UFC Fight Night Sterling vs Zalal prediction records
Event date: . 12 recorded matchups.
These records preserve the published predictions after the event. Confidence is a model estimate, not a guarantee or the archive win rate. Results use the recorded grading for each market. Missing picks, odds and grades stay unavailable; they are not fabricated. Odds shown here are historical American-odds snapshots from the public archive. Historical line movement and additional sportsbook views are available in the interactive archive under its access rules.
Prediction and data methodology · Report a sourced correction
| Matchup | Market | Published pick and confidence | Graded result | Recorded American odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aljamain Sterling vs Youssef Zalal | Moneyline | Youssef Zalal (60.03% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +110 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -130 |
| Aljamain Sterling vs Youssef Zalal | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 4.5 (81.31% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -20000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1200 DraftKings / rounds / 4.5 / over: -180 DraftKings / rounds / 4.5 / under: +140 |
| Aljamain Sterling vs Youssef Zalal | Over/under significant strikes | Aljamain Sterling: Over 55.5 (58.74% confidence); Youssef Zalal: Under 61.5 (70.22% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 58.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 58.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 53.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 53.5 / under: -115 |
| Aljamain Sterling vs Youssef Zalal | Go the distance | No (66.58% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: -160 DraftKings / distance / no: +120 |
| Aljamain Sterling vs Youssef Zalal | Method of victory | Submission (64.60% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +300 DraftKings / method / Decision: +140 DraftKings / method / Submission: +120 |
| Norma Dumont vs Joselyne Edwards | Moneyline | Norma Dumont (71.24% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -230 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +190 |
| Norma Dumont vs Joselyne Edwards | Over/under rounds | Over 1.5, 2.5 (77.47% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -20000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1200 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -395 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +280 |
| Norma Dumont vs Joselyne Edwards | Over/under significant strikes | Norma Dumont: Over 55.5 (65.04% confidence); Joselyne Edwards: Under 55.5 (71.47% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 36.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 36.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 48.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 48.5 / under: -115 |
| Norma Dumont vs Joselyne Edwards | Go the distance | Yes (84.51% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -400 DraftKings / distance / no: +275 |
| Norma Dumont vs Joselyne Edwards | Method of victory | Decision (78.43% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +600 DraftKings / method / Decision: +225 DraftKings / method / Submission: +185 |
| Rafa Garcia vs Alexander Hernandez | Moneyline | Rafa Garcia (56.08% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +100 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -120 |
| Rafa Garcia vs Alexander Hernandez | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (72.69% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -3500 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +900 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -238 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +180 |
| Rafa Garcia vs Alexander Hernandez | Over/under significant strikes | Rafa Garcia: Under 79.5 (74.05% confidence); Alexander Hernandez: Under 57.5 (59.23% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 55.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 55.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 59.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 59.5 / under: -115 |
| Rafa Garcia vs Alexander Hernandez | Go the distance | Yes (73.13% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -200 DraftKings / distance / no: +150 |
| Rafa Garcia vs Alexander Hernandez | Method of victory | Decision (58.90% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +330 DraftKings / method / Decision: +140 DraftKings / method / Submission: +150 |
| Davey Grant vs Adrián Luna Martinetti | Moneyline | Davey Grant (52.86% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -120 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +102 |
| Davey Grant vs Adrián Luna Martinetti | Over/under rounds | Under 1.5, 2.5 (67.69% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -2500 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +800 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -188 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +145 |
| Davey Grant vs Adrián Luna Martinetti | Over/under significant strikes | Davey Grant: Over 27.5 (72.18% confidence); Adrián Luna Martinetti: Under 19.5 (66.04% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 64.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 64.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 67.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 67.5 / under: -115 |
| Davey Grant vs Adrián Luna Martinetti | Go the distance | No (76.82% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: -145 DraftKings / distance / no: +110 |
| Davey Grant vs Adrián Luna Martinetti | Method of victory | KO/TKO (63.87% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +330 DraftKings / method / Decision: +175 DraftKings / method / Submission: +120 |
| Montel Jackson vs Raoni Barcelos | Moneyline | Montel Jackson (51.35% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -218 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +180 |
| Montel Jackson vs Raoni Barcelos | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (78.34% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -3000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +850 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -180 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +140 |
| Montel Jackson vs Raoni Barcelos | Over/under significant strikes | Montel Jackson: Under 62.5 (77.36% confidence); Raoni Barcelos: Over 48.5 (60.85% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 29.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 29.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 40.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 40.5 / under: -115 |
| Montel Jackson vs Raoni Barcelos | Go the distance | Yes (54.93% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -160 DraftKings / distance / no: +120 |
| Montel Jackson vs Raoni Barcelos | Method of victory | Decision (51.35% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +200 DraftKings / method / Decision: +120 DraftKings / method / Submission: +120 |
| Marcus Buchecha vs Ryan Spann | Moneyline | Ryan Spann (57.47% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -170 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +142 |
| Marcus Buchecha vs Ryan Spann | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (78.37% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -425 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +275 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: +120 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -154 |
| Marcus Buchecha vs Ryan Spann | Over/under significant strikes | Marcus Buchecha: Under 43.5 (75.68% confidence); Ryan Spann: Under 54.5 (73.54% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 13.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 13.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 14.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 14.5 / under: -115 |
| Marcus Buchecha vs Ryan Spann | Go the distance | No (88.72% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +400 DraftKings / distance / no: -650 |
| Marcus Buchecha vs Ryan Spann | Method of victory | KO/TKO (69.02% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +165 DraftKings / method / Decision: +600 DraftKings / method / Submission: +450 |
| Rodolfo Vieira vs Eric McConico | Moneyline | Rodolfo Vieira (73.03% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -375 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +295 |
| Rodolfo Vieira vs Eric McConico | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (63.86% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1600 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +650 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -115 |
| Rodolfo Vieira vs Eric McConico | Over/under significant strikes | Rodolfo Vieira: Under 54.5 (66.38% confidence); Eric McConico: Under 37.5 (64.51% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 37.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 37.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 34.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 34.5 / under: -115 |
| Rodolfo Vieira vs Eric McConico | Go the distance | No (52.18% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +100 DraftKings / distance / no: -130 |
| Rodolfo Vieira vs Eric McConico | Method of victory | Submission (56.30% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +700 DraftKings / method / Decision: +370 DraftKings / method / Submission: +380 |
| Jackson McVey vs Sedriques Dumas | Moneyline | Sedriques Dumas (51.93% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -175 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +145 |
| Jackson McVey vs Sedriques Dumas | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (53.66% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -500 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +320 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: +124 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -160 |
| Jackson McVey vs Sedriques Dumas | Over/under significant strikes | Jackson McVey: Over 21.5 (57.59% confidence); Sedriques Dumas: Over 16.5 (57.87% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 21.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 21.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 12.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 12.5 / under: -115 |
| Jackson McVey vs Sedriques Dumas | Go the distance | No (59.05% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +350 DraftKings / distance / no: -550 |
| Jackson McVey vs Sedriques Dumas | Method of victory | KO/TKO (38.13% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: -125 DraftKings / method / Decision: +425 DraftKings / method / Submission: +140 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva vs Michelle Montague | Moneyline | Michelle Montague (59.62% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +340 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -440 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva vs Michelle Montague | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (75.36% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -3000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +850 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -180 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +140 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva vs Michelle Montague | Over/under significant strikes | Mayra Bueno Silva: Over 25.5 (64.03% confidence); Michelle Montague: Over 26.5 (66.17% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 36.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 36.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 30.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 30.5 / under: -115 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva vs Michelle Montague | Go the distance | No (54.80% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: -160 DraftKings / distance / no: +120 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva vs Michelle Montague | Method of victory | Submission (51.42% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +165 DraftKings / method / Decision: -145 DraftKings / method / Submission: -330 |
| Jafel Filho vs Cody Durden | Moneyline | Jafel Filho (64.00% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -600 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +440 |
| Jafel Filho vs Cody Durden | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (84.70% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -575 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +350 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -125 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -105 |
| Jafel Filho vs Cody Durden | Over/under significant strikes | Jafel Filho: Under 26.5 (62.58% confidence); Cody Durden: Over 22.5 (54.36% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 17.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 17.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 20.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 20.5 / under: -115 |
| Jafel Filho vs Cody Durden | Go the distance | No (75.17% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +240 DraftKings / distance / no: -340 |
| Jafel Filho vs Cody Durden | Method of victory | Submission (51.36% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +750 DraftKings / method / Decision: +750 DraftKings / method / Submission: +600 |
| Max Griffin vs Victor Valenzuela | Moneyline | Victor Valenzuela (56.35% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +110 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -130 |
| Max Griffin vs Victor Valenzuela | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (53.47% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -2500 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +800 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -180 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +140 |
| Max Griffin vs Victor Valenzuela | Over/under significant strikes | Max Griffin: Over 26.5 (55.44% confidence); Victor Valenzuela: Over 22.5 (60.72% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 46.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 46.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 50.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 50.5 / under: -115 |
| Max Griffin vs Victor Valenzuela | Go the distance | Yes (79.03% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -145 DraftKings / distance / no: +110 |
| Max Griffin vs Victor Valenzuela | Method of victory | Decision (71.63% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +400 DraftKings / method / Decision: +185 DraftKings / method / Submission: +195 |
| Talita Alencar vs Julia Polastri | Moneyline | Talita Alencar (60.04% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +200 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -245 |
| Talita Alencar vs Julia Polastri | Over/under rounds | Over 1.5, 2.5 (62.22% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -20000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1200 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -330 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +240 |
| Talita Alencar vs Julia Polastri | Over/under significant strikes | Talita Alencar: Over 42.5 (57.81% confidence); Julia Polastri: Over 58.5 (62.33% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 62.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 62.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 41.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 41.5 / under: -115 |
| Talita Alencar vs Julia Polastri | Go the distance | Yes (80.02% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -275 DraftKings / distance / no: +200 |
| Talita Alencar vs Julia Polastri | Method of victory | Decision (76.29% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +800 DraftKings / method / Decision: +255 DraftKings / method / Submission: +225 |
Recorded public odds movement
First and last captured prices for each labelled outcome in the public snapshot. These are captured observations, not a claim to have the sportsbook's opening or closing price. The interactive archive provides the available intermediate observations.
| Matchup | Sportsbook | Outcome | First capture | Last capture | Captures |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aljamain Sterling vs Youssef Zalal | DraftKings | Aljamain Sterling | +114 at 2026-04-14T10:10:49.799279-06:00 | +110 at 2026-04-25T20:11:56.684076-06:00 | 23 |
| Aljamain Sterling vs Youssef Zalal | DraftKings | Youssef Zalaal | -135 at 2026-04-14T10:10:49.799341-06:00 | -130 at 2026-04-25T20:11:56.684111-06:00 | 23 |
| Norma Dumont vs Joselyne Edwards | DraftKings | Joselyne Edwards | +136 at 2026-04-14T10:10:49.803452-06:00 | +190 at 2026-04-25T19:11:58.169904-06:00 | 27 |
| Norma Dumont vs Joselyne Edwards | DraftKings | Norma Dumont | -162 at 2026-04-14T10:10:49.803387-06:00 | -230 at 2026-04-25T19:11:58.169868-06:00 | 27 |
| Rafa Garcia vs Alexander Hernandez | DraftKings | Alexander Hernandez | -148 at 2026-04-14T10:10:49.808810-06:00 | -120 at 2026-04-25T19:42:07.956417-06:00 | 28 |
| Rafa Garcia vs Alexander Hernandez | DraftKings | Rafa Garcia | +124 at 2026-04-14T10:10:49.808739-06:00 | +100 at 2026-04-25T19:42:07.956385-06:00 | 28 |
| Davey Grant vs Adrián Luna Martinetti | DraftKings | Davey Grant | -122 at 2026-04-20T21:11:06.507739-06:00 | -120 at 2026-04-25T11:41:37.733982-06:00 | 10 |
| Davey Grant vs Adrián Luna Martinetti | DraftKings | Adrian Luna Martinetti | +102 at 2026-04-20T21:11:06.507822-06:00 | +102 at 2026-04-25T11:41:37.733982-06:00 | 2 |
| Montel Jackson vs Raoni Barcelos | DraftKings | Montel Jackson | -166 at 2026-04-14T10:10:49.812700-06:00 | -218 at 2026-04-25T18:12:24.786012-06:00 | 19 |
| Montel Jackson vs Raoni Barcelos | DraftKings | Raoni Barcelos | +140 at 2026-04-14T10:10:49.812770-06:00 | +180 at 2026-04-25T18:12:24.786043-06:00 | 19 |
| Marcus Buchecha vs Ryan Spann | DraftKings | Marcus Buchecha | -125 at 2026-04-14T10:10:49.819369-06:00 | -170 at 2026-04-25T18:12:24.772486-06:00 | 21 |
| Marcus Buchecha vs Ryan Spann | DraftKings | Ryan Spann | +105 at 2026-04-14T10:10:49.819438-06:00 | +142 at 2026-04-25T18:12:24.772528-06:00 | 21 |
| Rodolfo Vieira vs Eric McConico | DraftKings | Eric McConico | +205 at 2026-04-21T08:12:53.492091-06:00 | +295 at 2026-04-25T15:11:46.328140-06:00 | 10 |
| Rodolfo Vieira vs Eric McConico | DraftKings | Rodolfo Vieira | -250 at 2026-04-21T08:12:53.491974-06:00 | -375 at 2026-04-25T15:11:46.328112-06:00 | 10 |
| Jackson McVey vs Sedriques Dumas | DraftKings | Jackson McVey | -205 at 2026-04-14T10:10:49.769133-06:00 | -175 at 2026-04-25T08:42:16.811897-06:00 | 9 |
| Jackson McVey vs Sedriques Dumas | DraftKings | Sedriques Dumas | +170 at 2026-04-14T10:10:49.769213-06:00 | +145 at 2026-04-25T08:42:16.811942-06:00 | 9 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva vs Michelle Montague | DraftKings | Mayra Bueno Silva | +285 at 2026-04-14T10:10:49.789252-06:00 | +340 at 2026-04-25T07:11:57.739221-06:00 | 9 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva vs Michelle Montague | DraftKings | Michelle Montague | -360 at 2026-04-14T10:10:49.789322-06:00 | -440 at 2026-04-25T07:11:57.739259-06:00 | 9 |
| Jafel Filho vs Cody Durden | DraftKings | Cody Durden | +440 at 2026-04-21T12:42:09.676020-06:00 | +440 at 2026-04-25T08:42:16.735912-06:00 | 9 |
| Jafel Filho vs Cody Durden | DraftKings | Jafel Cavalcante Filho | -600 at 2026-04-21T12:42:09.675939-06:00 | -600 at 2026-04-25T08:42:16.735874-06:00 | 9 |
| Max Griffin vs Victor Valenzuela | DraftKings | Max Griffin | +124 at 2026-04-14T10:10:49.796297-06:00 | +110 at 2026-04-25T06:42:18.971193-06:00 | 11 |
| Max Griffin vs Victor Valenzuela | DraftKings | Victor Valenzuela | -148 at 2026-04-14T10:10:49.796374-06:00 | -130 at 2026-04-25T06:42:18.971238-06:00 | 11 |
| Talita Alencar vs Julia Polastri | DraftKings | Julia Polastri | -218 at 2026-04-14T10:10:49.782837-06:00 | -245 at 2026-04-25T15:11:46.250994-06:00 | 20 |
| Talita Alencar vs Julia Polastri | DraftKings | Talita Alencar | +180 at 2026-04-14T10:10:49.782767-06:00 | +200 at 2026-04-25T15:11:46.250968-06:00 | 20 |