UFC Fight Night Burnes vs Morales prediction records
Event date: . 12 recorded matchups.
These records preserve the published predictions after the event. Confidence is a model estimate, not a guarantee or the archive win rate. Results use the recorded grading for each market. Missing picks, odds and grades stay unavailable; they are not fabricated. Odds shown here are historical American-odds snapshots from the public archive. Historical line movement and additional sportsbook views are available in the interactive archive under its access rules.
Prediction and data methodology · Report a sourced correction
| Matchup | Market | Published pick and confidence | Graded result | Recorded American odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales | Moneyline | Michael Morales (77.30% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +575 DraftKings / blue: -850 DraftKings / moneyline / red: +360 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -540 |
| Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 4.5 (76.53% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales | Over/under significant strikes | Gilbert Burns: Over 69.5 (52.42% confidence); Michael Morales: Under 48.5 (63.45% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / red: +550 DraftKings / blue: -800 |
| Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales | Go the distance | No (59.68% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +575 DraftKings / blue: -850 |
| Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales | Method of victory | KO/TKO (75.08% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +575 DraftKings / blue: -850 |
| Rodolfo Bellato vs Paul Craig | Moneyline | Rodolfo Bellato (87.23% confidence) | Cancelled | DraftKings / red: -500 DraftKings / blue: +380 DraftKings / moneyline / red: -395 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +310 |
| Rodolfo Bellato vs Paul Craig | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (87.23% confidence) | Cancelled | DraftKings / red: -500 DraftKings / blue: +380 |
| Rodolfo Bellato vs Paul Craig | Over/under significant strikes | Rodolfo Bellato: Over 32.5 (80.40% confidence); Paul Craig: Under 18.5 (77.60% confidence) | Cancelled | DraftKings / red: -520 DraftKings / blue: +390 |
| Rodolfo Bellato vs Paul Craig | Go the distance | No (94.00% confidence) | Cancelled | DraftKings / red: -500 DraftKings / blue: +380 |
| Rodolfo Bellato vs Paul Craig | Method of victory | KO/TKO (65.10% confidence) | Cancelled | DraftKings / red: -500 DraftKings / blue: +380 |
| Sodiq Yusuff vs Mairon Santos | Moneyline | Sodiq Yusuff (51.33% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +114 DraftKings / blue: -135 DraftKings / moneyline / red: +1500 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -4000 |
| Sodiq Yusuff vs Mairon Santos | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (84.05% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Sodiq Yusuff vs Mairon Santos | Over/under significant strikes | Sodiq Yusuff: Over 58.5 (62.10% confidence); Mairon Santos: Under 59.5 (69.30% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / red: -130 DraftKings / blue: +110 |
| Sodiq Yusuff vs Mairon Santos | Go the distance | Yes (75.93% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +114 DraftKings / blue: -135 |
| Sodiq Yusuff vs Mairon Santos | Method of victory | Decision (56.20% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +114 DraftKings / blue: -135 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus vs Nursulton Ruziboev | Moneyline | Nursulton Ruziboev (63.98% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +245 DraftKings / blue: -305 DraftKings / moneyline / red: +575 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -950 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus vs Nursulton Ruziboev | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (89.38% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -110 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -120 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus vs Nursulton Ruziboev | Over/under significant strikes | Dustin Stoltzfus: Over 17.5 (72.20% confidence); Nursulton Ruziboev: Over 21.5 (64.20% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +240 DraftKings / blue: -298 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus vs Nursulton Ruziboev | Go the distance | No (94.63% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +245 DraftKings / blue: -305 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus vs Nursulton Ruziboev | Method of victory | KO/TKO (47.30% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +245 DraftKings / blue: -305 |
| Julian Erosa vs Melquizael Costa | Moneyline | Julian Erosa (55.60% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +145 DraftKings / blue: -175 DraftKings / moneyline / red: +390 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -720 |
| Julian Erosa vs Melquizael Costa | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (90.98% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Julian Erosa vs Melquizael Costa | Over/under significant strikes | Julian Erosa: Under 45.5 (76.70% confidence); Melquizael Costa: Under 42.5 (76.25% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -192 DraftKings / blue: +160 |
| Julian Erosa vs Melquizael Costa | Go the distance | Yes (97.28% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +145 DraftKings / blue: -175 |
| Julian Erosa vs Melquizael Costa | Method of victory | Decision (74.80% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +145 DraftKings / blue: -175 |
| Gabe Green vs Matheus Camilo | Moneyline | Matheus Camilo (89.05% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +190 DraftKings / blue: -230 DraftKings / moneyline / red: +750 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -1450 |
| Gabe Green vs Matheus Camilo | Over/under rounds | Under 2.5 (72.20% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Gabe Green vs Matheus Camilo | Over/under significant strikes | Gabe Green: Under 49.5 (69.17% confidence); Matheus Camilo: Under 41.5 (50.20% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +185 DraftKings / blue: -225 |
| Gabe Green vs Matheus Camilo | Go the distance | No (82.10% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +190 DraftKings / blue: -230 |
| Gabe Green vs Matheus Camilo | Method of victory | KO/TKO (69.30% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +190 DraftKings / blue: -230 |
| Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moisés | Moneyline | Thiago Moisés (83.50% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -125 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +105 |
| Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moisés | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (86.30% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moisés | Over/under significant strikes | Jared Gordon: Under 55.5 (68.70% confidence); Thiago Moisés: Under 41.5 (74.80% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moisés | Go the distance | Yes (85.30% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moisés | Method of victory | Submission (63.80% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Yadier del Valle vs Connor Matthews | Moneyline | Yadier Delvalle (77.15% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -625 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +455 |
| Yadier del Valle vs Connor Matthews | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (65.50% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Yadier del Valle vs Connor Matthews | Over/under significant strikes | Yadier del Valle: Over 59.5 (59.45% confidence); Connor Matthews: Over 42.5 (55.10% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Yadier del Valle vs Connor Matthews | Go the distance | Yes (57.25% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Yadier del Valle vs Connor Matthews | Method of victory | KO/TKO (71.10% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Luana Santos vs Tainara Lisboa | Moneyline | Luana Santos (65.88% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -170 DraftKings / blue: +142 DraftKings / moneyline / red: -1450 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +750 |
| Luana Santos vs Tainara Lisboa | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (93.65% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Luana Santos vs Tainara Lisboa | Over/under significant strikes | Luana Santos: Over 41.5 (87.45% confidence); Tainara Lisboa: Over 30.5 (85.10% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -148 DraftKings / blue: +124 |
| Luana Santos vs Tainara Lisboa | Go the distance | Yes (91.60% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -170 DraftKings / blue: +142 |
| Luana Santos vs Tainara Lisboa | Method of victory | Decision (70.25% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -170 DraftKings / blue: +142 |
| Elise Reed vs Denise Gomes | Moneyline | Denise Gomes (73.50% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +455 DraftKings / blue: -625 DraftKings / moneyline / red: +1800 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -6500 |
| Elise Reed vs Denise Gomes | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (94.18% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Elise Reed vs Denise Gomes | Over/under significant strikes | Elise Reed: Over 40.5 (78.80% confidence); Denise Gomes: Over 60.5 (57.00% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -575 DraftKings / blue: +425 |
| Elise Reed vs Denise Gomes | Go the distance | Yes (96.30% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +455 DraftKings / blue: -625 |
| Elise Reed vs Denise Gomes | Method of victory | Decision (58.65% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +455 DraftKings / blue: -625 |
| HyunSung Park vs Carlos Hernandez | Moneyline | HyunSung Park (53.80% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -192 DraftKings / blue: +160 DraftKings / moneyline / red: -185 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +154 |
| HyunSung Park vs Carlos Hernandez | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (86.35% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| HyunSung Park vs Carlos Hernandez | Over/under significant strikes | HyunSung Park: Under 50.5 (67.43% confidence); Carlos Hernandez: Under 49.5 (66.69% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -155 DraftKings / blue: +130 |
| HyunSung Park vs Carlos Hernandez | Go the distance | Yes (64.40% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -192 DraftKings / blue: +160 |
| HyunSung Park vs Carlos Hernandez | Method of victory | Decision (64.40% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -192 DraftKings / blue: +160 |
| Tecia Pennington vs Luana Pinheiro | Moneyline | Tecia Pennington (72.13% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -250 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +190 |
| Tecia Pennington vs Luana Pinheiro | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 (82.90% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Tecia Pennington vs Luana Pinheiro | Over/under significant strikes | Tecia Pennington: Over 64.5 (61.30% confidence); Luana Pinheiro: Under 42.5 (55.00% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Tecia Pennington vs Luana Pinheiro | Go the distance | Yes (94.80% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Tecia Pennington vs Luana Pinheiro | Method of victory | Decision (69.90% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
Recorded public odds movement
First and last captured prices for each labelled outcome in the public snapshot. These are captured observations, not a claim to have the sportsbook's opening or closing price. The interactive archive provides the available intermediate observations.
| Matchup | Sportsbook | Outcome | First capture | Last capture | Captures |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales | DraftKings | Michael Morales | -625 at 2025-05-08T17:16:21.035404-06:00 | -540 at 2025-05-17T19:12:01.708919-06:00 | 37 |
| Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales | DraftKings | Gilbert Burns | +455 at 2025-05-08T17:16:21.025482-06:00 | +360 at 2025-05-17T19:12:01.708919-06:00 | 29 |
| Rodolfo Bellato vs Paul Craig | DraftKings | Paul Craig | +350 at 2025-05-08T17:16:22.417656-06:00 | +310 at 2025-05-17T16:17:16.570698-06:00 | 21 |
| Rodolfo Bellato vs Paul Craig | DraftKings | Rodolfo Bellato | -455 at 2025-05-08T17:16:22.421561-06:00 | -395 at 2025-05-17T16:17:16.570698-06:00 | 21 |
| Sodiq Yusuff vs Mairon Santos | DraftKings | Mairon Santos | -135 at 2025-05-08T17:21:27.741096-06:00 | -4000 at 2025-05-17T18:41:55.165691-06:00 | 43 |
| Sodiq Yusuff vs Mairon Santos | DraftKings | Sodiq Yusuff | +114 at 2025-05-08T17:21:27.732775-06:00 | +1500 at 2025-05-17T18:41:55.165691-06:00 | 43 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus vs Nursulton Ruziboev | DraftKings | Dustin Stoltzfus | +225 at 2025-05-08T17:21:31.346469-06:00 | +575 at 2025-05-17T18:02:45.922749-06:00 | 48 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus vs Nursulton Ruziboev | DraftKings | Nursultan Ruziboev | -278 at 2025-05-08T17:21:31.341093-06:00 | -950 at 2025-05-17T18:02:45.922749-06:00 | 35 |
| Julian Erosa vs Melquizael Costa | DraftKings | Melquizael Costa | -205 at 2025-05-08T17:21:26.631541-06:00 | -720 at 2025-05-17T17:32:34.581592-06:00 | 48 |
| Julian Erosa vs Melquizael Costa | DraftKings | Julian Erosa | +170 at 2025-05-08T17:21:26.624467-06:00 | +390 at 2025-05-17T17:32:34.581592-06:00 | 37 |
| Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moisés | DraftKings | Jared Gordon | +102 at 2025-05-08T17:21:28.154271-06:00 | -125 at 2025-05-17T15:52:27.962651-06:00 | 48 |
| Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moisés | DraftKings | Thiago Moisés | -122 at 2025-05-08T17:21:28.158231-06:00 | +105 at 2025-05-17T15:52:27.962651-06:00 | 48 |
| Yadier del Valle vs Connor Matthews | DraftKings | Connor Matthews | +350 at 2025-05-12T14:05:36.837013-06:00 | +455 at 2025-05-17T15:52:28.224184-06:00 | 22 |
| Yadier del Valle vs Connor Matthews | DraftKings | Yadier DelValle | -455 at 2025-05-12T14:05:36.841227-06:00 | -625 at 2025-05-17T15:52:28.224184-06:00 | 18 |
| Luana Santos vs Tainara Lisboa | DraftKings | Luana Santos | -105 at 2025-05-08T17:32:04.701969-06:00 | -1450 at 2025-05-17T15:31:59.473121-06:00 | 48 |
| Luana Santos vs Tainara Lisboa | DraftKings | Tainara Lisboa | -115 at 2025-05-08T17:32:04.706830-06:00 | +750 at 2025-05-17T15:31:59.473121-06:00 | 46 |
| Elise Reed vs Denise Gomes | DraftKings | Denise Gomes | -455 at 2025-05-08T17:21:27.241985-06:00 | -6500 at 2025-05-17T15:12:25.922724-06:00 | 23 |
| Elise Reed vs Denise Gomes | DraftKings | Elise Reed | +350 at 2025-05-08T17:21:27.247326-06:00 | +1800 at 2025-05-17T15:12:25.922724-06:00 | 23 |
| HyunSung Park vs Carlos Hernandez | DraftKings | Carlos Hernandez | +160 at 2025-05-08T17:21:29.119512-06:00 | +154 at 2025-05-17T14:32:08.264712-06:00 | 48 |
| HyunSung Park vs Carlos Hernandez | DraftKings | Hyun Sung Park | -192 at 2025-05-08T17:21:29.114316-06:00 | -185 at 2025-05-17T14:32:08.264712-06:00 | 48 |
| Tecia Pennington vs Luana Pinheiro | DraftKings | Luana Pinheiro | +310 at 2025-05-08T17:21:30.750480-06:00 | +190 at 2025-05-17T14:27:56.027064-06:00 | 27 |
| Tecia Pennington vs Luana Pinheiro | DraftKings | Tecia Torres | -395 at 2025-05-08T17:21:30.755510-06:00 | -250 at 2025-05-17T14:27:56.027064-06:00 | 27 |