UFC 317 Topuria vs Oliveira prediction records
Event date: . 11 recorded matchups.
These records preserve the published predictions after the event. Confidence is a model estimate, not a guarantee or the archive win rate. Results use the recorded grading for each market. Missing picks, odds and grades stay unavailable; they are not fabricated. Odds shown here are historical American-odds snapshots from the public archive. Historical line movement and additional sportsbook views are available in the interactive archive under its access rules.
Prediction and data methodology · Report a sourced correction
| Matchup | Market | Published pick and confidence | Graded result | Recorded American odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira | Moneyline | Ilia Topuria (70.80% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -440 DraftKings / blue: +340 DraftKings / moneyline / red: -425 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +330 |
| Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira | Over/under rounds | Under 2.5, Under 3.5, 4.5 (78.35% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -700 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +400 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -145 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +114 |
| Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira | Over/under significant strikes | Ilia Topuria: Under 40.5 (60.81% confidence); Charles Oliveira: Under 30.5 (58.92% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -440 DraftKings / blue: +340 |
| Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira | Go the distance | No (52.35% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -440 DraftKings / blue: +340 |
| Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira | Method of victory | KO/TKO (52.67% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -440 DraftKings / blue: +340 |
| Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France | Moneyline | Alexandre Pantoja (75.10% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -238 DraftKings / blue: +195 DraftKings / moneyline / red: -950 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +575 |
| Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5, Under 4.5 (81.30% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -5000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1000 |
| Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France | Over/under significant strikes | Alexandre Pantoja: Under 72.5 (79.60% confidence); Kai Kara-France: Over 59.5 (54.55% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / red: -238 DraftKings / blue: +195 |
| Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France | Go the distance | No (82.13% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -238 DraftKings / blue: +195 |
| Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France | Method of victory | Submission (42.27% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -238 DraftKings / blue: +195 |
| Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van | Moneyline | Joshua Van (64.48% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -122 DraftKings / blue: +102 DraftKings / moneyline / red: +120 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -154 |
| Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (74.38% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -3500 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +900 |
| Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van | Over/under significant strikes | Brandon Royval: Over 70.5 (72.70% confidence); Joshua Van: Over 90.5 (68.29% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -122 DraftKings / blue: +102 |
| Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van | Go the distance | Yes (69.20% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -122 DraftKings / blue: +102 |
| Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van | Method of victory | Decision (39.47% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -122 DraftKings / blue: +102 |
| Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano | Moneyline | Beneil Dariush (65.43% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -102 DraftKings / blue: -118 DraftKings / moneyline / red: -118 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -102 |
| Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (61.18% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1100 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +550 |
| Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano | Over/under significant strikes | Beneil Dariush: Over 38.5 (52.20% confidence); Renato Moicano: Under 42.5 (54.40% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -102 DraftKings / blue: -118 |
| Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano | Go the distance | Yes (81.50% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -102 DraftKings / blue: -118 |
| Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano | Method of victory | Decision (46.08% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -102 DraftKings / blue: -118 |
| Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima | Moneyline | Payton Talbott (57.38% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +145 DraftKings / blue: -175 DraftKings / moneyline / red: +136 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -162 |
| Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5 (80.55% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -3500 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +900 |
| Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima | Over/under significant strikes | Payton Talbott: Under 54.5 (69.60% confidence); Felipe Lima: Under 50.5 (58.42% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / red: +145 DraftKings / blue: -175 |
| Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima | Go the distance | Yes (85.10% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +145 DraftKings / blue: -175 |
| Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima | Method of victory | Decision (47.31% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +145 DraftKings / blue: -175 |
| Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues | Moneyline | Jack Hermansson (66.60% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +185 DraftKings / blue: -225 DraftKings / moneyline / red: +180 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -218 |
| Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (80.85% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1600 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +650 |
| Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues | Over/under significant strikes | Jack Hermansson: Over 54.5 (56.95% confidence); Gregory Rodrigues: Over 48.5 (55.19% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +185 DraftKings / blue: -225 |
| Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues | Go the distance | Yes (78.98% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +185 DraftKings / blue: -225 |
| Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues | Method of victory | Decision (54.25% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +185 DraftKings / blue: -225 |
| Hyder Amil vs Jose Miguel Delgado | Moneyline | Hyder Amil (53.06% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +120 DraftKings / blue: -142 DraftKings / moneyline / red: -110 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -120 |
| Hyder Amil vs Jose Miguel Delgado | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (52.80% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1100 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +550 |
| Hyder Amil vs Jose Miguel Delgado | Over/under significant strikes | Hyder Amil: Over 46.5 (67.77% confidence); Jose Miguel Delgado: Over 48.5 (53.70% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +120 DraftKings / blue: -142 |
| Hyder Amil vs Jose Miguel Delgado | Go the distance | No (52.50% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +120 DraftKings / blue: -142 |
| Hyder Amil vs Jose Miguel Delgado | Method of victory | KO/TKO (51.55% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +120 DraftKings / blue: -142 |
| Viviane Araújo vs Tracy Cortez | Moneyline | Tracy Cortez (90.73% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +340 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -500 |
| Viviane Araújo vs Tracy Cortez | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 (77.73% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -20000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1200 |
| Viviane Araújo vs Tracy Cortez | Over/under significant strikes | Viviane Araújo: Under 47.5 (51.45% confidence); Tracy Cortez: Over 59.5 (61.05% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Viviane Araújo vs Tracy Cortez | Go the distance | Yes (72.08% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Viviane Araújo vs Tracy Cortez | Method of victory | Decision (72.50% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Terrance McKinney vs Viacheslav Borshchev | Moneyline | Viacheslav Borshchev (54.73% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +142 DraftKings / blue: -170 DraftKings / moneyline / red: -170 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +142 |
| Terrance McKinney vs Viacheslav Borshchev | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (74.25% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Terrance McKinney vs Viacheslav Borshchev | Over/under significant strikes | Terrance McKinney: Under 25.5 (65.20% confidence); Viacheslav Borshchev: Over 17.5 (74.33% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / red: +142 DraftKings / blue: -170 |
| Terrance McKinney vs Viacheslav Borshchev | Go the distance | No (81.40% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: +142 DraftKings / blue: -170 |
| Terrance McKinney vs Viacheslav Borshchev | Method of victory | KO/TKO (40.80% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: +142 DraftKings / blue: -170 |
| Niko Price vs Jacobe Smith | Moneyline | Jacobe Smith (86.28% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -2100 DraftKings / blue: +1100 DraftKings / moneyline / red: +1200 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -2400 |
| Niko Price vs Jacobe Smith | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5 (64.60% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Niko Price vs Jacobe Smith | Over/under significant strikes | Niko Price: Under 17.5 (67.80% confidence); Jacobe Smith: Under 25.5 (58.38% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -2100 DraftKings / blue: +1100 |
| Niko Price vs Jacobe Smith | Go the distance | No (62.50% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -2100 DraftKings / blue: +1100 |
| Niko Price vs Jacobe Smith | Method of victory | KO/TKO (52.12% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -2100 DraftKings / blue: +1100 |
| Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines | Moneyline | Jhonata Diniz (71.60% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -455 DraftKings / blue: +350 DraftKings / moneyline / red: -535 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +400 |
| Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (65.20% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines | Over/under significant strikes | Jhonata Diniz: Under 28.5 (52.50% confidence); Alvin Hines: Under 18.5 (58.95% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / red: -455 DraftKings / blue: +350 |
| Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines | Go the distance | No (57.20% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -455 DraftKings / blue: +350 |
| Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines | Method of victory | KO/TKO (45.20% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / red: -455 DraftKings / blue: +350 |
Recorded public odds movement
First and last captured prices for each labelled outcome in the public snapshot. These are captured observations, not a claim to have the sportsbook's opening or closing price. The interactive archive provides the available intermediate observations.
| Matchup | Sportsbook | Outcome | First capture | Last capture | Captures |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira | DraftKings | Charles Oliveira | +300 at 2025-05-14T07:01:47.940567-06:00 | +330 at 2025-06-28T22:42:04.239293-06:00 | 35 |
| Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira | DraftKings | Ilia Topuria | -380 at 2025-05-14T07:01:47.955237-06:00 | -425 at 2025-06-28T22:42:04.239293-06:00 | 35 |
| Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France | DraftKings | Alexandre Pantoja | -245 at 2025-05-14T12:20:30.953255-06:00 | -950 at 2025-06-28T22:12:27.003239-06:00 | 28 |
| Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France | DraftKings | Kai Kara-France | +200 at 2025-05-14T12:20:30.962204-06:00 | +575 at 2025-06-28T22:12:27.003239-06:00 | 28 |
| Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van | DraftKings | Brandon Royval | +105 at 2025-06-09T17:18:24.223255-06:00 | +120 at 2025-06-28T21:42:33.401578-06:00 | 29 |
| Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van | DraftKings | Josh Van | -125 at 2025-06-09T17:18:24.231795-06:00 | -154 at 2025-06-28T21:42:33.401578-06:00 | 29 |
| Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano | DraftKings | Beneil Dariush | +150 at 2025-05-14T17:10:38.335560-06:00 | -118 at 2025-06-28T15:43:02.203734-06:00 | 26 |
| Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano | DraftKings | Renato Moicano | -180 at 2025-05-14T17:10:38.345799-06:00 | -102 at 2025-06-28T15:43:02.203734-06:00 | 26 |
| Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima | DraftKings | Felipe Lima | -175 at 2025-06-20T16:43:55.743788-06:00 | -162 at 2025-06-28T16:43:11.262465-06:00 | 18 |
| Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima | DraftKings | Payton Talbott | +145 at 2025-06-20T16:43:55.595351-06:00 | +136 at 2025-06-28T16:43:11.262465-06:00 | 18 |
| Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues | DraftKings | Gregory Rodrigues | -198 at 2025-05-14T17:05:36.123762-06:00 | -218 at 2025-06-28T17:42:09.950784-06:00 | 25 |
| Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues | DraftKings | Jack Hermansson | +164 at 2025-05-14T17:05:36.119344-06:00 | +180 at 2025-06-28T17:42:09.950784-06:00 | 25 |
| Hyder Amil vs Jose Miguel Delgado | DraftKings | Hyder Amil | +130 at 2025-06-21T23:10:05.587872-06:00 | -110 at 2025-06-28T19:13:20.384987-06:00 | 19 |
| Hyder Amil vs Jose Miguel Delgado | DraftKings | Jose Delgado | -155 at 2025-06-21T23:10:05.594504-06:00 | -120 at 2025-06-28T19:13:20.384987-06:00 | 19 |
| Viviane Araújo vs Tracy Cortez | DraftKings | Tracy Cortez | -185 at 2025-05-14T17:05:36.997673-06:00 | -500 at 2025-06-28T18:43:09.874278-06:00 | 48 |
| Viviane Araújo vs Tracy Cortez | DraftKings | Viviane Araujo | +154 at 2025-05-14T17:05:36.991287-06:00 | +340 at 2025-06-28T18:43:09.874278-06:00 | 23 |
| Terrance McKinney vs Viacheslav Borshchev | DraftKings | Terrance McKinney | -185 at 2025-06-21T23:10:05.994485-06:00 | -170 at 2025-06-28T18:12:34.362696-06:00 | 17 |
| Terrance McKinney vs Viacheslav Borshchev | DraftKings | Viecheslav Borshchev | +154 at 2025-06-21T23:10:05.997542-06:00 | +142 at 2025-06-28T18:12:34.362696-06:00 | 17 |
| Niko Price vs Jacobe Smith | DraftKings | Jacobe Smith | -1600 at 2025-06-21T23:10:07.307710-06:00 | -2400 at 2025-06-28T07:16:08.825805-06:00 | 6 |
| Niko Price vs Jacobe Smith | DraftKings | Niko Price | +900 at 2025-06-21T23:10:07.304771-06:00 | +1200 at 2025-06-28T07:16:08.825805-06:00 | 6 |
| Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines | DraftKings | Alvin Hines | +195 at 2025-06-21T23:10:06.468117-06:00 | +400 at 2025-06-28T16:43:07.455800-06:00 | 12 |
| Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines | DraftKings | Jhonata Diniz | -238 at 2025-06-21T23:10:06.464946-06:00 | -535 at 2025-06-28T16:43:07.455800-06:00 | 12 |