UFC Fight Night Muhammad vs Bonfim prediction records
Event date: . 12 recorded matchups.
These records preserve the published predictions after the event. Confidence is a model estimate, not a guarantee or the archive win rate. Results use the recorded grading for each market. Missing picks, odds and grades stay unavailable; they are not fabricated. Odds shown here are historical American-odds snapshots from the public archive. Historical line movement and additional sportsbook views are available in the interactive archive under its access rules.
Prediction and data methodology · Report a sourced correction
| Matchup | Market | Published pick and confidence | Graded result | Recorded American odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim | Moneyline | Gabriel Bonfim (51.15% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -115 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -105 |
| Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim | Over/under rounds | Over 3.5, 4.5 (79.33% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -20000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1200 DraftKings / rounds / 3.5 / over: -180 DraftKings / rounds / 3.5 / under: +140 |
| Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim | Over/under significant strikes | Belal Muhammad: Over 65.5 (58.53% confidence); Gabriel Bonfim: Over 60.5 (67.37% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 60.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 60.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 70.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 70.5 / under: -115 |
| Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim | Go the distance | Yes (77.44% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -115 DraftKings / distance / no: -115 |
| Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim | Method of victory | Decision (61.80% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +180 DraftKings / method / Decision: +300 DraftKings / method / Submission: +185 |
| Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan | Moneyline | Brendan Allen (48.79% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -185 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +154 |
| Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (95.21% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +500 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -175 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +135 |
| Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan | Over/under significant strikes | Brendan Allen: Over 36.5 (56.26% confidence); Edmen Shahbazyan: Over 36.5 (56.19% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 33.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 33.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 36.5 / over: -125 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 36.5 / under: -105 |
| Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan | Go the distance | Yes (82.90% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +150 DraftKings / distance / no: -200 |
| Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan | Method of victory | Decision (41.57% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +250 DraftKings / method / Decision: +380 DraftKings / method / Submission: +450 |
| Farès Ziam vs Tom Nolan | Moneyline | Tom Nolan (69.53% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -310 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +250 |
| Farès Ziam vs Tom Nolan | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (86.11% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1600 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +650 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -245 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +185 |
| Farès Ziam vs Tom Nolan | Over/under significant strikes | Farès Ziam: Under 38.5 (54.79% confidence); Tom Nolan: Over 27.5 (65.38% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 26.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 26.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 38.5 / over: -125 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 38.5 / under: -105 |
| Farès Ziam vs Tom Nolan | Go the distance | Yes (62.75% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -110 DraftKings / distance / no: -120 |
| Farès Ziam vs Tom Nolan | Method of victory | Decision (39.21% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +650 DraftKings / method / Decision: +350 DraftKings / method / Submission: +350 |
| Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna | Moneyline | Bryce Mitchell (77.50% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (84.90% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -2500 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +800 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -166 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +130 |
| Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna | Over/under significant strikes | Bryce Mitchell: Under 33.5 (53.58% confidence); Santiago Luna: Under 35.5 (58.88% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 32.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 32.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 36.5 / over: -130 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 36.5 / under: +100 |
| Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna | Go the distance | No (58.13% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -160 DraftKings / distance / no: +120 |
| Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna | Method of victory | Submission (55.40% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +330 DraftKings / method / Decision: +130 DraftKings / method / Submission: -120 |
| Iwo Baraniewski vs Junior Tafa | Moneyline | Iwo Baraniewski (62.37% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -455 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +350 |
| Iwo Baraniewski vs Junior Tafa | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (73.94% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -275 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +195 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: +180 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -238 |
| Iwo Baraniewski vs Junior Tafa | Over/under significant strikes | Iwo Baraniewski: Under 18.5 (64.72% confidence); Junior Tafa: Under 22.5 (62.28% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 16.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 16.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 11.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 11.5 / under: -115 |
| Iwo Baraniewski vs Junior Tafa | Go the distance | No (60.77% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +650 DraftKings / distance / no: -1400 |
| Iwo Baraniewski vs Junior Tafa | Method of victory | KO/TKO (76.83% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +380 DraftKings / method / Submission: +1200 DraftKings / method / Decision: +1200 |
| Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa | Moneyline | Matt Schnell (51.23% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +330 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -425 |
| Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (96.17% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -425 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +275 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: +114 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -145 |
| Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa | Over/under significant strikes | Matt Schnell: Over 28.5 (53.00% confidence); Alessandro Costa: Under 32.5 (53.78% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa | Go the distance | No (57.35% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +400 DraftKings / distance / no: -650 |
| Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa | Method of victory | KO/TKO (41.23% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +550 DraftKings / method / Decision: +650 DraftKings / method / Submission: +450 |
| Marcus McGhee vs John Yannis | Moneyline | Marcus McGhee (52.61% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -395 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +310 |
| Marcus McGhee vs John Yannis | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (83.67% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1100 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +550 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -120 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -110 |
| Marcus McGhee vs John Yannis | Over/under significant strikes | Marcus McGhee: Over 54.5 (53.23% confidence); John Yannis: Under 38.5 (55.11% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Marcus McGhee vs John Yannis | Go the distance | Yes (62.03% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +130 DraftKings / distance / no: -170 |
| Marcus McGhee vs John Yannis | Method of victory | KO/TKO (45.61% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +700 DraftKings / method / Decision: +475 DraftKings / method / Submission: +475 |
| Bruno Silva vs Edgar Chairez | Moneyline | Bruno Silva (79.05% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -115 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -105 |
| Bruno Silva vs Edgar Chairez | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (87.40% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -2000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +750 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -175 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +135 |
| Bruno Silva vs Edgar Chairez | Over/under significant strikes | Bruno Silva: Under 47.5 (60.12% confidence); Edgar Chairez: Under 45.5 (53.59% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Bruno Silva vs Edgar Chairez | Go the distance | No (68.28% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -125 DraftKings / distance / no: -105 |
| Bruno Silva vs Edgar Chairez | Method of victory | KO/TKO (44.20% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +215 DraftKings / method / Decision: +240 DraftKings / method / Submission: +165 |
| Priscila Cachoeira vs Chelsea Chandler | Moneyline | Priscila Cachoeira (75.48% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +120 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -142 |
| Priscila Cachoeira vs Chelsea Chandler | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (84.04% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1800 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +700 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -125 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -105 |
| Priscila Cachoeira vs Chelsea Chandler | Over/under significant strikes | Priscila Cachoeira: Over 50.5 (59.51% confidence); Chelsea Chandler: Under 44.5 (53.88% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Priscila Cachoeira vs Chelsea Chandler | Go the distance | Yes (49.94% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: -105 DraftKings / distance / no: -125 |
| Priscila Cachoeira vs Chelsea Chandler | Method of victory | Decision (59.17% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +275 DraftKings / method / Decision: +140 DraftKings / method / Submission: +105 |
| Jordan Leavitt vs Joanderson Brito | Moneyline | Joanderson Brito (56.21% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +140 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -166 |
| Jordan Leavitt vs Joanderson Brito | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (90.62% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1400 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +600 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -110 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -120 |
| Jordan Leavitt vs Joanderson Brito | Over/under significant strikes | Jordan Leavitt: Under 18.5 (54.74% confidence); Joanderson Brito: Under 24.5 (58.37% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jordan Leavitt vs Joanderson Brito | Go the distance | No (70.95% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +100 DraftKings / distance / no: -130 |
| Jordan Leavitt vs Joanderson Brito | Method of victory | Submission (39.99% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +150 DraftKings / method / Decision: +175 DraftKings / method / Submission: +115 |
| Jeisla Chaves vs Yuneisy Duben | Moneyline | Jeisla Chaves (73.94% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -258 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +210 |
| Jeisla Chaves vs Yuneisy Duben | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (55.82% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1400 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +600 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -120 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -110 |
| Jeisla Chaves vs Yuneisy Duben | Over/under significant strikes | Jeisla Chaves: Under 62.5 (55.47% confidence); Yuneisy Duben: Under 42.5 (59.18% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jeisla Chaves vs Yuneisy Duben | Go the distance | No (92.79% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +100 DraftKings / distance / no: -130 |
| Jeisla Chaves vs Yuneisy Duben | Method of victory | KO/TKO (71.13% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +450 DraftKings / method / Decision: +380 DraftKings / method / Submission: +380 |
| Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi | Moneyline | Ariane Carnelossi (61.75% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -355 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +280 |
| Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (58.79% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -3500 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +900 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -215 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +165 |
| Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi | Over/under significant strikes | Ketlen Souza: Under 49.5 (53.27% confidence); Ariane Carnelossi: Over 34.5 (59.43% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi | Go the distance | Yes (67.25% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: -185 DraftKings / distance / no: +140 |
| Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi | Method of victory | Decision (65.33% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +650 DraftKings / method / Decision: +400 DraftKings / method / Submission: +380 |
Recorded public odds movement
First and last captured prices for each labelled outcome in the public snapshot. These are captured observations, not a claim to have the sportsbook's opening or closing price. The interactive archive provides the available intermediate observations.
| Matchup | Sportsbook | Outcome | First capture | Last capture | Captures |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim | DraftKings | Belal Muhammad | -142 at 2026-05-28T17:18:14.355702-06:00 | -115 at 2026-06-06T20:12:14.788845-06:00 | 19 |
| Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim | DraftKings | Gabriel Bonfim | +120 at 2026-05-28T17:18:14.355804-06:00 | -105 at 2026-06-06T20:12:14.788894-06:00 | 19 |
| Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan | DraftKings | Brendan Allen | -225 at 2026-05-28T18:11:47.862992-06:00 | -185 at 2026-06-06T17:41:45.518106-06:00 | 25 |
| Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan | DraftKings | Edmen Shahbazyan | +185 at 2026-05-28T18:11:47.863169-06:00 | +154 at 2026-06-06T17:41:45.518145-06:00 | 25 |
| Farès Ziam vs Tom Nolan | DraftKings | Fares Ziam | -310 at 2026-05-29T12:42:18.631808-06:00 | -310 at 2026-06-06T15:13:04.295472-06:00 | 14 |
| Farès Ziam vs Tom Nolan | DraftKings | Tom Nolan | +250 at 2026-05-29T12:42:18.631920-06:00 | +250 at 2026-06-06T15:13:04.295510-06:00 | 14 |
| Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna | DraftKings | Bryce Mitchell | -180 at 2026-05-29T12:42:18.623538-06:00 | -142 at 2026-06-01T16:33:18.463734-06:00 | 4 |
| Iwo Baraniewski vs Junior Tafa | DraftKings | Iwo Baraniewski | -250 at 2026-05-29T12:42:18.611857-06:00 | -455 at 2026-06-06T18:12:35.202400-06:00 | 25 |
| Iwo Baraniewski vs Junior Tafa | DraftKings | Junior Tafa | +205 at 2026-05-29T12:42:18.611951-06:00 | +350 at 2026-06-06T18:12:35.202431-06:00 | 25 |
| Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa | DraftKings | Alessandro Costa | -750 at 2026-05-31T14:42:06.680570-06:00 | -425 at 2026-06-06T17:12:30.021024-06:00 | 14 |
| Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa | DraftKings | Matt Schnell | +525 at 2026-05-31T14:42:06.680469-06:00 | +330 at 2026-06-06T17:12:30.020973-06:00 | 14 |
| Marcus McGhee vs John Yannis | DraftKings | John Yannis | +370 at 2026-05-29T12:42:18.593218-06:00 | +310 at 2026-06-06T15:42:39.739911-06:00 | 13 |
| Marcus McGhee vs John Yannis | DraftKings | Marcus McGhee | -485 at 2026-05-29T12:42:18.593150-06:00 | -395 at 2026-06-06T15:42:39.739866-06:00 | 13 |
| Bruno Silva vs Edgar Chairez | DraftKings | Bruno Silva | -125 at 2026-05-29T12:42:18.587729-06:00 | -115 at 2026-06-06T16:12:20.813142-06:00 | 11 |
| Bruno Silva vs Edgar Chairez | DraftKings | Edgar Chairez | +105 at 2026-05-29T12:42:18.587799-06:00 | -105 at 2026-06-06T16:12:20.813187-06:00 | 11 |
| Priscila Cachoeira vs Chelsea Chandler | DraftKings | Chelsea Chandler | -120 at 2026-05-29T12:42:18.578660-06:00 | -142 at 2026-06-06T15:13:04.224688-06:00 | 13 |
| Priscila Cachoeira vs Chelsea Chandler | DraftKings | Priscila Cachoeira | +100 at 2026-05-29T12:42:18.578580-06:00 | +120 at 2026-06-06T15:13:04.224653-06:00 | 13 |
| Jordan Leavitt vs Joanderson Brito | DraftKings | Joanderson Brito | -180 at 2026-05-29T12:42:18.564606-06:00 | -166 at 2026-06-06T15:13:04.212938-06:00 | 14 |
| Jordan Leavitt vs Joanderson Brito | DraftKings | Jordan Leavitt | +150 at 2026-05-29T12:42:18.564534-06:00 | +140 at 2026-06-06T15:13:04.212902-06:00 | 14 |
| Jeisla Chaves vs Yuneisy Duben | DraftKings | Jeisla Chaves | -395 at 2026-05-29T12:42:18.557774-06:00 | -258 at 2026-06-06T14:12:13.001326-06:00 | 12 |
| Jeisla Chaves vs Yuneisy Duben | DraftKings | Yuneisy Duben | +310 at 2026-05-29T12:42:18.557897-06:00 | +210 at 2026-06-06T14:12:13.001383-06:00 | 12 |
| Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi | DraftKings | Ariane Carnelossi | +220 at 2026-05-29T12:42:18.550674-06:00 | +280 at 2026-06-06T13:42:36.704901-06:00 | 13 |
| Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi | DraftKings | Ketlen Souza | -270 at 2026-05-29T12:42:18.550559-06:00 | -355 at 2026-06-06T13:42:36.704855-06:00 | 13 |