes | Ignacio Bahamondes: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Tofiq Musayev: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Ignacio Bahamondes vs Tofiq Musayev | Go the distance | No (54.40% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +125 DraftKings / distance / no: -165 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes vs Tofiq Musayev | Method of victory | KO/TKO (49.40% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +500 DraftKings / method / Decision: +450 DraftKings / method / Submission: +550 |
| Chase Hooper vs Lance Gibson Jr. | Moneyline | Chase Hooper (74.80% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -425 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +330 |
| Chase Hooper vs Lance Gibson Jr. | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (96.65% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1100 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +550 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -166 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +130 |
| Chase Hooper vs Lance Gibson Jr. | Over/under significant strikes | Chase Hooper: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Lance Gibson Jr.: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Chase Hooper vs Lance Gibson Jr. | Go the distance | No (63.10% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +130 DraftKings / distance / no: -170 |
| Chase Hooper vs Lance Gibson Jr. | Method of victory | Decision (44.70% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +475 DraftKings / method / Decision: +475 DraftKings / method / Submission: +500 |
| Marcin Tybura vs Tyrell Fortune | Moneyline | Marcin Tybura (74.80% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +105 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -125 |
| Marcin Tybura vs Tyrell Fortune | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (96.65% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -800 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +450 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -160 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +124 |
| Marcin Tybura vs Tyrell Fortune | Over/under significant strikes | Marcin Tybura: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Tyrell Fortune: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Marcin Tybura vs Tyrell Fortune | Go the distance | No (63.10% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +225 DraftKings / distance / no: -295 |
| Marcin Tybura vs Tyrell Fortune | Method of victory | Decision (44.70% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +110 DraftKings / method / Decision: +320 DraftKings / method / Submission: +350 |
| Casey O'Neill vs Gabriella Fernandes | Moneyline | Gabriella Fernandes (74.80% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -125 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +105 |
| Casey O'Neill vs Gabriella Fernandes | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (96.65% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -8000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1100 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -270 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +200 |
| Casey O'Neill vs Gabriella Fernandes | Over/under significant strikes | Casey O'Neill: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Gabriella Fernandes: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Casey O'Neill vs Gabriella Fernandes | Go the distance | No (63.10% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -250 DraftKings / distance / no: +185 |
| Casey O'Neill vs Gabriella Fernandes | Method of victory | Decision (44.70% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +425 DraftKings / method / Decision: +150 DraftKings / method / Submission: +140 |
| Navajo Stirling vs Bruno Lopes | Moneyline | Navajo Stirling (58.90% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -750 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +525 |
| Navajo Stirling vs Bruno Lopes | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (96.85% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -800 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +450 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -160 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +124 |
| Navajo Stirling vs Bruno Lopes | Over/under significant strikes | Navajo Stirling: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Bruno Lopes: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Navajo Stirling vs Bruno Lopes | Go the distance | Yes (73.60% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +200 DraftKings / distance / no: -275 |
| Navajo Stirling vs Bruno Lopes | Method of victory | Decision (61.10% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +900 DraftKings / method / Decision: +750 DraftKings / method / Submission: +650 |
| Ricky Simon vs Adrian Yanez | Moneyline | Adrian Yanez (50.60% confidence) | Draw | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -185 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +154 |
| Ricky Simon vs Adrian Yanez | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (96.80% confidence) | Draw | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -3000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +850 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -195 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +150 |
| Ricky Simon vs Adrian Yanez | Over/under significant strikes | Ricky Simon: Draw; Adrian Yanez: Draw | Draw | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Ricky Simon vs Adrian Yanez | Go the distance | No (67.30% confidence) | Draw | DraftKings / distance / yes: -160 DraftKings / distance / no: +120 |
| Ricky Simon vs Adrian Yanez | Method of victory | KO/TKO (45.50% confidence) | Draw | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +380 DraftKings / method / Decision: +275 DraftKings / method / Submission: +275 |
| Alexia Thainara vs Bruna Brasil | Moneyline | Alexia Thainara (54.50% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -800 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +550 |
| Alexia Thainara vs Bruna Brasil | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (92.65% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -5000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1000 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -245 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +185 |
| Alexia Thainara vs Bruna Brasil | Over/under significant strikes | Alexia Thainara: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Bruna Brasil: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Alexia Thainara vs Bruna Brasil | Go the distance | Yes (72.80% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -200 DraftKings / distance / no: +150 |
| Alexia Thainara vs Bruna Brasil | Method of victory | Decision (55.60% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +1400 DraftKings / method / Decision: +650 DraftKings / method / Submission: +650 |
| Yousri Belgaroui vs Mansur Abdul-Malik | Moneyline | Yousri Belgaroui (75.00% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +124 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -148 |
| Yousri Belgaroui vs Mansur Abdul-Malik | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (95.75% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1400 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +600 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -230 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +175 |
| Yousri Belgaroui vs Mansur Abdul-Malik | Over/under significant strikes | Yousri Belgaroui: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Mansur Abdul-Malik: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 33.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 33.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 47.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 47.5 / under: -115 |
| Yousri Belgaroui vs Mansur Abdul-Malik | Go the distance | No (77.00% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +140 DraftKings / distance / no: -185 |
| Yousri Belgaroui vs Mansur Abdul-Malik | Method of victory | KO/TKO (46.00% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +275 DraftKings / method / Decision: +240 DraftKings / method / Submission: +300 |
Recorded public odds movement
First and last captured prices for each labelled outcome in the public snapshot. These are captured observations, not a claim to have the sportsbook's opening or closing price. The interactive archive provides the available intermediate observations.
| Matchup | Sportsbook | Outcome | First capture | Last capture | Captures |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso vs Maycee Barber | DraftKings | Alexa Grasso | +124 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.724493-06:00 | +164 at 2026-03-28T19:44:54.174114-06:00 | 19 |
| Alexa Grasso vs Maycee Barber | DraftKings | Maycee Barber | -148 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.727813-06:00 | -198 at 2026-03-28T19:44:54.174142-06:00 | 19 |
| Julian Erosa vs Lerryan Douglas | DraftKings | Julian Erosa | +240 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.669600-06:00 | +220 at 2026-03-28T19:11:16.033036-06:00 | 15 |
| Julian Erosa vs Lerryan Douglas | DraftKings | Lerryan Douglas | -298 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.669743-06:00 | -270 at 2026-03-28T19:11:16.033071-06:00 | 15 |
| Terrance McKinney vs Kyle Nelson | DraftKings | Kyle Nelson | +120 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.616439-06:00 | +154 at 2026-03-28T17:44:00.622354-06:00 | 17 |
| Terrance McKinney vs Kyle Nelson | DraftKings | Terrance McKinney | -142 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.616200-06:00 | -185 at 2026-03-28T17:44:00.622313-06:00 | 17 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes vs Tofiq Musayev | DraftKings | Ignacio Bahamondes | -270 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.589355-06:00 | -325 at 2026-03-28T16:11:24.930796-06:00 | 11 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes vs Tofiq Musayev | DraftKings | Tofiq Musayev | +220 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.589423-06:00 | +260 at 2026-03-28T16:11:24.930833-06:00 | 11 |
| Chase Hooper vs Lance Gibson Jr. | DraftKings | Chase Hooper | -360 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.565001-06:00 | -425 at 2026-03-28T17:12:11.526228-06:00 | 18 |
| Chase Hooper vs Lance Gibson Jr. | DraftKings | Lance Gibson Jr. | +285 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.565069-06:00 | +330 at 2026-03-28T17:12:11.526266-06:00 | 18 |
| Marcin Tybura vs Tyrell Fortune | DraftKings | Marcin Tybura | -102 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.529301-06:00 | +105 at 2026-03-28T15:41:22.501018-06:00 | 13 |
| Marcin Tybura vs Tyrell Fortune | DraftKings | Tyrell Fortune | -118 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.529521-06:00 | -125 at 2026-03-28T15:41:22.501055-06:00 | 13 |
| Casey O'Neill vs Gabriella Fernandes | DraftKings | Casey O'Neill | +114 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.493688-06:00 | -125 at 2026-03-28T14:11:18.254136-06:00 | 26 |
| Casey O'Neill vs Gabriella Fernandes | DraftKings | Gabriella Fernandes | -135 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.493942-06:00 | +105 at 2026-03-28T14:11:18.254168-06:00 | 26 |
| Navajo Stirling vs Bruno Lopes | DraftKings | Bruno Lopes | +340 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.457049-06:00 | +525 at 2026-03-28T15:41:22.482149-06:00 | 17 |
| Navajo Stirling vs Bruno Lopes | DraftKings | Navajo Stirling | -440 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.456794-06:00 | -750 at 2026-03-28T15:41:22.482104-06:00 | 17 |
| Ricky Simon vs Adrian Yanez | DraftKings | Adrian Yanez | +124 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.431995-06:00 | +154 at 2026-03-28T12:11:21.033443-06:00 | 14 |
| Ricky Simon vs Adrian Yanez | DraftKings | Ricky Simon | -148 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.431752-06:00 | -185 at 2026-03-28T12:11:21.033347-06:00 | 12 |
| Alexia Thainara vs Bruna Brasil | DraftKings | Alexia Thainara | -520 at 2026-03-21T11:11:12.910724-06:00 | -800 at 2026-03-28T10:41:22.088416-06:00 | 9 |
| Alexia Thainara vs Bruna Brasil | DraftKings | Bruna Emanuele Brasil | +390 at 2026-03-21T11:11:12.910778-06:00 | +550 at 2026-03-28T10:41:22.088501-06:00 | 9 |
| Yousri Belgaroui vs Mansur Abdul-Malik | DraftKings | Mansur Abdul-Malik | -135 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.645680-06:00 | -148 at 2026-03-28T16:11:24.939383-06:00 | 34 |
| Yousri Belgaroui vs Mansur Abdul-Malik | DraftKings | Yousri Belgaroui | +114 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.645796-06:00 | +124 at 2026-03-28T16:11:24.939417-06:00 | 34 |