UFC Fight Night Moicano vs Duncan prediction records
Event date: . 12 recorded matchups.
These records preserve the published predictions after the event. Confidence is a model estimate, not a guarantee or the archive win rate. Results use the recorded grading for each market. Missing picks, odds and grades stay unavailable; they are not fabricated. Odds shown here are historical American-odds snapshots from the public archive. Historical line movement and additional sportsbook views are available in the interactive archive under its access rules.
Prediction and data methodology · Report a sourced correction
| Matchup | Market | Published pick and confidence | Graded result | Recorded American odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan | Moneyline | Renato Moicano (71.95% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +110 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -130 |
| Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (96.80% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1100 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +550 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -115 |
| Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan | Over/under significant strikes | Renato Moicano: Under 55.5 (76.84% confidence); Chris Duncan: Under 61.5 (74.39% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 46.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 46.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 37.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 37.5 / under: -115 |
| Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan | Go the distance | No (53.48% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +275 DraftKings / distance / no: -400 |
| Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan | Method of victory | Submission (39.90% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +105 DraftKings / method / Decision: +400 DraftKings / method / Submission: +300 |
| Virna Jandiroba vs Tabatha Ricci | Moneyline | Virna Jandiroba (62.80% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -135 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +114 |
| Virna Jandiroba vs Tabatha Ricci | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (96.90% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -20000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1200 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -425 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +300 |
| Virna Jandiroba vs Tabatha Ricci | Over/under significant strikes | Virna Jandiroba: Over 55.5 (61.31% confidence); Tabatha Ricci: Under 55.5 (56.89% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 49.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 49.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 39.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 39.5 / under: -115 |
| Virna Jandiroba vs Tabatha Ricci | Go the distance | Yes (71.30% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -400 DraftKings / distance / no: +275 |
| Virna Jandiroba vs Tabatha Ricci | Method of victory | Decision (69.77% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +1100 DraftKings / method / Decision: +120 DraftKings / method / Submission: +125 |
| Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev vs Brendson Ribeiro | Moneyline | Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (64.08% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -1350 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +800 |
| Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev vs Brendson Ribeiro | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (98.83% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -175 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +130 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: +300 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -425 |
| Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev vs Brendson Ribeiro | Over/under significant strikes | Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev: Under 79.5 (82.11% confidence); Brendson Ribeiro: Under 57.5 (79.46% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 18.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 18.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 8.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 8.5 / under: -115 |
| Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev vs Brendson Ribeiro | Go the distance | Yes (68.13% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +900 DraftKings / distance / no: -3000 |
| Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev vs Brendson Ribeiro | Method of victory | Decision (69.65% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +1100 DraftKings / method / Submission: +1200 DraftKings / method / Decision: +1600 |
| Ethyn Ewing vs Rafael Estevam | Moneyline | Rafael Estevam (70.92% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -125 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +105 |
| Ethyn Ewing vs Rafael Estevam | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (93.75% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -5000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1000 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -250 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +190 |
| Ethyn Ewing vs Rafael Estevam | Over/under significant strikes | Ethyn Ewing: Over 27.5 (68.42% confidence); Rafael Estevam: Under 19.5 (64.57% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 43.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 43.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 27.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 27.5 / under: -115 |
| Ethyn Ewing vs Rafael Estevam | Go the distance | Yes (72.20% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: -200 DraftKings / distance / no: +150 |
| Ethyn Ewing vs Rafael Estevam | Method of victory | Decision (45.00% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +330 DraftKings / method / Decision: +125 DraftKings / method / Submission: +130 |
| Tommy McMillen vs Manolo Zecchini | Moneyline | Tommy McMillen (81.58% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -800 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +550 |
| Tommy McMillen vs Manolo Zecchini | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (92.90% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -450 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +295 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: +110 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -140 |
| Tommy McMillen vs Manolo Zecchini | Over/under significant strikes | Tommy McMillen: Under 62.5 (78.33% confidence); Manolo Zecchini: Under 48.5 (75.14% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Tommy McMillen vs Manolo Zecchini | Go the distance | No (84.14% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +330 DraftKings / distance / no: -500 |
| Tommy McMillen vs Manolo Zecchini | Method of victory | KO/TKO (57.73% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +1000 DraftKings / method / Decision: +900 DraftKings / method / Submission: +1000 |
| Guilherme Pat vs Thomas Petersen | Moneyline | Thomas Petersen (63.08% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -105 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -115 |
| Guilherme Pat vs Thomas Petersen | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (97.44% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1400 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +600 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -105 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -125 |
| Guilherme Pat vs Thomas Petersen | Over/under significant strikes | Guilherme Pat: Under 54.5 (67.89% confidence); Thomas Petersen: Under 37.5 (62.44% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Guilherme Pat vs Thomas Petersen | Go the distance | Yes (58.20% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +110 DraftKings / distance / no: -145 |
| Guilherme Pat vs Thomas Petersen | Method of victory | Decision (43.67% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +175 DraftKings / method / Decision: +285 DraftKings / method / Submission: +350 |
| Jose Delano vs Robert Ruchala | Moneyline | Robert Ruchala (72.49% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -218 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +180 |
| Jose Delano vs Robert Ruchala | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (96.55% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -3000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +850 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -188 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +145 |
| Jose Delano vs Robert Ruchala | Over/under significant strikes | Jose Delano: Over 43.5 (65.72% confidence); Robert Ruchala: Under 54.5 (71.06% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jose Delano vs Robert Ruchala | Go the distance | Yes (67.58% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -150 DraftKings / distance / no: +110 |
| Jose Delano vs Robert Ruchala | Method of victory | Decision (58.17% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +600 DraftKings / method / Decision: +330 DraftKings / method / Submission: +300 |
| Alessandro Costa vs Stewart Nicoll | Moneyline | Alessandro Costa (68.43% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -395 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +310 |
| Alessandro Costa vs Stewart Nicoll | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (96.85% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1400 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +600 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -125 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -105 |
| Alessandro Costa vs Stewart Nicoll | Over/under significant strikes | Alessandro Costa: Over 21.5 (66.58% confidence); Stewart Nicoll: Under 16.5 (60.93% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Alessandro Costa vs Stewart Nicoll | Go the distance | No (66.55% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +100 DraftKings / distance / no: -130 |
| Alessandro Costa vs Stewart Nicoll | Method of victory | KO/TKO (43.93% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +800 DraftKings / method / Decision: +475 DraftKings / method / Submission: +400 |
| Lando Vannata vs Darrius Flowers | Moneyline | Darrius Flowers (56.50% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -238 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +195 |
| Lando Vannata vs Darrius Flowers | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (99.64% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1400 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +600 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -270 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +200 |
| Lando Vannata vs Darrius Flowers | Over/under significant strikes | Lando Vannata: Under 26.5 (64.37% confidence); Darrius Flowers: Over 22.5 (63.81% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Lando Vannata vs Darrius Flowers | Go the distance | No (61.23% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +120 DraftKings / distance / no: -160 |
| Lando Vannata vs Darrius Flowers | Method of victory | KO/TKO (42.83% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +275 DraftKings / method / Decision: +425 DraftKings / method / Submission: +500 |
| Alice Pereira vs Hailey Cowan | Moneyline | Alice Pereira (69.16% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -135 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +114 |
| Alice Pereira vs Hailey Cowan | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (95.84% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -20000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1200 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -298 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +220 |
| Alice Pereira vs Hailey Cowan | Over/under significant strikes | Alice Pereira: Under 26.5 (58.76% confidence); Hailey Cowan: Under 22.5 (60.21% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Alice Pereira vs Hailey Cowan | Go the distance | No (59.78% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -275 DraftKings / distance / no: +200 |
| Alice Pereira vs Hailey Cowan | Method of victory | KO/TKO (46.31% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +400 DraftKings / method / Decision: +115 DraftKings / method / Submission: +115 |
| Azamat Bekoev vs Tresean Gore | Moneyline | Azamat Bekoev (75.53% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -650 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +470 |
| Azamat Bekoev vs Tresean Gore | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (95.76% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1100 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +550 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -145 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +114 |
| Azamat Bekoev vs Tresean Gore | Over/under significant strikes | Azamat Bekoev: Over 26.5 (59.94% confidence); Tresean Gore: Under 22.5 (62.88% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Azamat Bekoev vs Tresean Gore | Go the distance | No (91.78% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +150 DraftKings / distance / no: -200 |
| Azamat Bekoev vs Tresean Gore | Method of victory | KO/TKO (60.43% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: -105 DraftKings / method / Decision: +700 DraftKings / method / Submission: +550 |
| Dione Barbosa vs Melissa Gatto | Moneyline | Melissa Gatto (78.60% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -108 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -112 |
| Dione Barbosa vs Melissa Gatto | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (97.41% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -20000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1200 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -270 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +200 |
| Dione Barbosa vs Melissa Gatto | Over/under significant strikes | Dione Barbosa: Over 26.5 (61.43% confidence); Melissa Gatto: Over 22.5 (57.69% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Dione Barbosa vs Melissa Gatto | Go the distance | Yes (71.07% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -275 DraftKings / distance / no: +200 |
| Dione Barbosa vs Melissa Gatto | Method of victory | Decision (53.87% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +400 DraftKings / method / Decision: +150 DraftKings / method / Submission: +110 |
Recorded public odds movement
First and last captured prices for each labelled outcome in the public snapshot. These are captured observations, not a claim to have the sportsbook's opening or closing price. The interactive archive provides the available intermediate observations.
| Matchup | Sportsbook | Outcome | First capture | Last capture | Captures |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan | DraftKings | Chris Duncan | -205 at 2026-03-28T14:41:35.729510-06:00 | -130 at 2026-04-04T15:42:37.938862-06:00 | 22 |
| Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan | DraftKings | Renato Moicano | +170 at 2026-03-28T14:41:35.729440-06:00 | +110 at 2026-04-04T15:42:37.938814-06:00 | 22 |
| Virna Jandiroba vs Tabatha Ricci | DraftKings | Tabatha Ricci | -142 at 2026-03-28T14:11:18.357477-06:00 | +114 at 2026-04-04T06:41:29.057765-06:00 | 30 |
| Virna Jandiroba vs Tabatha Ricci | DraftKings | Virna Jandiroba | +120 at 2026-03-28T14:11:18.357429-06:00 | -135 at 2026-04-04T06:41:29.057720-06:00 | 30 |
| Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev vs Brendson Ribeiro | DraftKings | Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev | -1350 at 2026-03-28T14:11:18.353591-06:00 | -1350 at 2026-04-04T07:41:43.063193-06:00 | 13 |
| Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev vs Brendson Ribeiro | DraftKings | Brendson Ribeiro | +800 at 2026-03-28T14:11:18.353641-06:00 | +800 at 2026-04-04T07:41:43.063222-06:00 | 13 |
| Ethyn Ewing vs Rafael Estevam | DraftKings | Ethyn Ewing | -112 at 2026-03-28T14:11:18.351492-06:00 | -125 at 2026-04-04T18:41:39.912392-06:00 | 32 |
| Ethyn Ewing vs Rafael Estevam | DraftKings | Rafael Estevam | -108 at 2026-03-28T14:11:18.351546-06:00 | +105 at 2026-04-04T18:41:39.912434-06:00 | 32 |
| Tommy McMillen vs Manolo Zecchini | DraftKings | Manolo Zecchini | +650 at 2026-03-28T15:11:21.251376-06:00 | +550 at 2026-04-04T05:42:09.228576-06:00 | 14 |
| Tommy McMillen vs Manolo Zecchini | DraftKings | Tommy McMillen | -1000 at 2026-03-28T15:11:21.251315-06:00 | -800 at 2026-04-04T05:42:09.228527-06:00 | 14 |
| Guilherme Pat vs Thomas Petersen | DraftKings | Guilherme Pat | -115 at 2026-03-28T14:41:35.703103-06:00 | -105 at 2026-04-04T17:42:11.155574-06:00 | 18 |
| Guilherme Pat vs Thomas Petersen | DraftKings | Thomas Petersen | -105 at 2026-03-28T14:41:35.703170-06:00 | -115 at 2026-04-04T17:42:11.155601-06:00 | 18 |
| Jose Delano vs Robert Ruchala | DraftKings | Jose Delano | -395 at 2026-03-28T14:41:35.697812-06:00 | -218 at 2026-04-04T17:42:11.163220-06:00 | 17 |
| Jose Delano vs Robert Ruchala | DraftKings | Robert Ruchala | +310 at 2026-03-28T14:41:35.698184-06:00 | +180 at 2026-04-04T17:42:11.163245-06:00 | 17 |
| Alessandro Costa vs Stewart Nicoll | DraftKings | Alessandro Costa | -395 at 2026-03-28T14:41:35.686383-06:00 | -395 at 2026-04-04T17:12:30.265357-06:00 | 17 |
| Alessandro Costa vs Stewart Nicoll | DraftKings | Stewart Nicoll | +310 at 2026-03-28T14:41:35.686464-06:00 | +310 at 2026-04-04T17:12:30.265445-06:00 | 17 |
| Lando Vannata vs Darrius Flowers | DraftKings | Darrius Flowers | +195 at 2026-03-31T15:41:03.116696-06:00 | +195 at 2026-04-04T14:11:57.675754-06:00 | 7 |
| Lando Vannata vs Darrius Flowers | DraftKings | Lando Vannata | -238 at 2026-03-31T15:41:03.116585-06:00 | -238 at 2026-04-04T14:11:57.675677-06:00 | 7 |
| Alice Pereira vs Hailey Cowan | DraftKings | Alice Pereira | -112 at 2026-03-28T14:41:35.680687-06:00 | -135 at 2026-04-04T08:41:58.244286-06:00 | 17 |
| Alice Pereira vs Hailey Cowan | DraftKings | Hailey Cowan | -108 at 2026-03-28T14:41:35.680790-06:00 | +114 at 2026-04-04T08:41:58.244333-06:00 | 17 |
| Azamat Bekoev vs Tresean Gore | DraftKings | Azamat Bekoev | -550 at 2026-03-28T14:41:35.674981-06:00 | -650 at 2026-04-04T16:12:18.351823-06:00 | 10 |
| Azamat Bekoev vs Tresean Gore | DraftKings | Tresean Gore | +410 at 2026-03-28T14:41:35.675091-06:00 | +470 at 2026-04-04T16:12:18.351880-06:00 | 10 |
| Dione Barbosa vs Melissa Gatto | DraftKings | Dione Barbosa | -142 at 2026-03-28T14:41:35.668081-06:00 | -108 at 2026-04-04T15:42:37.788174-06:00 | 17 |
| Dione Barbosa vs Melissa Gatto | DraftKings | Melissa Gatto | +120 at 2026-03-28T14:41:35.668158-06:00 | -112 at 2026-04-04T15:42:37.788265-06:00 | 17 |