UFC 328 Chimaev vs Strickland prediction records
Event date: . 13 recorded matchups.
These records preserve the published predictions after the event. Confidence is a model estimate, not a guarantee or the archive win rate. Results use the recorded grading for each market. Missing picks, odds and grades stay unavailable; they are not fabricated. Odds shown here are historical American-odds snapshots from the public archive. Historical line movement and additional sportsbook views are available in the interactive archive under its access rules.
Prediction and data methodology · Report a sourced correction
| Matchup | Market | Published pick and confidence | Graded result | Recorded American odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland | Moneyline | Khamzat Chimaev (61.60% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -455 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +350 |
| Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland | Over/under rounds | Under 3.5, 4.5 (78.88% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1600 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +650 DraftKings / rounds / 3.5 / over: +105 DraftKings / rounds / 3.5 / under: -135 |
| Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland | Over/under significant strikes | Khamzat Chimaev: Over 55.5 (72.21% confidence); Sean Strickland: Over 61.5 (64.63% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 50.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 50.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 29.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 29.5 / under: -115 |
| Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland | Go the distance | No (55.60% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +180 DraftKings / distance / no: -245 |
| Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland | Method of victory | Submission (43.10% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: -180 DraftKings / method / Decision: +200 DraftKings / method / Submission: -330 |
| Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira | Moneyline | Joshua Van (55.41% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +140 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -166 |
| Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira | Over/under rounds | Over 1.5, 2.5 (95.01% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -5000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1000 DraftKings / rounds / 3.5 / over: -154 DraftKings / rounds / 3.5 / under: +120 |
| Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira | Over/under significant strikes | Joshua Van: Under 55.5 (64.13% confidence); Tatsuro Taira: Under 55.5 (60.50% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 77.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 77.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 45.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 45.5 / under: -115 |
| Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira | Go the distance | Yes (66.53% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +130 DraftKings / distance / no: -170 |
| Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira | Method of victory | Decision (48.93% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +150 DraftKings / method / Decision: +215 DraftKings / method / Submission: -140 |
| Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta | Moneyline | Waldo Cortes-Acosta (73.25% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -125 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +105 |
| Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (77.18% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -5000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1000 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -230 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +175 |
| Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta | Over/under significant strikes | Alexander Volkov: Under 79.5 (75.72% confidence); Waldo Cortes Acosta: Under 57.5 (66.65% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 54.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 54.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 48.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 48.5 / under: -115 |
| Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta | Go the distance | Yes (59.13% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -200 DraftKings / distance / no: +150 |
| Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta | Method of victory | Decision (46.87% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +115 DraftKings / method / Decision: +180 DraftKings / method / Submission: +185 |
| Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley | Moneyline | Sean Brady (64.73% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +136 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -162 |
| Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (83.61% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1600 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +650 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -135 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +105 |
| Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley | Over/under significant strikes | Sean Brady: Over 27.5 (80.73% confidence); Joaquin Buckley: Over 19.5 (87.61% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 33.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 33.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 38.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 38.5 / under: -115 |
| Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley | Go the distance | Yes (70.75% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -105 DraftKings / distance / no: -125 |
| Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley | Method of victory | Decision (52.87% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +250 DraftKings / method / Decision: +380 DraftKings / method / Submission: +450 |
| King Green vs Jeremy Stephens | Moneyline | King Green (65.30% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -455 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +350 |
| King Green vs Jeremy Stephens | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (92.82% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -2000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +750 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -135 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +105 |
| King Green vs Jeremy Stephens | Over/under significant strikes | King Green: Under 62.5 (63.00% confidence); Jeremy Stephens: Under 48.5 (52.94% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 69.5 / over: -130 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 69.5 / under: +100 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 39.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 39.5 / under: -115 |
| King Green vs Jeremy Stephens | Go the distance | Yes (50.75% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: -125 DraftKings / distance / no: -105 |
| King Green vs Jeremy Stephens | Method of victory | Decision (68.03% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +550 DraftKings / method / Decision: +650 DraftKings / method / Submission: +700 |
| Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz | Moneyline | Ateba Gautier (71.88% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -1350 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +800 |
| Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz | Over/under rounds | Under 1.5, 2.5 (86.70% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -250 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +180 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: +150 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -195 |
| Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz | Over/under significant strikes | Ateba Gautier: Over 43.5 (57.47% confidence); Ozzy Diaz: Under 54.5 (54.95% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 21.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 21.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 11.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 11.5 / under: -115 |
| Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz | Go the distance | No (76.50% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +600 DraftKings / distance / no: -1200 |
| Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz | Method of victory | KO/TKO (72.13% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +1100 DraftKings / method / Submission: +1200 DraftKings / method / Decision: +1200 |
| Joel Álvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov | Moneyline | Yaroslav Amosov (61.88% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +160 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -192 |
| Joel Álvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (88.40% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1600 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +650 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -238 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +180 |
| Joel Álvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov | Over/under significant strikes | Joel Álvarez: Under 54.5 (56.56% confidence); Yaroslav Amosov: Under 37.5 (54.25% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 29.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 29.5 / under: -115 |
| Joel Álvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov | Go the distance | No (88.40% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +100 DraftKings / distance / no: -130 |
| Joel Álvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov | Method of victory | Submission (48.30% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +275 DraftKings / method / Decision: +380 DraftKings / method / Submission: +225 |
| Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rębecki | Moneyline | Grant Dawson (81.25% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -148 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +124 |
| Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rębecki | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (85.41% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1800 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +700 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -125 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -105 |
| Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rębecki | Over/under significant strikes | Grant Dawson: Over 21.5 (83.76% confidence); Mateusz Rębecki: Over 16.5 (85.81% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 32.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 32.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 37.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 37.5 / under: -115 |
| Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rębecki | Go the distance | No (57.43% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -120 DraftKings / distance / no: -110 |
| Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rębecki | Method of victory | Submission (43.37% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +215 DraftKings / method / Decision: +320 DraftKings / method / Submission: +350 |
| Jim Miller vs Jared Gordon | Moneyline | Jared Gordon (55.22% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +225 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -278 |
| Jim Miller vs Jared Gordon | Over/under rounds | Over 1.5, 2.5 (89.25% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -3000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +850 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -145 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +114 |
| Jim Miller vs Jared Gordon | Over/under significant strikes | Jim Miller: Over 25.5 (70.81% confidence); Jared Gordon: Over 26.5 (69.62% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 57.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 57.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 37.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 37.5 / under: -115 |
| Jim Miller vs Jared Gordon | Go the distance | Yes (60.08% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: -145 DraftKings / distance / no: +110 |
| Jim Miller vs Jared Gordon | Method of victory | Decision (62.03% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +225 DraftKings / method / Decision: -120 DraftKings / method / Submission: -135 |
| Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio | Moneyline | Marco Tulio (76.91% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +154 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -185 |
| Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (78.15% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1400 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +600 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -125 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -105 |
| Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio | Over/under significant strikes | Roman Kopylov: Over 26.5 (79.43% confidence); Marco Tulio: Over 22.5 (84.05% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 47.5 / over: -130 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 47.5 / under: +100 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 58.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 58.5 / under: -115 |
| Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio | Go the distance | No (84.00% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +110 DraftKings / distance / no: -145 |
| Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio | Method of victory | KO/TKO (65.93% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +300 DraftKings / method / Decision: +165 DraftKings / method / Submission: +150 |
| Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis | Moneyline | Pat Sabatini (54.78% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -170 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +142 |
| Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis | Over/under rounds | Over 1.5, 2.5 (68.46% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -2500 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +800 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -180 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +140 |
| Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis | Over/under significant strikes | Pat Sabatini: Under 42.5 (56.35% confidence); William Gomis: Under 58.5 (63.68% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 20.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 20.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 23.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 23.5 / under: -115 |
| Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis | Go the distance | Yes (61.60% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -145 DraftKings / distance / no: +110 |
| Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis | Method of victory | Decision (68.83% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +475 DraftKings / method / Decision: +200 DraftKings / method / Submission: +215 |
| Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos | Moneyline | Baisangur Susurkaev (53.85% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -850 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +575 |
| Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos | Over/under rounds | Under 1.5, 2.5 (84.26% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -800 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +450 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -188 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +145 |
| Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos | Over/under significant strikes | Baisangur Susurkaev: Over 26.5 (80.93% confidence); Djorden Santos: Over 22.5 (80.39% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 30.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 30.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 42.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 42.5 / under: -115 |
| Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos | Go the distance | No (60.00% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +150 DraftKings / distance / no: -200 |
| Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos | Method of victory | KO/TKO (54.87% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +900 DraftKings / method / Decision: +900 DraftKings / method / Submission: +950 |
| Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa | Moneyline | Jose Ochoa (51.99% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +145 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -175 |
| Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (65.76% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -3500 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +900 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -195 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +150 |
| Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa | Over/under significant strikes | Clayton Carpenter: Over 26.5 (87.71% confidence); Jose Ochoa: Over 22.5 (88.91% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 38.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 38.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 45.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 45.5 / under: -115 |
| Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa | Go the distance | No (64.65% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: -160 DraftKings / distance / no: +120 |
| Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa | Method of victory | KO/TKO (44.33% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +225 DraftKings / method / Decision: +110 DraftKings / method / Submission: +110 |
Recorded public odds movement
First and last captured prices for each labelled outcome in the public snapshot. These are captured observations, not a claim to have the sportsbook's opening or closing price. The interactive archive provides the available intermediate observations.
| Matchup | Sportsbook | Outcome | First capture | Last capture | Captures |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland | DraftKings | Khamzat Chimaev | -325 at 2026-02-22T10:41:02.996435-07:00 | -455 at 2026-05-09T22:12:57.776528-06:00 | 36 |
| Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland | DraftKings | Sean Strickland | +260 at 2026-02-22T10:41:02.996552-07:00 | +350 at 2026-05-09T22:12:57.776560-06:00 | 36 |
| Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira | DraftKings | Josh Van | +150 at 2026-04-04T19:11:49.451776-06:00 | +140 at 2026-05-09T21:12:50.709308-06:00 | 29 |
| Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira | DraftKings | Tatsuro Taira | -180 at 2026-04-04T19:11:49.451826-06:00 | -166 at 2026-05-09T21:12:50.709335-06:00 | 29 |
| Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta | DraftKings | Alexander Volkov | -148 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.879457-06:00 | -125 at 2026-05-09T12:12:01.410938-06:00 | 31 |
| Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta | DraftKings | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | +124 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.881857-06:00 | +105 at 2026-05-09T12:12:01.410987-06:00 | 31 |
| Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley | DraftKings | Joaquin Buckley | +170 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.845872-06:00 | -162 at 2026-05-09T19:42:36.473356-06:00 | 36 |
| Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley | DraftKings | Sean Brady | -205 at 2026-03-17T06:40:48.843214-06:00 | +136 at 2026-05-09T19:42:36.473333-06:00 | 36 |
| Joel Álvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov | DraftKings | Joel Alvarez | +154 at 2026-04-30T16:42:22.714963-06:00 | +160 at 2026-05-09T18:12:29.505971-06:00 | 27 |
| Joel Álvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov | DraftKings | Yaroslav Amosov | -185 at 2026-04-30T16:42:22.715038-06:00 | -192 at 2026-05-09T18:12:29.506008-06:00 | 27 |
| Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rębecki | DraftKings | Grant Dawson | -122 at 2026-04-30T16:42:22.711016-06:00 | -148 at 2026-05-09T13:12:22.951692-06:00 | 19 |
| Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rębecki | DraftKings | Mateusz Rębecki | +102 at 2026-04-30T16:42:22.711101-06:00 | +124 at 2026-05-09T13:12:22.951725-06:00 | 19 |
| Jim Miller vs Jared Gordon | DraftKings | Jared Gordon | -305 at 2026-04-30T16:42:22.706718-06:00 | -278 at 2026-05-09T17:12:43.024507-06:00 | 14 |
| Jim Miller vs Jared Gordon | DraftKings | Jim Miller | +245 at 2026-04-30T16:42:22.706633-06:00 | +225 at 2026-05-09T17:12:43.024475-06:00 | 14 |
| Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio | DraftKings | Marco Tulio Silva | -185 at 2026-04-30T16:42:22.696161-06:00 | -185 at 2026-05-09T16:43:24.595072-06:00 | 14 |
| Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio | DraftKings | Roman Kopylov | +154 at 2026-04-30T16:42:22.696077-06:00 | +154 at 2026-05-09T16:43:24.594997-06:00 | 14 |
| Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis | DraftKings | Pat Sabatini | -205 at 2026-05-02T08:40:50.957474-06:00 | -170 at 2026-05-09T15:42:45.515877-06:00 | 24 |
| Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis | DraftKings | William Gomis | +170 at 2026-05-02T08:40:50.957523-06:00 | +142 at 2026-05-09T15:42:45.515900-06:00 | 24 |
| Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos | DraftKings | Baysangur Susurkaev | -625 at 2026-05-03T19:11:12.320167-06:00 | -850 at 2026-05-09T15:42:45.503220-06:00 | 13 |
| Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos | DraftKings | Diorden Santos | +455 at 2026-05-03T19:11:12.320266-06:00 | +575 at 2026-05-09T15:42:45.503247-06:00 | 13 |
| Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa | DraftKings | Clayton Carpenter | +142 at 2026-05-02T08:40:50.954592-06:00 | +145 at 2026-05-09T13:43:06.325241-06:00 | 8 |
| Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa | DraftKings | Jose Ochoa | -170 at 2026-05-02T08:40:50.954674-06:00 | -175 at 2026-05-09T13:43:06.325279-06:00 | 8 |