UFC Ufc Freedom 250 Topuria vs Gaethje prediction records
Event date: . 7 recorded matchups.
These records preserve the published predictions after the event. Confidence is a model estimate, not a guarantee or the archive win rate. Results use the recorded grading for each market. Missing picks, odds and grades stay unavailable; they are not fabricated. Odds shown here are historical American-odds snapshots from the public archive. Historical line movement and additional sportsbook views are available in the interactive archive under its access rules.
Prediction and data methodology · Report a sourced correction
| Matchup | Market | Published pick and confidence | Graded result | Recorded American odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje | Moneyline | Ilia Topuria (76.48% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -470 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +360 |
| Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje | Over/under rounds | Under 3.5, 4.5 (79.53% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -575 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +350 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -125 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -105 |
| Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje | Over/under significant strikes | Ilia Topuria: Over 44.5 (59.06% confidence); Justin Gaethje: Under 36.5 (61.63% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 33.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 33.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 42.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 42.5 / under: -115 |
| Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje | Go the distance | No (69.02% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +650 DraftKings / distance / no: -1400 |
| Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje | Method of victory | KO/TKO (62.97% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +450 DraftKings / method / Submission: +1100 DraftKings / method / Decision: +1200 |
| Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane | Moneyline | Ciryl Gane (68.20% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -112 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -108 |
| Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (71.62% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -2500 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +800 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -180 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +140 |
| Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane | Over/under significant strikes | Alex Pereira: Under 48.5 (52.98% confidence); Ciryl Gane: Over 50.5 (56.86% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 58.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 58.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 52.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 52.5 / under: -115 |
| Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane | Go the distance | No (53.58% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +150 DraftKings / distance / no: -200 |
| Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane | Method of victory | KO/TKO (53.70% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +250 DraftKings / method / Decision: +200 DraftKings / method / Submission: +175 |
| Sean O'Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi | Moneyline | Sean O'Malley (55.20% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -425 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +330 |
| Sean O'Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (85.11% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -2500 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +800 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -180 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +140 |
| Sean O'Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi | Over/under significant strikes | Sean O'Malley: Over 66.5 (62.54% confidence); Aiemann Zahabi: Under 48.5 (54.14% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 47.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 47.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 65.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 65.5 / under: -115 |
| Sean O'Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi | Go the distance | Yes (52.95% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: -160 DraftKings / distance / no: +120 |
| Sean O'Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi | Method of victory | Decision (62.57% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +900 DraftKings / method / Decision: +450 DraftKings / method / Submission: +400 |
| Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis | Moneyline | Josh Hokit (60.89% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -500 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +380 |
| Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (76.63% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -350 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +240 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: +130 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -166 |
| Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis | Over/under significant strikes | Josh Hokit: Over 28.5 (60.01% confidence); Derrick Lewis: Under 12.5 (65.78% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 13.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 13.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 29.5 / over: -125 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 29.5 / under: -105 |
| Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis | Go the distance | No (76.68% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +500 DraftKings / distance / no: -900 |
| Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis | Method of victory | KO/TKO (81.73% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +380 DraftKings / method / Submission: +1400 DraftKings / method / Decision: +1200 |
| Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler | Moneyline | Mauricio Ruffy (60.28% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -535 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +400 |
| Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (83.83% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -525 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +330 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -120 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -110 |
| Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler | Over/under significant strikes | Mauricio Ruffy: Over 32.5 (58.06% confidence); Michael Chandler: Under 20.5 (64.92% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 34.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 34.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 22.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 22.5 / under: -115 |
| Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler | Go the distance | No (75.70% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +300 DraftKings / distance / no: -450 |
| Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler | Method of victory | KO/TKO (69.00% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +600 DraftKings / method / Decision: +800 DraftKings / method / Submission: +650 |
| Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus | Moneyline | Bo Nickal (52.80% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -355 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +280 |
| Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (75.73% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +500 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -140 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +110 |
| Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus | Over/under significant strikes | Bo Nickal: Over 29.5 (59.68% confidence); Kyle Daukaus: Under 17.5 (49.26% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 19.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 19.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 30.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 30.5 / under: -115 |
| Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus | Go the distance | No (83.54% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +165 DraftKings / distance / no: -220 |
| Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus | Method of victory | KO/TKO (40.05% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +380 DraftKings / method / Decision: +600 DraftKings / method / Submission: +320 |
| Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia | Moneyline | Diego Lopes (56.75% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -162 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +136 |
| Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (70.75% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -800 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +450 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -175 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +135 |
| Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia | Over/under significant strikes | Diego Lopes: Over 30.5 (52.03% confidence); Steve Garcia: Under 29.5 (50.46% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 34.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 34.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 32.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 32.5 / under: -115 |
| Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia | Go the distance | No (81.73% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +165 DraftKings / distance / no: -220 |
| Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia | Method of victory | KO/TKO (65.23% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +240 DraftKings / method / Decision: +275 DraftKings / method / Submission: +330 |
Recorded public odds movement
First and last captured prices for each labelled outcome in the public snapshot. These are captured observations, not a claim to have the sportsbook's opening or closing price. The interactive archive provides the available intermediate observations.
| Matchup | Sportsbook | Outcome | First capture | Last capture | Captures |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje | DraftKings | Ilia Topuria | -455 at 2026-01-24T22:41:25.551945-07:00 | -470 at 2026-06-14T22:17:16.351765-06:00 | 48 |
| Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje | DraftKings | Justin Gaethje | +350 at 2026-01-24T22:41:25.552018-07:00 | +360 at 2026-06-14T22:17:16.351793-06:00 | 48 |
| Sean O'Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi | DraftKings | Aiemann Zahabi | +275 at 2026-03-07T20:41:28.747859-07:00 | +330 at 2026-06-14T20:51:38.503087-06:00 | 30 |
| Sean O'Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi | DraftKings | Sean O'Malley | -345 at 2026-03-07T20:41:28.747820-07:00 | -425 at 2026-06-14T20:51:38.503064-06:00 | 30 |
| Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis | DraftKings | Derrick Lewis | +205 at 2026-04-12T10:10:53.099708-06:00 | +380 at 2026-06-14T19:20:24.007704-06:00 | 30 |
| Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis | DraftKings | Josh Hokit | -250 at 2026-04-12T10:10:53.099769-06:00 | -500 at 2026-06-14T19:20:24.007676-06:00 | 30 |
| Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler | DraftKings | Mauricio Ruffy | -250 at 2026-03-07T20:41:28.749012-07:00 | -535 at 2026-06-14T17:20:08.082863-06:00 | 33 |
| Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler | DraftKings | Michael Chandler | +205 at 2026-03-07T20:41:28.749051-07:00 | +400 at 2026-06-14T17:20:08.082904-06:00 | 33 |
| Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus | DraftKings | Bo Nickal | -198 at 2026-03-07T20:41:28.750276-07:00 | -355 at 2026-06-14T19:20:23.990613-06:00 | 32 |
| Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus | DraftKings | Kyle Daukaus | +164 at 2026-03-07T20:41:28.750320-07:00 | +280 at 2026-06-14T19:20:23.990645-06:00 | 32 |
| Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia | DraftKings | Diego Lopes | -205 at 2026-03-07T20:41:28.751506-07:00 | -162 at 2026-06-14T18:47:15.798375-06:00 | 26 |
| Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia | DraftKings | Steve Garcia | +170 at 2026-03-07T20:41:28.751543-07:00 | +136 at 2026-06-14T18:47:15.798418-06:00 | 26 |