UFC Fight Night Allen vs Costa prediction records
Event date: . 13 recorded matchups.
These records preserve the published predictions after the event. Confidence is a model estimate, not a guarantee or the archive win rate. Results use the recorded grading for each market. Missing picks, odds and grades stay unavailable; they are not fabricated. Odds shown here are historical American-odds snapshots from the public archive. Historical line movement and additional sportsbook views are available in the interactive archive under its access rules.
Prediction and data methodology · Report a sourced correction
| Matchup | Market | Published pick and confidence | Graded result | Recorded American odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa | Moneyline | Arnold Allen (61.59% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -120 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +100 |
| Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa | Over/under rounds | Over 2.5, 3.5 (85.76% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -20000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1200 DraftKings / rounds / 4.5 / over: -125 DraftKings / rounds / 4.5 / under: -105 |
| Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa | Over/under significant strikes | Arnold Allen: Over 55.5 (89.72% confidence); Melquizael Costa: Over 61.5 (85.67% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 74.5 / over: -120 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 74.5 / under: -110 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 77.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 77.5 / under: -115 |
| Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa | Go the distance | Yes (61.03% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -135 DraftKings / distance / no: +105 |
| Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa | Method of victory | Decision (47.07% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +275 DraftKings / method / Decision: +225 DraftKings / method / Submission: +150 |
| Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos | Moneyline | Doo Ho Choi (58.02% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +140 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -166 |
| Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (75.76% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1600 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +650 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -110 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -120 |
| Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos | Over/under significant strikes | Dooho Choi: Under 55.5 (75.50% confidence); Daniel Santos: Under 55.5 (73.74% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 56.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 56.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 53.5 / over: -120 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 53.5 / under: -110 |
| Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos | Go the distance | Yes (68.39% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +100 DraftKings / distance / no: -130 |
| Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos | Method of victory | Decision (38.04% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +175 DraftKings / method / Decision: +150 DraftKings / method / Submission: +120 |
| Malcolm Wellmaker vs Juan Diaz | Moneyline | Malcolm Wellmaker (56.98% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -225 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +185 |
| Malcolm Wellmaker vs Juan Diaz | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (58.26% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1100 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +550 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -120 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -110 |
| Malcolm Wellmaker vs Juan Diaz | Over/under significant strikes | Malcolm Wellmaker: Under 79.5 (88.65% confidence); Juan Diaz: Under 57.5 (62.94% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 54.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 54.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 44.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 44.5 / under: -115 |
| Malcolm Wellmaker vs Juan Diaz | Go the distance | No (62.04% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +120 DraftKings / distance / no: -160 |
| Malcolm Wellmaker vs Juan Diaz | Method of victory | KO/TKO (45.52% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +450 DraftKings / method / Decision: +380 DraftKings / method / Submission: +320 |
| Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato | Moneyline | Modestas Bukauskas (55.03% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -112 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -108 |
| Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (83.26% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato | Over/under significant strikes | Modestas Bukauskas: Over 27.5 (83.65% confidence); Rodolfo Bellato: Over 19.5 (88.54% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato | Go the distance | No (63.80% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato | Method of victory | Submission (50.13% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj | Moneyline | Bernardo Sopaj (62.32% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +102 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -122 |
| Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj | Over/under rounds | Over 1.5, 2.5 (68.26% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -5000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1000 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -280 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +210 |
| Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj | Over/under significant strikes | Timmy Cuamba: Under 62.5 (69.96% confidence); Benardo Sopaj: Over 48.5 (53.53% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 39.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 39.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 48.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 48.5 / under: -115 |
| Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj | Go the distance | Yes (68.85% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: -200 DraftKings / distance / no: +150 |
| Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj | Method of victory | Decision (48.38% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +450 DraftKings / method / Decision: +150 DraftKings / method / Submission: +150 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov vs Khaos Williams | Moneyline | Khaos Williams (80.43% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -108 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -112 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov vs Khaos Williams | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (80.52% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1600 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +650 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -195 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +150 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov vs Khaos Williams | Over/under significant strikes | Nikolay Veretennikov: Over 43.5 (52.53% confidence); Khaos Williams: Under 54.5 (67.98% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 39.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 39.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 35.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 35.5 / under: -115 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov vs Khaos Williams | Go the distance | No (50.43% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +110 DraftKings / distance / no: -145 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov vs Khaos Williams | Method of victory | KO/TKO (53.97% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +275 DraftKings / method / Decision: +175 DraftKings / method / Submission: +240 |
| Tuco Tokkos vs Ivan Erslan | Moneyline | Tuco Tokkos (58.96% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +140 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -166 |
| Tuco Tokkos vs Ivan Erslan | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (73.48% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +500 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: +105 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -135 |
| Tuco Tokkos vs Ivan Erslan | Over/under significant strikes | Tuco Tokkos: Under 54.5 (70.83% confidence); Ivan Erslan: Over 37.5 (61.96% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 27.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 27.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 32.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 32.5 / under: -115 |
| Tuco Tokkos vs Ivan Erslan | Go the distance | No (56.67% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +150 DraftKings / distance / no: -200 |
| Tuco Tokkos vs Ivan Erslan | Method of victory | KO/TKO (44.03% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +165 DraftKings / method / Decision: +225 DraftKings / method / Submission: +275 |
| Thomas Gantt vs Artur Minev | Moneyline | Thomas Gantt (63.64% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -185 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +154 |
| Thomas Gantt vs Artur Minev | Over/under rounds | Under 1.5, 2.5 (87.88% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +500 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: +105 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -135 |
| Thomas Gantt vs Artur Minev | Over/under significant strikes | Thomas Gantt: No pick recorded; Artur Minev: No pick recorded | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Thomas Gantt vs Artur Minev | Go the distance | No (63.65% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +130 DraftKings / distance / no: -170 |
| Thomas Gantt vs Artur Minev | Method of victory | KO/TKO (47.06% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +275 DraftKings / method / Decision: +350 DraftKings / method / Submission: +320 |
| Ketlen Vieira vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti | Moneyline | Jacqueline Cavalcanti (57.09% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +124 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -148 |
| Ketlen Vieira vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (84.65% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -20000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1200 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -580 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +380 |
| Ketlen Vieira vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti | Over/under significant strikes | Ketlen Vieira: Over 25.5 (80.45% confidence); Jacqueline Cavalcanti: Over 26.5 (89.46% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 42.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 42.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 61.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 61.5 / under: -115 |
| Ketlen Vieira vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti | Go the distance | Yes (60.60% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -500 DraftKings / distance / no: +320 |
| Ketlen Vieira vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti | Method of victory | Decision (48.20% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +600 DraftKings / method / Decision: -125 DraftKings / method / Submission: -125 |
| Cody Brundage vs Andre Petroski | Moneyline | Andre Petroski (60.11% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +136 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -162 |
| Cody Brundage vs Andre Petroski | Over/under rounds | Over 1.5, 2.5 (80.62% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1400 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +600 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -230 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +175 |
| Cody Brundage vs Andre Petroski | Over/under significant strikes | Cody Brundage: Over 22.5 (81.86% confidence); Andre Petroski: Over 26.5 (88.10% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 29.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 29.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 25.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 25.5 / under: -115 |
| Cody Brundage vs Andre Petroski | Go the distance | No (63.63% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +120 DraftKings / distance / no: -160 |
| Cody Brundage vs Andre Petroski | Method of victory | Decision (37.53% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +250 DraftKings / method / Decision: +475 DraftKings / method / Submission: +425 |
| Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana | Moneyline | Alice Ardelean (56.38% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -180 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +150 |
| Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana | Over/under rounds | Over 1.5, 2.5 (70.62% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -5000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1000 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -200 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +154 |
| Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana | Over/under significant strikes | Alice Ardelean: Over 26.5 (85.34% confidence); Polyana Viana: Over 22.5 (85.36% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 68.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 68.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 43.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 43.5 / under: -115 |
| Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana | Go the distance | Yes (70.20% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: -200 DraftKings / distance / no: +150 |
| Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana | Method of victory | Decision (38.66% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +350 DraftKings / method / Decision: -135 DraftKings / method / Submission: -200 |
| Daniel Barez vs Luis Gurule | Moneyline | Luis Gurule (57.12% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +150 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -180 |
| Daniel Barez vs Luis Gurule | Over/under rounds | Over 1.5, 2.5 (70.41% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -2000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +750 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -210 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +160 |
| Daniel Barez vs Luis Gurule | Over/under significant strikes | Daniel Barez: Over 42.5 (51.76% confidence); Luis Gurule: Under 58.5 (76.24% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 45.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 45.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 47.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 47.5 / under: -115 |
| Daniel Barez vs Luis Gurule | Go the distance | Yes (52.45% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -135 DraftKings / distance / no: +105 |
| Daniel Barez vs Luis Gurule | Method of victory | Decision (55.48% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +250 DraftKings / method / Decision: +140 DraftKings / method / Submission: +120 |
| Shauna Bannon vs Nicolle Caliari | Moneyline | Nicole Caliari (57.32% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +210 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -258 |
| Shauna Bannon vs Nicolle Caliari | Over/under rounds | Over 1.5, 2.5 (73.52% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -20000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1200 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -260 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +195 |
| Shauna Bannon vs Nicolle Caliari | Over/under significant strikes | Shauna Bannon: Over 26.5 (80.17% confidence); Nicolle Caliari: Over 22.5 (80.94% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 40.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 40.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 39.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 39.5 / under: -115 |
| Shauna Bannon vs Nicolle Caliari | Go the distance | Yes (47.53% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: -340 DraftKings / distance / no: +240 |
| Shauna Bannon vs Nicolle Caliari | Method of victory | Decision (49.56% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +350 DraftKings / method / Decision: -165 DraftKings / method / Submission: -250 |
Recorded public odds movement
First and last captured prices for each labelled outcome in the public snapshot. These are captured observations, not a claim to have the sportsbook's opening or closing price. The interactive archive provides the available intermediate observations.
| Matchup | Sportsbook | Outcome | First capture | Last capture | Captures |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa | DraftKings | Arnold Allen | -166 at 2026-05-08T15:19:19.668360-06:00 | -120 at 2026-05-16T20:11:50.980964-06:00 | 25 |
| Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa | DraftKings | Melquizael Costa | +140 at 2026-05-08T15:19:19.668421-06:00 | +100 at 2026-05-16T20:11:50.981002-06:00 | 25 |
| Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos | DraftKings | Daniel Santos | -130 at 2026-05-08T15:19:19.641248-06:00 | -166 at 2026-05-16T14:42:11.869994-06:00 | 26 |
| Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos | DraftKings | Doo Ho Choi | +110 at 2026-05-08T15:19:19.641181-06:00 | +140 at 2026-05-16T14:42:11.869971-06:00 | 26 |
| Malcolm Wellmaker vs Juan Diaz | DraftKings | Juan Diaz | +205 at 2026-05-12T06:41:16.648379-06:00 | +185 at 2026-05-16T13:42:00.478571-06:00 | 6 |
| Malcolm Wellmaker vs Juan Diaz | DraftKings | Malcolm Wellmaker | -250 at 2026-05-12T06:41:16.648281-06:00 | -225 at 2026-05-16T13:42:00.478543-06:00 | 6 |
| Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato | DraftKings | Modestas Bukauskas | -130 at 2026-05-08T15:19:19.638712-06:00 | -112 at 2026-05-12T06:41:16.616940-06:00 | 9 |
| Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato | DraftKings | Rodolfo Bellato | +110 at 2026-05-08T15:19:19.638766-06:00 | -108 at 2026-05-12T06:41:16.616975-06:00 | 9 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov vs Khaos Williams | DraftKings | Khaos Williams | -125 at 2026-05-08T15:19:19.665719-06:00 | -112 at 2026-05-16T18:11:51.582529-06:00 | 32 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov vs Khaos Williams | DraftKings | Nikolay Veretennikov | +105 at 2026-05-08T15:19:19.665782-06:00 | -108 at 2026-05-16T18:11:51.582492-06:00 | 32 |
| Thomas Gantt vs Artur Minev | DraftKings | Artur Minev | +195 at 2026-05-13T09:56:31.695183-06:00 | +154 at 2026-05-16T17:11:35.173796-06:00 | 12 |
| Thomas Gantt vs Artur Minev | DraftKings | Thomas Gantt | -238 at 2026-05-13T09:56:31.694952-06:00 | -185 at 2026-05-16T17:11:35.173772-06:00 | 12 |
| Ketlen Vieira vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti | DraftKings | Jacqueline Cavalcanti | -148 at 2026-05-08T15:19:19.656576-06:00 | -148 at 2026-05-16T08:11:48.451434-06:00 | 15 |
| Ketlen Vieira vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti | DraftKings | Ketlen Vieira | +124 at 2026-05-08T15:19:19.656506-06:00 | +124 at 2026-05-16T08:11:48.451411-06:00 | 15 |
| Cody Brundage vs Andre Petroski | DraftKings | Andre Petroski | -218 at 2026-05-08T15:19:19.659060-06:00 | -162 at 2026-05-16T15:12:11.282578-06:00 | 17 |
| Cody Brundage vs Andre Petroski | DraftKings | Cody Brundage | +180 at 2026-05-08T15:19:19.659004-06:00 | +136 at 2026-05-16T15:12:11.282546-06:00 | 17 |
| Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana | DraftKings | Alice Ardelean | -198 at 2026-05-08T15:19:19.651382-06:00 | -180 at 2026-05-16T15:12:11.249043-06:00 | 15 |
| Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana | DraftKings | Polyana Viana | +164 at 2026-05-08T15:19:19.651445-06:00 | +150 at 2026-05-16T15:12:11.249079-06:00 | 15 |
| Daniel Barez vs Luis Gurule | DraftKings | Daniel Barez | -115 at 2026-05-08T15:19:19.653991-06:00 | +150 at 2026-05-16T13:42:00.397945-06:00 | 21 |
| Daniel Barez vs Luis Gurule | DraftKings | Luis Gurule | -105 at 2026-05-08T15:19:19.654053-06:00 | -180 at 2026-05-16T13:42:00.397995-06:00 | 21 |
| Shauna Bannon vs Nicolle Caliari | DraftKings | Nicolle Caliari | -180 at 2026-05-08T15:19:19.661513-06:00 | -258 at 2026-05-16T15:12:11.154574-06:00 | 22 |
| Shauna Bannon vs Nicolle Caliari | DraftKings | Shauna Bannon | +150 at 2026-05-08T15:19:19.661453-06:00 | +210 at 2026-05-16T15:12:11.154514-06:00 | 22 |