UFC 323 Dvalishvili vs Yan prediction records
Event date: . 14 recorded matchups.
These records preserve the published predictions after the event. Confidence is a model estimate, not a guarantee or the archive win rate. Results use the recorded grading for each market. Missing picks, odds and grades stay unavailable; they are not fabricated. Odds shown here are historical American-odds snapshots from the public archive. Historical line movement and additional sportsbook views are available in the interactive archive under its access rules.
Prediction and data methodology · Report a sourced correction
| Matchup | Market | Published pick and confidence | Graded result | Recorded American odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan | Moneyline | Merab Dvalishvili (54.80% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -395 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +310 |
| Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 4.5 (79.71% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan | Over/under significant strikes | Merab Dvalishvili: Over 109.5 (59.74% confidence); Petr Yan: Over 71.5 (64.01 confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan | Go the distance | No (87.22% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan | Method of victory | Submission (44.35% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van | Moneyline | Alexandre Pantoja (53.61% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -205 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +170 |
| Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 3.5, 4.5 (75.15% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van | Over/under significant strikes | Alexandre Pantoja: Under 88.5 (84.22% confidence); Joshua Van: Under 71.5 (73.28% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van | Go the distance | No (74.78% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van | Method of victory | Submission (38.50% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Brandon Moreno vs Tatsuro Taira | Moneyline | Brandon Moreno (55.28% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +100 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -120 |
| Brandon Moreno vs Tatsuro Taira | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (72.32% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Brandon Moreno vs Tatsuro Taira | Over/under significant strikes | Brandon Moreno: Over 51.5 (59.86% confidence); Tatsuro Taira: Over 39.5 (70.97% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Brandon Moreno vs Tatsuro Taira | Go the distance | Yes (85.80% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Brandon Moreno vs Tatsuro Taira | Method of victory | Decision (45.45% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott | Moneyline | Payton Talbott (81.80% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +210 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -258 |
| Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (83.93% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott | Over/under significant strikes | Henry Cejudo: Over 58.5 (56.21% confidence); Payton Talbott: Over 41.5 (65.59% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott | Go the distance | Yes (83.28% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott | Method of victory | Decision (41.62% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jan Błachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov | Moneyline | Bogdan Guskov (71.65% confidence) | Draw | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +105 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -125 |
| Jan Błachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (80.41% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jan Błachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov | Over/under significant strikes | Jan Błachowicz: Under 33.5 (78.44% confidence); Bogdan Guskov: Over 28.5 (53.87% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jan Błachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov | Go the distance | No (83.10% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Jan Błachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov | Method of victory | KO/TKO (44.53% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Grant Dawson vs Manuel Torres | Moneyline | Grant Dawson (61.78% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -270 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +220 |
| Grant Dawson vs Manuel Torres | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (95.83% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Grant Dawson vs Manuel Torres | Over/under significant strikes | Grant Dawson: Over 26.5 (61.03% confidence); Manuel Torres: Over 18.5 (73.12% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Grant Dawson vs Manuel Torres | Go the distance | Yes (80.23% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Grant Dawson vs Manuel Torres | Method of victory | Decision (38.77% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Terrance McKinney vs Chris Duncan | Moneyline | Chris Duncan (62.35% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -112 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -108 |
| Terrance McKinney vs Chris Duncan | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (89.44% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Terrance McKinney vs Chris Duncan | Over/under significant strikes | Terrance McKinney: Under 17.5 (57.22% confidence); Chris Duncan: Over 15.5 (64.69% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Terrance McKinney vs Chris Duncan | Go the distance | No (77.53% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Terrance McKinney vs Chris Duncan | Method of victory | KO/TKO (48.35% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Maycee Barber vs Karine Silva | Moneyline | Maycee Barber (52.56% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -205 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +170 |
| Maycee Barber vs Karine Silva | Over/under rounds | Over 1.5, 2.5 (74.53% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Maycee Barber vs Karine Silva | Over/under significant strikes | Maycee Barber: Over 53.5 (80.13% confidence); Karine Silva: Over 30.5 (79.36% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Maycee Barber vs Karine Silva | Go the distance | Yes (87.10% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Maycee Barber vs Karine Silva | Method of victory | Decision (40.77% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Nazim Sadykhov vs Farès Ziam | Moneyline | Farès Ziam (50.28% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +170 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -205 |
| Nazim Sadykhov vs Farès Ziam | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (77.41% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Nazim Sadykhov vs Farès Ziam | Over/under significant strikes | Nazim Sadykhov: Under 52.5 (67.24% confidence); Farès Ziam: Under 42.5 (51.94% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Nazim Sadykhov vs Farès Ziam | Go the distance | Yes (82.73% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Nazim Sadykhov vs Farès Ziam | Method of victory | Decision (45.23% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Marvin Vettori vs Brunno Ferreira | Moneyline | Marvin Vettori (55.88% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -130 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +110 |
| Marvin Vettori vs Brunno Ferreira | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (94.56% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Marvin Vettori vs Brunno Ferreira | Over/under significant strikes | Marvin Vettori: Over 51.5 (69.06% confidence); Brunno Ferreira: Under 39.5 (72.40% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Marvin Vettori vs Brunno Ferreira | Go the distance | Yes (81.60% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Marvin Vettori vs Brunno Ferreira | Method of victory | Decision (43.80% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Edson Barboza vs Jalin Turner | Moneyline | Jalin Turner (56.33% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +380 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -500 |
| Edson Barboza vs Jalin Turner | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (86.16% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Edson Barboza vs Jalin Turner | Over/under significant strikes | Edson Barboza: Under 38.5 (75.40% confidence); Jalin Turner: Under 29.5 (70.92% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Edson Barboza vs Jalin Turner | Go the distance | No (89.47% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Edson Barboza vs Jalin Turner | Method of victory | KO/TKO (48.60% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Iwo Baraniewski vs Ibo Aslan | Moneyline | Ibo Aslan (65.24% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -205 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +170 |
| Iwo Baraniewski vs Ibo Aslan | Over/under rounds | Under 1.5, 2.5 (76.21% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Iwo Baraniewski vs Ibo Aslan | Over/under significant strikes | Iwo Baraniewski: Under 29.5 (51.26% confidence); Ibo Aslan: Under 27.5 (60.82% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Iwo Baraniewski vs Ibo Aslan | Go the distance | No (84.10% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Iwo Baraniewski vs Ibo Aslan | Method of victory | KO/TKO (60.02% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Antonio Trocoli | Moneyline | Mansur Abdul-Malik (68.38% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -1450 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +750 |
| Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Antonio Trocoli | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (89.58% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Antonio Trocoli | Over/under significant strikes | Mansur Abdul-Malik: Over 19.5 (52.69% confidence); Antonio Trocoli: Under 17.5 (63.08% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Antonio Trocoli | Go the distance | No (79.90% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Antonio Trocoli | Method of victory | KO/TKO (35.70% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Muhammad Naimov vs Mairon Santos | Moneyline | Muhammad Naimov (58.28% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +195 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -238 |
| Muhammad Naimov vs Mairon Santos | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (75.34% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Muhammad Naimov vs Mairon Santos | Over/under significant strikes | Muhammad Naimov: Over 24.5 (55.62% confidence); Mairon Santos: Over 26.5 (69.16% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Muhammad Naimov vs Mairon Santos | Go the distance | No (69.97% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Muhammad Naimov vs Mairon Santos | Method of victory | KO/TKO (50.10% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
Recorded public odds movement
First and last captured prices for each labelled outcome in the public snapshot. These are captured observations, not a claim to have the sportsbook's opening or closing price. The interactive archive provides the available intermediate observations.
| Matchup | Sportsbook | Outcome | First capture | Last capture | Captures |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan | DraftKings | Merab Dvalishvili | -298 at 2025-10-13T15:10:51.996204-06:00 | -395 at 2025-12-06T22:12:12.264770-07:00 | 25 |
| Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan | DraftKings | Petr Yan | +240 at 2025-10-13T15:10:51.996248-06:00 | +310 at 2025-12-06T22:12:12.264808-07:00 | 25 |
| Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van | DraftKings | Alexandre Pantoja | -218 at 2025-10-13T13:42:36.245248-06:00 | -205 at 2025-12-06T21:42:45.582107-07:00 | 37 |
| Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van | DraftKings | Josh Van | +180 at 2025-10-13T13:42:36.245372-06:00 | +170 at 2025-12-06T21:42:45.582132-07:00 | 37 |
| Brandon Moreno vs Tatsuro Taira | DraftKings | Brandon Moreno | -110 at 2025-11-22T08:13:13.474439-07:00 | +100 at 2025-12-06T14:13:09.187107-07:00 | 30 |
| Brandon Moreno vs Tatsuro Taira | DraftKings | Tatsuro Taira | -110 at 2025-11-22T08:13:13.474516-07:00 | -120 at 2025-12-06T14:13:09.187152-07:00 | 30 |
| Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott | DraftKings | Henry Cejudo | +190 at 2025-11-22T08:13:13.457005-07:00 | +210 at 2025-12-06T20:42:18.354479-07:00 | 16 |
| Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott | DraftKings | Payton Talbott | -230 at 2025-11-22T08:13:13.457075-07:00 | -258 at 2025-12-06T20:42:18.354551-07:00 | 16 |
| Jan Błachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov | DraftKings | Bogdan Guskov | -118 at 2025-11-22T08:13:13.439000-07:00 | -125 at 2025-12-06T20:12:41.048939-07:00 | 30 |
| Jan Błachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov | DraftKings | Jan Blachowicz | -102 at 2025-11-22T08:13:13.438924-07:00 | +105 at 2025-12-06T20:12:41.048893-07:00 | 30 |
| Grant Dawson vs Manuel Torres | DraftKings | Grant Dawson | -205 at 2025-11-22T08:13:13.425472-07:00 | -270 at 2025-12-06T10:42:45.714010-07:00 | 13 |
| Grant Dawson vs Manuel Torres | DraftKings | Manuel Torres | +170 at 2025-11-22T08:13:13.425542-07:00 | +220 at 2025-12-06T10:42:45.714049-07:00 | 13 |
| Terrance McKinney vs Chris Duncan | DraftKings | Chris Duncan | -198 at 2025-11-22T08:13:13.415065-07:00 | -108 at 2025-12-06T14:13:09.094374-07:00 | 25 |
| Terrance McKinney vs Chris Duncan | DraftKings | Terrance McKinney | +164 at 2025-11-22T08:13:13.414968-07:00 | -112 at 2025-12-06T14:13:09.094336-07:00 | 25 |
| Maycee Barber vs Karine Silva | DraftKings | Karine Silva | +142 at 2025-11-22T08:13:13.386857-07:00 | +170 at 2025-12-06T05:12:24.981255-07:00 | 16 |
| Maycee Barber vs Karine Silva | DraftKings | Maycee Barber | -170 at 2025-11-22T08:13:13.386797-07:00 | -205 at 2025-12-06T05:12:24.981233-07:00 | 16 |
| Nazim Sadykhov vs Farès Ziam | DraftKings | Fares Ziam | -180 at 2025-11-22T08:13:13.371895-07:00 | -205 at 2025-12-06T15:12:12.491550-07:00 | 33 |
| Nazim Sadykhov vs Farès Ziam | DraftKings | Nazim Sadykhov | +150 at 2025-11-22T08:13:13.371822-07:00 | +170 at 2025-12-06T15:12:12.491510-07:00 | 33 |
| Marvin Vettori vs Brunno Ferreira | DraftKings | Brunno Ferreira | -110 at 2025-11-22T08:13:13.362715-07:00 | +110 at 2025-12-06T16:44:00.815793-07:00 | 37 |
| Marvin Vettori vs Brunno Ferreira | DraftKings | Marvin Vettori | -110 at 2025-11-22T08:13:13.362636-07:00 | -130 at 2025-12-06T16:44:00.815723-07:00 | 37 |
| Edson Barboza vs Jalin Turner | DraftKings | Edson Barboza | +185 at 2025-11-22T08:13:13.349940-07:00 | +380 at 2025-12-06T17:13:50.927359-07:00 | 29 |
| Edson Barboza vs Jalin Turner | DraftKings | Jalin Turner | -225 at 2025-11-22T08:13:13.350001-07:00 | -500 at 2025-12-06T17:13:50.927439-07:00 | 29 |
| Iwo Baraniewski vs Ibo Aslan | DraftKings | Ibo Aslan | +130 at 2025-11-22T08:13:13.322015-07:00 | +170 at 2025-12-06T16:44:00.805849-07:00 | 16 |
| Iwo Baraniewski vs Ibo Aslan | DraftKings | Iwo Baraniewski | -155 at 2025-11-22T08:13:13.321946-07:00 | -205 at 2025-12-06T16:44:00.805816-07:00 | 16 |
| Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Antonio Trocoli | DraftKings | Antonio Trocoli | +575 at 2025-11-23T17:10:47.294649-07:00 | +750 at 2025-12-05T13:50:13.854585-07:00 | 9 |
| Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Antonio Trocoli | DraftKings | Mansur Abdul-Malik | -950 at 2025-11-23T17:10:47.294568-07:00 | -1450 at 2025-12-05T13:50:13.854551-07:00 | 9 |
| Muhammad Naimov vs Mairon Santos | DraftKings | Mairon Santos | -180 at 2025-11-22T08:13:13.309978-07:00 | -238 at 2025-12-06T07:12:38.777659-07:00 | 28 |
| Muhammad Naimov vs Mairon Santos | DraftKings | Muhammadjon Naimov | +150 at 2025-11-22T08:13:13.309898-07:00 | +195 at 2025-12-06T07:12:38.777581-07:00 | 28 |