UFC Fight Night Della Maddalena vs Prates prediction records
Event date: . 13 recorded matchups.
These records preserve the published predictions after the event. Confidence is a model estimate, not a guarantee or the archive win rate. Results use the recorded grading for each market. Missing picks, odds and grades stay unavailable; they are not fabricated. Odds shown here are historical American-odds snapshots from the public archive. Historical line movement and additional sportsbook views are available in the interactive archive under its access rules.
Prediction and data methodology · Report a sourced correction
| Matchup | Market | Published pick and confidence | Graded result | Recorded American odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates | Moneyline | Carlos Prates (57.41% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -112 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -108 |
| Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates | Over/under rounds | Over 2.5, Under 4.5 (62.31% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -3500 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +900 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -135 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +105 |
| Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates | Over/under significant strikes | Jack Della Maddalena: Over 55.5 (74.62% confidence); Carlos Prates: Over 61.5 (71.43% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 57.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 57.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 68.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 68.5 / under: -115 |
| Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates | Go the distance | No (64.38% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +150 DraftKings / distance / no: -200 |
| Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates | Method of victory | KO/TKO (63.23% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +150 DraftKings / method / Decision: +380 DraftKings / method / Submission: +400 |
| Beneil Dariush vs Quillan Salkilld | Moneyline | Quillan Salkilld (51.25% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +320 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -410 |
| Beneil Dariush vs Quillan Salkilld | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (61.79% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -425 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +275 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -130 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +100 |
| Beneil Dariush vs Quillan Salkilld | Over/under significant strikes | Beneil Dariush: Under 55.5 (68.06% confidence); Quillan Salkilld: Under 55.5 (66.07% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 18.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 18.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 25.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 25.5 / under: -115 |
| Beneil Dariush vs Quillan Salkilld | Go the distance | No (69.26% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +330 DraftKings / distance / no: -500 |
| Beneil Dariush vs Quillan Salkilld | Method of victory | KO/TKO (62.38% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: -275 DraftKings / method / Decision: +300 DraftKings / method / Submission: +250 |
| Tim Elliott vs Steve Erceg | Moneyline | Steve Erceg (59.33% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +160 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -192 |
| Tim Elliott vs Steve Erceg | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (96.37% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -5000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1000 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -210 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +160 |
| Tim Elliott vs Steve Erceg | Over/under significant strikes | Tim Elliott: Under 79.5 (74.65% confidence); Steve Erceg: Under 57.5 (68.76% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 45.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 45.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 41.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 41.5 / under: -115 |
| Tim Elliott vs Steve Erceg | Go the distance | Yes (76.08% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -200 DraftKings / distance / no: +150 |
| Tim Elliott vs Steve Erceg | Method of victory | Decision (71.27% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +350 DraftKings / method / Decision: -110 DraftKings / method / Submission: -160 |
| Marwan Rahiki vs Ollie Schmid | Moneyline | Marwan Rahiki (70.48% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -700 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +500 |
| Marwan Rahiki vs Ollie Schmid | Over/under rounds | Under 1.5, 2.5 (86.36% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -360 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +250 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: +124 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -160 |
| Marwan Rahiki vs Ollie Schmid | Over/under significant strikes | Marwan Rahiki: Under 23.5 (66.23% confidence); Ollie Schmid: Under 19.5 (54.27% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Marwan Rahiki vs Ollie Schmid | Go the distance | No (70.57% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +450 DraftKings / distance / no: -750 |
| Marwan Rahiki vs Ollie Schmid | Method of victory | KO/TKO (71.67% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +750 DraftKings / method / Submission: +950 DraftKings / method / Decision: +1100 |
| Shamil Gaziev vs Brando Peričić | Moneyline | Brando Peričić (64.84% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -110 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -110 |
| Shamil Gaziev vs Brando Peričić | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (82.70% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -350 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +240 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: +154 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -200 |
| Shamil Gaziev vs Brando Peričić | Over/under significant strikes | Shamil Gaziev: Over 27.5 (77.03% confidence); Brando Peričić: Over 19.5 (85.00% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 14.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 14.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 20.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 20.5 / under: -115 |
| Shamil Gaziev vs Brando Peričić | Go the distance | No (69.70% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +500 DraftKings / distance / no: -900 |
| Shamil Gaziev vs Brando Peričić | Method of victory | KO/TKO (65.96% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: -125 DraftKings / method / Submission: +800 DraftKings / method / Decision: +750 |
| Tai Tuivasa vs Louie Sutherland | Moneyline | Tai Tuivasa (70.85% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -245 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +200 |
| Tai Tuivasa vs Louie Sutherland | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (83.39% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -700 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +400 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -120 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -110 |
| Tai Tuivasa vs Louie Sutherland | Over/under significant strikes | Tai Tuivasa: Under 62.5 (65.86% confidence); Louie Sutherland: Under 48.5 (52.51% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 21.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 21.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 28.5 / over: -125 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 28.5 / under: -105 |
| Tai Tuivasa vs Louie Sutherland | Go the distance | No (56.98% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +225 DraftKings / distance / no: -310 |
| Tai Tuivasa vs Louie Sutherland | Method of victory | KO/TKO (63.63% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +350 DraftKings / method / Decision: +350 DraftKings / method / Submission: +380 |
| Cam Rowston vs Robert Bryczek | Moneyline | Cam Rowston (50.63% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -230 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +190 |
| Cam Rowston vs Robert Bryczek | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (76.28% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -800 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +450 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -110 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -120 |
| Cam Rowston vs Robert Bryczek | Over/under significant strikes | Cam Rowston: Over 43.5 (64.78% confidence); Robert Bryczek: Under 54.5 (62.59% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Cam Rowston vs Robert Bryczek | Go the distance | No (53.40% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +180 DraftKings / distance / no: -245 |
| Cam Rowston vs Robert Bryczek | Method of victory | KO/TKO (69.67% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +250 DraftKings / method / Decision: +400 DraftKings / method / Submission: +450 |
| Junior Tafa vs Kevin Christian | Moneyline | Junior Tafa (52.18% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -225 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +185 |
| Junior Tafa vs Kevin Christian | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (72.99% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -425 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +275 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: +120 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -154 |
| Junior Tafa vs Kevin Christian | Over/under significant strikes | Junior Tafa: Under 54.5 (72.71% confidence); Kevin Christian: Under 37.5 (59.62% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Junior Tafa vs Kevin Christian | Go the distance | No (63.89% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +400 DraftKings / distance / no: -650 |
| Junior Tafa vs Kevin Christian | Method of victory | KO/TKO (46.80% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +225 DraftKings / method / Decision: +650 DraftKings / method / Submission: +275 |
| Jacob Malkoun vs Gerald Meerschaert | Moneyline | Jacob Malkoun (53.40% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -1600 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +900 |
| Jacob Malkoun vs Gerald Meerschaert | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (93.49% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -800 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +450 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: +135 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -175 |
| Jacob Malkoun vs Gerald Meerschaert | Over/under significant strikes | Jacob Malkoun: Over 21.5 (79.70% confidence); Gerald Meerschaert: Over 16.5 (81.12% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jacob Malkoun vs Gerald Meerschaert | Go the distance | No (62.33% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +175 DraftKings / distance / no: -245 |
| Jacob Malkoun vs Gerald Meerschaert | Method of victory | KO/TKO (53.27% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: -125 DraftKings / method / Decision: +1100 DraftKings / method / Submission: +800 |
| Colby Thicknesse vs Vince Morales | Moneyline | Colby Thicknesse (55.33% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -148 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +124 |
| Colby Thicknesse vs Vince Morales | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (84.57% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -8000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1100 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -315 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +230 |
| Colby Thicknesse vs Vince Morales | Over/under significant strikes | Colby Thicknesse: Over 25.5 (81.88% confidence); Vince Morales: Over 26.5 (78.24% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Colby Thicknesse vs Vince Morales | Go the distance | Yes (52.29% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -240 DraftKings / distance / no: +175 |
| Colby Thicknesse vs Vince Morales | Method of victory | Decision (60.75% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +350 DraftKings / method / Decision: +180 DraftKings / method / Submission: +135 |
| Ben Johnston vs Wes Schultz | Moneyline | Ben Johnston (54.84% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -155 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +130 |
| Ben Johnston vs Wes Schultz | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (79.80% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -475 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +300 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: +130 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -166 |
| Ben Johnston vs Wes Schultz | Over/under significant strikes | Ben Johnston: Under 22.5 (56.99% confidence); Wes Schultz: Under 26.5 (59.59% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Ben Johnston vs Wes Schultz | Go the distance | Yes (51.03% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +400 DraftKings / distance / no: -650 |
| Ben Johnston vs Wes Schultz | Method of victory | Decision (61.59% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +100 DraftKings / method / Decision: +400 DraftKings / method / Submission: +115 |
| Jonathan Micallef vs Themba Gorimbo | Moneyline | Jonathan Micallef (60.78% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -225 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +185 |
| Jonathan Micallef vs Themba Gorimbo | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (88.62% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1100 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +550 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -125 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -105 |
| Jonathan Micallef vs Themba Gorimbo | Over/under significant strikes | Jonathan Micallef: Under 42.5 (55.92% confidence); Themba Gorimbo: Under 58.5 (69.55% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jonathan Micallef vs Themba Gorimbo | Go the distance | No (61.33% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +130 DraftKings / distance / no: -170 |
| Jonathan Micallef vs Themba Gorimbo | Method of victory | Submission (36.43% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +380 DraftKings / method / Decision: +400 DraftKings / method / Submission: +275 |
| Dom Mar Fan vs Kody Steele | Moneyline | Kody Steele (56.56% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +130 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -155 |
| Dom Mar Fan vs Kody Steele | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (92.58% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -3000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +850 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -215 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +165 |
| Dom Mar Fan vs Kody Steele | Over/under significant strikes | Dom Mar Fan: Over 22.5 (89.57% confidence); Kody Steele: Over 26.5 (83.38% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Dom Mar Fan vs Kody Steele | Go the distance | Yes (66.45% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: -160 DraftKings / distance / no: +120 |
| Dom Mar Fan vs Kody Steele | Method of victory | Decision (44.15% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +600 DraftKings / method / Decision: +215 DraftKings / method / Submission: +175 |
Recorded public odds movement
First and last captured prices for each labelled outcome in the public snapshot. These are captured observations, not a claim to have the sportsbook's opening or closing price. The interactive archive provides the available intermediate observations.
| Matchup | Sportsbook | Outcome | First capture | Last capture | Captures |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates | DraftKings | Carlos Prates | +114 at 2026-03-04T09:41:16.687535-07:00 | -108 at 2026-05-02T07:41:59.567721-06:00 | 48 |
| Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates | DraftKings | Jack Della Maddalena | -135 at 2026-03-04T09:41:16.687480-07:00 | -112 at 2026-05-02T07:41:59.567672-06:00 | 48 |
| Beneil Dariush vs Quillan Salkilld | DraftKings | Beneil Dariush | +370 at 2026-04-25T14:41:35.418872-06:00 | +320 at 2026-05-02T07:12:12.545406-06:00 | 21 |
| Beneil Dariush vs Quillan Salkilld | DraftKings | Quillan Salkilld | -485 at 2026-04-25T14:41:35.418946-06:00 | -410 at 2026-05-02T07:12:12.545455-06:00 | 21 |
| Tim Elliott vs Steve Erceg | DraftKings | Steve Erceg | -455 at 2026-04-25T14:41:35.410799-06:00 | -192 at 2026-05-02T06:41:54.131782-06:00 | 32 |
| Tim Elliott vs Steve Erceg | DraftKings | Tim Elliott | +350 at 2026-04-25T14:41:35.410690-06:00 | +160 at 2026-05-02T06:41:54.131738-06:00 | 32 |
| Marwan Rahiki vs Ollie Schmid | DraftKings | Marwan Rahiki | -700 at 2026-04-30T17:42:52.504304-06:00 | -700 at 2026-05-01T15:18:55.502229-06:00 | 5 |
| Marwan Rahiki vs Ollie Schmid | DraftKings | Ollie Schmid | +500 at 2026-04-30T17:42:52.504354-06:00 | +500 at 2026-05-01T15:18:55.502265-06:00 | 5 |
| Shamil Gaziev vs Brando Peričić | DraftKings | Brando Pericic | -155 at 2026-04-25T14:41:35.401796-06:00 | -110 at 2026-05-02T04:13:01.185231-06:00 | 18 |
| Shamil Gaziev vs Brando Peričić | DraftKings | Shamil Gaziev | +130 at 2026-04-25T14:41:35.401703-06:00 | -110 at 2026-05-02T04:13:01.185162-06:00 | 18 |
| Tai Tuivasa vs Louie Sutherland | DraftKings | Louie Sutherland | +154 at 2026-04-28T06:41:03.159274-06:00 | +200 at 2026-05-02T05:11:59.364450-06:00 | 10 |
| Tai Tuivasa vs Louie Sutherland | DraftKings | Tai Tuivasa | -185 at 2026-04-28T06:41:03.159192-06:00 | -245 at 2026-05-02T05:11:59.364423-06:00 | 10 |
| Cam Rowston vs Robert Bryczek | DraftKings | Cam Rowston | -250 at 2026-04-25T14:41:35.393743-06:00 | -230 at 2026-05-02T04:41:57.154016-06:00 | 19 |
| Cam Rowston vs Robert Bryczek | DraftKings | Robert Bryczek | +205 at 2026-04-25T14:41:35.393817-06:00 | +190 at 2026-05-02T04:41:57.154044-06:00 | 19 |
| Junior Tafa vs Kevin Christian | DraftKings | Junior Tafa | -180 at 2026-04-25T14:41:35.385962-06:00 | -225 at 2026-05-02T04:13:01.127237-06:00 | 16 |
| Junior Tafa vs Kevin Christian | DraftKings | Kevin Christian | +150 at 2026-04-25T14:41:35.387114-06:00 | +185 at 2026-05-02T04:13:01.127302-06:00 | 16 |
| Jacob Malkoun vs Gerald Meerschaert | DraftKings | Gerald Meerschaert | +575 at 2026-04-25T14:41:35.376842-06:00 | +900 at 2026-05-01T11:19:53.045434-06:00 | 7 |
| Jacob Malkoun vs Gerald Meerschaert | DraftKings | Jacob Malkoun | -850 at 2026-04-25T14:41:35.376767-06:00 | -1600 at 2026-05-01T11:19:53.045411-06:00 | 7 |
| Colby Thicknesse vs Vince Morales | DraftKings | Colby Thicknesse | -162 at 2026-04-25T14:41:35.370301-06:00 | -148 at 2026-05-02T03:12:19.595988-06:00 | 29 |
| Colby Thicknesse vs Vince Morales | DraftKings | Vince Morales | +136 at 2026-04-25T14:41:35.370366-06:00 | +124 at 2026-05-02T03:12:19.596026-06:00 | 29 |
| Ben Johnston vs Wes Schultz | DraftKings | Ben Johnston | -155 at 2026-04-28T06:41:02.847401-06:00 | -155 at 2026-05-01T15:18:55.410416-06:00 | 9 |
| Ben Johnston vs Wes Schultz | DraftKings | Wesley Schultz | +130 at 2026-04-28T06:41:02.847516-06:00 | +130 at 2026-05-01T15:18:55.410442-06:00 | 9 |
| Jonathan Micallef vs Themba Gorimbo | DraftKings | Jonathan Micallef | -340 at 2026-04-25T14:41:35.361924-06:00 | -225 at 2026-05-01T18:11:52.810165-06:00 | 23 |
| Jonathan Micallef vs Themba Gorimbo | DraftKings | Themba Gorimbo | +270 at 2026-04-25T14:41:35.362000-06:00 | +185 at 2026-05-01T18:11:52.810197-06:00 | 23 |
| Dom Mar Fan vs Kody Steele | DraftKings | Dom Mar Fan | +160 at 2026-04-25T14:41:35.355738-06:00 | +130 at 2026-05-01T23:41:28.983374-06:00 | 16 |
| Dom Mar Fan vs Kody Steele | DraftKings | Kody Steele | -192 at 2026-04-25T14:41:35.355818-06:00 | -155 at 2026-05-01T23:41:28.983412-06:00 | 16 |