UFC Fight Night Nurmagomedov vs Song prediction records
Event date: . 13 recorded matchups.
These records preserve the published predictions after the event. Confidence is a model estimate, not a guarantee or the archive win rate. Results use the recorded grading for each market. Missing picks, odds and grades stay unavailable; they are not fabricated. Odds shown here are historical American-odds snapshots from the public archive. Historical line movement and additional sportsbook views are available in the interactive archive under its access rules.
Prediction and data methodology · Report a sourced correction
| Matchup | Market | Published pick and confidence | Graded result | Recorded American odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong | Moneyline | Umar Nurmagomedov (80.03% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -500 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +380 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong | Over/under rounds | Over 3.5, 4.5 (67.86% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / rounds / 4.5 / over: -230 DraftKings / rounds / 4.5 / under: +175 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong | Over/under significant strikes | Umar Nurmagomedov: No pick recorded; Song Yadong: No pick recorded | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong | Go the distance | Yes (66.70% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: -225 DraftKings / distance / no: +165 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong | Method of victory | Decision (66.69% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +380 DraftKings / method / Submission: +350 |
| Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes | Moneyline | Denise Gomes (53.96% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -162 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +136 |
| Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes | Over/under rounds | Over 1.5, 2.5 (73.07% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -298 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +220 |
| Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes | Over/under significant strikes | Yan Xiaonan: Under 55.5 (67.50% confidence); Denise Gomes: Under 55.5 (67.07% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes | Go the distance | Yes (68.79% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: -250 DraftKings / distance / no: +185 |
| Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes | Method of victory | Decision (68.78% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +240 DraftKings / method / Submission: +900 |
| Aoriqileng vs Kai Asakura | Moneyline | Kai Asakura (80.68% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +340 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -440 |
| Aoriqileng vs Kai Asakura | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (56.26% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: +160 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -210 |
| Aoriqileng vs Kai Asakura | Over/under significant strikes | Aoriqileng: Under 79.5 (91.21% confidence); Kai Asakura: Under 57.5 (76.21% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Aoriqileng vs Kai Asakura | Go the distance | No (66.20% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +215 DraftKings / distance / no: -295 |
| Aoriqileng vs Kai Asakura | Method of victory | KO/TKO (57.85% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: -275 DraftKings / method / Submission: +1000 |
| Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji | Moneyline | Sumudaerji (50.62% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +190 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -230 |
| Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (63.61% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -105 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -125 |
| Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji | Over/under significant strikes | Alex Perez: Under 27.5 (58.01% confidence); Sumudaerji: Over 19.5 (57.23% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji | Go the distance | No (56.94% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +130 DraftKings / distance / no: -170 |
| Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji | Method of victory | KO/TKO (40.70% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: -105 DraftKings / method / Submission: +425 |
| Levi Rodrigues Jr. vs Liu Ce | Moneyline | Liu Ce (62.88% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +154 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -185 |
| Levi Rodrigues Jr. vs Liu Ce | Over/under rounds | Under 1.5, 2.5 (56.95% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -360 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +250 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: +160 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -210 |
| Levi Rodrigues Jr. vs Liu Ce | Over/under significant strikes | Levi Rodrigues Jr.: No pick recorded; Liu Ce: No pick recorded | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Levi Rodrigues Jr. vs Liu Ce | Go the distance | No (82.68% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +500 DraftKings / distance / no: -900 |
| Levi Rodrigues Jr. vs Liu Ce | Method of victory | KO/TKO (72.92% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: -700 DraftKings / method / Submission: +750 |
| Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas | Moneyline | Bilal Hasan (84.98% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -650 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +470 |
| Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas | Over/under rounds | Under 1.5, 2.5 (51.30% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -154 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +120 |
| Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas | Over/under significant strikes | Bilal Hasan: No pick recorded; Nilson Rojas: No pick recorded | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas | Go the distance | No (66.86% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +180 DraftKings / distance / no: -245 |
| Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas | Method of victory | KO/TKO (57.19% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: -200 DraftKings / method / Submission: +750 |
| Andre Lima vs Namsrai Batbayar | Moneyline | Andre Lima (71.08% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -245 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +200 |
| Andre Lima vs Namsrai Batbayar | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (60.75% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: +114 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -145 |
| Andre Lima vs Namsrai Batbayar | Over/under significant strikes | Andre Lima: No pick recorded; Namsrai Batbayar: No pick recorded | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Andre Lima vs Namsrai Batbayar | Go the distance | No (63.77% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +165 DraftKings / distance / no: -220 |
| Andre Lima vs Namsrai Batbayar | Method of victory | KO/TKO (39.22% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +110 DraftKings / method / Submission: +250 |
| Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas | Moneyline | Rei Tsuruya (82.24% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -650 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +470 |
| Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (64.17% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: +110 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -140 |
| Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas | Over/under significant strikes | Rei Tsuruya: Over 21.5 (55.09% confidence); Kevin Borjas: Over 16.5 (55.08% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas | Go the distance | No (57.51% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +140 DraftKings / distance / no: -185 |
| Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas | Method of victory | Submission (34.45% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +275 DraftKings / method / Submission: +110 |
| Xiao Long vs Francesco Nuzzi | Moneyline | Xiao Long (62.30% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -180 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +150 |
| Xiao Long vs Francesco Nuzzi | Over/under rounds | Over 1.5, 2.5 (55.75% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -140 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +110 |
| Xiao Long vs Francesco Nuzzi | Over/under significant strikes | Xiao Long: No pick recorded; Francesco Nuzzi: No pick recorded | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Xiao Long vs Francesco Nuzzi | Go the distance | Yes (50.95% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Xiao Long vs Francesco Nuzzi | Method of victory | Decision (50.94% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jack Jenkins vs Sean Woodson | Moneyline | Sean Woodson (51.77% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +124 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -148 |
| Jack Jenkins vs Sean Woodson | Over/under rounds | Over 1.5, 2.5 (62.13% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -188 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +145 |
| Jack Jenkins vs Sean Woodson | Over/under significant strikes | Jack Jenkins: Over 26.5 (59.70% confidence); Sean Woodson: Over 22.5 (67.79% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jack Jenkins vs Sean Woodson | Go the distance | Yes (57.22% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -160 DraftKings / distance / no: +120 |
| Jack Jenkins vs Sean Woodson | Method of victory | Decision (57.21% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +185 DraftKings / method / Submission: +550 |
| Lawrence Lui vs Hector Santiago | Moneyline | Lawrence Lui (70.78% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -305 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +245 |
| Lawrence Lui vs Hector Santiago | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (63.90% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -115 |
| Lawrence Lui vs Hector Santiago | Over/under significant strikes | Lawrence Lui: No pick recorded; Hector Santiago: No pick recorded | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Lawrence Lui vs Hector Santiago | Go the distance | No (55.90% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Lawrence Lui vs Hector Santiago | Method of victory | KO/TKO (35.26% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri | Moneyline | Julia Polastri (68.45% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +205 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -250 |
| Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri | Over/under rounds | Over 1.5, 2.5 (77.08% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -375 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +270 |
| Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri | Over/under significant strikes | Xiong Jingnan: No pick recorded; Julia Polastri: No pick recorded | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri | Go the distance | Yes (73.83% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri | Method of victory | Decision (73.82% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Ding Meng vs Cam Nelson | Moneyline | Ding Meng (55.91% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -148 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +124 |
| Ding Meng vs Cam Nelson | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (61.61% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -120 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -110 |
| Ding Meng vs Cam Nelson | Over/under significant strikes | Ding Meng: No pick recorded; Cam Nelson: No pick recorded | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Ding Meng vs Cam Nelson | Go the distance | No (57.24% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Ding Meng vs Cam Nelson | Method of victory | KO/TKO (40.62% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
Recorded public odds movement
First and last captured prices for each labelled outcome in the public snapshot. These are captured observations, not a claim to have the sportsbook's opening or closing price. The interactive archive provides the available intermediate observations.
| Matchup | Sportsbook | Outcome | First capture | Last capture | Captures |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong | DraftKings | Umar Nurmagomedov | -470 at 2026-07-08T17:42:19.351777-06:00 | -500 at 2026-08-23T01:40:36.522627-06:00 | 8 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong | DraftKings | Yadong Song | +360 at 2026-07-08T17:42:19.354068-06:00 | +380 at 2026-08-23T01:40:36.522701-06:00 | 8 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong | DraftKings | Over 4.5 rounds | -230 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | -230 at 2026-08-24T14:05:56.706274-06:00 | 2 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong | DraftKings | Under 4.5 rounds | +175 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | +175 at 2026-08-24T14:05:56.706567-06:00 | 2 |
| Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes | DraftKings | Denise Gomes | +130 at 2026-08-22T14:42:05.487547-06:00 | +136 at 2026-08-24T13:40:20.465398-06:00 | 13 |
| Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes | DraftKings | Xiaonan Yan | -155 at 2026-08-22T14:42:05.487479-06:00 | -162 at 2026-08-24T13:40:20.465356-06:00 | 13 |
| Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes | DraftKings | Over 2.5 rounds | -298 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | -298 at 2026-08-24T14:05:57.463287-06:00 | 3 |
| Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes | DraftKings | Under 2.5 rounds | +220 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | +220 at 2026-08-24T14:05:57.464375-06:00 | 3 |
| Aoriqileng vs Kai Asakura | DraftKings | Kai Asakura | -410 at 2026-08-22T14:42:05.465238-06:00 | -440 at 2026-08-23T15:11:37.530283-06:00 | 4 |
| Aoriqileng vs Kai Asakura | DraftKings | Qileng Aori | +320 at 2026-08-22T14:42:05.465185-06:00 | +340 at 2026-08-23T15:11:37.530250-06:00 | 4 |
| Aoriqileng vs Kai Asakura | DraftKings | Over 2.5 rounds | +160 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | +160 at 2026-08-24T14:05:57.886328-06:00 | 2 |
| Aoriqileng vs Kai Asakura | DraftKings | Under 2.5 rounds | -210 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | -210 at 2026-08-24T14:05:57.886617-06:00 | 2 |
| Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji | DraftKings | Alex Perez | +185 at 2026-08-22T14:42:05.461573-06:00 | +190 at 2026-08-24T11:40:39.561090-06:00 | 7 |
| Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji | DraftKings | Su Mudaerji | -225 at 2026-08-22T14:42:05.461633-06:00 | -230 at 2026-08-24T11:40:39.561111-06:00 | 7 |
| Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji | DraftKings | Over 2.5 rounds | -105 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | -105 at 2026-08-24T14:05:58.563932-06:00 | 3 |
| Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji | DraftKings | Under 2.5 rounds | -125 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | -125 at 2026-08-24T14:05:58.564503-06:00 | 3 |
| Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas | DraftKings | Bilal Hasan | -650 at 2026-08-24T10:41:13.362009-06:00 | -650 at 2026-08-24T10:41:13.510066-06:00 | 2 |
| Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas | DraftKings | Nilson Rojas | +470 at 2026-08-24T10:41:13.362046-06:00 | +470 at 2026-08-24T10:41:13.510066-06:00 | 2 |
| Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas | DraftKings | Over 1.5 rounds | -154 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | -154 at 2026-08-24T14:05:59.899047-06:00 | 2 |
| Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas | DraftKings | Under 1.5 rounds | +120 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | +120 at 2026-08-24T14:05:59.899343-06:00 | 2 |
| Andre Lima vs Namsrai Batbayar | DraftKings | André Lima | -250 at 2026-08-22T14:42:05.459020-06:00 | -245 at 2026-08-22T21:10:54.251202-06:00 | 3 |
| Andre Lima vs Namsrai Batbayar | DraftKings | Namsrai Batbayar | +205 at 2026-08-22T14:42:05.457798-06:00 | +200 at 2026-08-22T21:10:54.251127-06:00 | 3 |
| Andre Lima vs Namsrai Batbayar | DraftKings | Over 2.5 rounds | +114 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | +114 at 2026-08-24T14:06:00.622292-06:00 | 2 |
| Andre Lima vs Namsrai Batbayar | DraftKings | Under 2.5 rounds | -145 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | -145 at 2026-08-24T14:06:00.622667-06:00 | 2 |
| Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas | DraftKings | Kevin Borjas | +455 at 2026-08-22T14:42:05.454063-06:00 | +470 at 2026-08-23T09:10:46.104609-06:00 | 3 |
| Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas | DraftKings | Rei Tsuruya | -625 at 2026-08-22T14:42:05.453991-06:00 | -650 at 2026-08-23T09:10:46.104581-06:00 | 3 |
| Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas | DraftKings | Over 2.5 rounds | +110 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | +110 at 2026-08-24T14:06:01.943345-06:00 | 3 |
| Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas | DraftKings | Under 2.5 rounds | -140 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | -140 at 2026-08-24T14:06:01.944227-06:00 | 3 |
| Xiao Long vs Francesco Nuzzi | DraftKings | Francesco Nuzzi | +145 at 2026-08-22T14:42:05.434579-06:00 | +150 at 2026-08-23T18:11:21.601248-06:00 | 3 |
| Xiao Long vs Francesco Nuzzi | DraftKings | Long Xiao | -175 at 2026-08-22T14:42:05.434531-06:00 | -180 at 2026-08-23T18:11:21.601225-06:00 | 3 |
| Xiao Long vs Francesco Nuzzi | DraftKings | Over 2.5 rounds | -140 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | -140 at 2026-08-24T14:06:02.337988-06:00 | 2 |
| Xiao Long vs Francesco Nuzzi | DraftKings | Under 2.5 rounds | +110 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | +110 at 2026-08-24T14:06:02.338296-06:00 | 2 |
| Jack Jenkins vs Sean Woodson | DraftKings | Jack Jenkins | +124 at 2026-08-22T14:42:05.438570-06:00 | +124 at 2026-08-24T05:41:08.658007-06:00 | 4 |
| Jack Jenkins vs Sean Woodson | DraftKings | Sean Woodson | -148 at 2026-08-22T14:42:05.438625-06:00 | -148 at 2026-08-24T05:41:08.658055-06:00 | 4 |
| Jack Jenkins vs Sean Woodson | DraftKings | Over 2.5 rounds | -188 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | -188 at 2026-08-24T14:06:03.086605-06:00 | 2 |
| Jack Jenkins vs Sean Woodson | DraftKings | Under 2.5 rounds | +145 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | +145 at 2026-08-24T14:06:03.086971-06:00 | 2 |
| Lawrence Lui vs Hector Santiago | DraftKings | Hector Santiago | +245 at 2026-08-22T14:42:05.431736-06:00 | +245 at 2026-08-22T14:42:19.032383-06:00 | 2 |
| Lawrence Lui vs Hector Santiago | DraftKings | Lawrence Lui | -305 at 2026-08-22T14:42:05.431684-06:00 | -305 at 2026-08-22T14:42:19.032383-06:00 | 2 |
| Lawrence Lui vs Hector Santiago | DraftKings | Over 2.5 rounds | -115 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | -115 at 2026-08-24T14:06:03.832416-06:00 | 2 |
| Lawrence Lui vs Hector Santiago | DraftKings | Under 2.5 rounds | -115 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | -115 at 2026-08-24T14:06:03.832951-06:00 | 2 |
| Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri | DraftKings | Jingnan Xiong | +195 at 2026-08-22T14:42:05.427993-06:00 | +205 at 2026-08-23T12:41:08.305514-06:00 | 6 |
| Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri | DraftKings | Julia Polastri | -238 at 2026-08-22T14:42:05.428049-06:00 | -250 at 2026-08-23T12:41:08.305538-06:00 | 6 |
| Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri | DraftKings | Over 2.5 rounds | -375 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | -375 at 2026-08-24T14:06:04.366040-06:00 | 2 |
| Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri | DraftKings | Under 2.5 rounds | +270 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | +270 at 2026-08-24T14:06:04.366280-06:00 | 2 |
| Ding Meng vs Cam Nelson | DraftKings | Cameron Nelson | +102 at 2026-08-23T09:41:29.698599-06:00 | +124 at 2026-08-24T00:11:07.592254-06:00 | 7 |
| Ding Meng vs Cam Nelson | DraftKings | Meng Ding | -122 at 2026-08-23T09:41:29.697636-06:00 | -148 at 2026-08-24T00:11:07.592199-06:00 | 7 |
| Ding Meng vs Cam Nelson | DraftKings | Over 2.5 rounds | -120 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | -120 at 2026-08-24T14:06:05.085733-06:00 | 2 |
| Ding Meng vs Cam Nelson | DraftKings | Under 2.5 rounds | -110 at 2026-08-24T14:05:54.186276-06:00 | -110 at 2026-08-24T14:06:05.086099-06:00 | 2 |