UFC 326 Holloway vs Oliveira prediction records
Event date: . 13 recorded matchups.
These records preserve the published predictions after the event. Confidence is a model estimate, not a guarantee or the archive win rate. Results use the recorded grading for each market. Missing picks, odds and grades stay unavailable; they are not fabricated. Odds shown here are historical American-odds snapshots from the public archive. Historical line movement and additional sportsbook views are available in the interactive archive under its access rules.
Prediction and data methodology · Report a sourced correction
| Matchup | Market | Published pick and confidence | Graded result | Recorded American odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira | Moneyline | Max Holloway (49.70% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -215 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +165 |
| Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira | Over/under rounds | Over 1.5, Under 4.5 (67.97% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -2000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +750 DraftKings / rounds / 3.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / rounds / 3.5 / under: -115 |
| Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira | Over/under significant strikes | Max Holloway: Under 78.5 (71.42% confidence); Charles Oliveira: Over 88.5 (78.36% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 76.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 76.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 49.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 49.5 / under: -115 |
| Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira | Go the distance | No (67.55% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +175 DraftKings / distance / no: -235 |
| Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira | Method of victory | KO/TKO (51.23% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +225 DraftKings / method / Decision: +750 DraftKings / method / Submission: +240 |
| Caio Borralho vs Reinier de Ridder | Moneyline | Caio Borralho (65.17% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -238 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +195 |
| Caio Borralho vs Reinier de Ridder | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (84.43% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -2500 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +800 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -180 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +140 |
| Caio Borralho vs Reinier de Ridder | Over/under significant strikes | Caio Borralho: Under 74.5 (66.91% confidence); Reinier de Ridder: Over 83.5 (80.27% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 43.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 43.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 29.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 29.5 / under: -115 |
| Caio Borralho vs Reinier de Ridder | Go the distance | Yes (61.20% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -150 DraftKings / distance / no: +110 |
| Caio Borralho vs Reinier de Ridder | Method of victory | Decision (58.07% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +500 DraftKings / method / Decision: +320 DraftKings / method / Submission: +245 |
| Rob Font vs Raul Rosas Jr. | Moneyline | Rob Font (65.98% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +250 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -310 |
| Rob Font vs Raul Rosas Jr. | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (85.39% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -8000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1100 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -238 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +180 |
| Rob Font vs Raul Rosas Jr. | Over/under significant strikes | Rob Font: Under 34.5 (74.18% confidence); Raul Rosas Jr.: Over 32.5 (69.84% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 27.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 27.5 / under: -115 |
| Rob Font vs Raul Rosas Jr. | Go the distance | Yes (59.43% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -225 DraftKings / distance / no: +165 |
| Rob Font vs Raul Rosas Jr. | Method of victory | Decision (46.68% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +300 DraftKings / method / Decision: -150 DraftKings / method / Submission: -250 |
| Drew Dober vs Michael Johnson | Moneyline | Drew Dober (54.63% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -218 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +180 |
| Drew Dober vs Michael Johnson | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (80.21% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1600 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +650 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -230 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +175 |
| Drew Dober vs Michael Johnson | Over/under significant strikes | Drew Dober: Over 24.5 (62.57% confidence); Michael Johnson: Over 30.5 (64.11% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 41.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 41.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 47.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 47.5 / under: -115 |
| Drew Dober vs Michael Johnson | Go the distance | Yes (65.65% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +120 DraftKings / distance / no: -160 |
| Drew Dober vs Michael Johnson | Method of victory | Decision (51.84% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +260 DraftKings / method / Decision: +185 DraftKings / method / Submission: +215 |
| Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira | Moneyline | Brunno Ferreira (70.35% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -162 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +136 |
| Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (84.82% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -700 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +400 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -140 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +110 |
| Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira | Over/under significant strikes | Gregory Rodrigues: Over 29.5 (59.48% confidence); Brunno Ferreira: Over 24.5 (57.63% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / sig_strikes / 29.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 29.5 / under: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 35.5 / over: -115 DraftKings / sig_strikes / 35.5 / under: -115 |
| Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira | Go the distance | No (84.08% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +275 DraftKings / distance / no: -400 |
| Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira | Method of victory | KO/TKO (63.77% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: -105 DraftKings / method / Decision: +275 DraftKings / method / Submission: +200 |
| Cody Garbrandt vs Xiao Long | Moneyline | Cody Garbrandt (53.35% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +145 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -175 |
| Cody Garbrandt vs Xiao Long | Over/under rounds | Over 1.5, 2.5 (76.29% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -2500 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +800 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -195 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +150 |
| Cody Garbrandt vs Xiao Long | Over/under significant strikes | Cody Garbrandt: Under 40.5 (72.25% confidence); Xiao Long: Over 53.5 (76.94% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Cody Garbrandt vs Xiao Long | Go the distance | Yes (64.27% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -150 DraftKings / distance / no: +110 |
| Cody Garbrandt vs Xiao Long | Method of victory | Decision (52.77% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +275 DraftKings / method / Decision: +110 DraftKings / method / Submission: -110 |
| Donte Johnson vs Cody Brundage | Moneyline | Donte Johnson (65.78% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -750 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +525 |
| Donte Johnson vs Cody Brundage | Over/under rounds | Under 1.5, 2.5 (72.98% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -350 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +240 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: +110 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -140 |
| Donte Johnson vs Cody Brundage | Over/under significant strikes | Donte Johnson: Over 42.5 (84.37% confidence); Cody Brundage: Under 42.5 (67.52% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Donte Johnson vs Cody Brundage | Go the distance | No (71.80% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +450 DraftKings / distance / no: -750 |
| Donte Johnson vs Cody Brundage | Method of victory | KO/TKO (54.99% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +800 DraftKings / method / Submission: +900 DraftKings / method / Decision: +1200 |
| Ricky Turcios vs Alberto Montes | Moneyline | Alberto Montes (53.15% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +160 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -192 |
| Ricky Turcios vs Alberto Montes | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, 1.5 (88.51% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -2000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +750 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -175 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +135 |
| Ricky Turcios vs Alberto Montes | Over/under significant strikes | Ricky Turcios: Under 30.5 (60.44% confidence); Alberto Montes: Over 44.5 (61.08% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Ricky Turcios vs Alberto Montes | Go the distance | Yes (68.51% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: -125 DraftKings / distance / no: -105 |
| Ricky Turcios vs Alberto Montes | Method of victory | Decision (53.57% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +500 DraftKings / method / Decision: +225 DraftKings / method / Submission: +180 |
| Cody Durden vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | Moneyline | Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (52.60% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +170 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -205 |
| Cody Durden vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (84.86% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1000 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +500 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: +100 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -130 |
| Cody Durden vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | Over/under significant strikes | Cody Durden: Over 33.5 (73.69% confidence); Nyamjargal Tumendemberel: Under 47.5 (68.75% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Cody Durden vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | Go the distance | No (61.58% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +150 DraftKings / distance / no: -200 |
| Cody Durden vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | Method of victory | Submission (43.84% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +120 DraftKings / method / Decision: +215 DraftKings / method / Submission: +130 |
| Sumudaerji vs Jesus Aguilar | Moneyline | Sumudaerji (50.88% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -166 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +140 |
| Sumudaerji vs Jesus Aguilar | Over/under rounds | Over 1.5, 2.5 (93.94% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -3500 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +900 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -160 DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +124 |
| Sumudaerji vs Jesus Aguilar | Over/under significant strikes | Sumudaerji: Over 43.5 (79.22% confidence); Jesus Aguilar: Over 36.5 (65.83% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Sumudaerji vs Jesus Aguilar | Go the distance | Yes (54.30% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -160 DraftKings / distance / no: +120 |
| Sumudaerji vs Jesus Aguilar | Method of victory | Decision (72.80% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +350 DraftKings / method / Decision: +330 DraftKings / method / Submission: +175 |
| Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay | Moneyline | Rafael Tobias (60.86% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -170 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +142 |
| Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (54.16% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -575 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +350 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -140 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +110 |
| Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay | Over/under significant strikes | Rafael Tobias: Over 58.5 (55.63% confidence); Diyar Nurgozhay: Under 75.5 (63.27% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay | Go the distance | No (67.06% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +300 DraftKings / distance / no: -450 |
| Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay | Method of victory | Submission (53.49% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +215 DraftKings / method / Decision: +450 DraftKings / method / Submission: +400 |
| JeongYeong Lee vs Gaston Bolanos | Moneyline | Jeong Yeong Lee (66.98% confidence) | Cancelled | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -340 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +270 |
| JeongYeong Lee vs Gaston Bolanos | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (80.91% confidence) | Cancelled | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| JeongYeong Lee vs Gaston Bolanos | Over/under significant strikes | JeongYeong Lee: Under 29.5 (64.58% confidence); Gaston Bolanos: Over 34.5 (65.53% confidence) | Cancelled | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| JeongYeong Lee vs Gaston Bolanos | Go the distance | No (76.41% confidence) | Cancelled | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| JeongYeong Lee vs Gaston Bolanos | Method of victory | Submission (54.28% confidence) | Cancelled | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Luke Fernandez vs Rodolfo Bellato | Moneyline | Luke Fernandez (58.18% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -225 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +185 |
| Luke Fernandez vs Rodolfo Bellato | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (96.70% confidence) | Not graded | DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -700 DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +400 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -140 DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +110 |
| Luke Fernandez vs Rodolfo Bellato | Over/under significant strikes | Luke Fernandez: Under 33.5 (70.33% confidence); Rodolfo Bellato: Over 27.5 (74.61% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Luke Fernandez vs Rodolfo Bellato | Go the distance | No (50.25% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +215 DraftKings / distance / no: -295 |
| Luke Fernandez vs Rodolfo Bellato | Method of victory | KO/TKO (52.11% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +300 DraftKings / method / Decision: +425 DraftKings / method / Submission: +320 |
Recorded public odds movement
First and last captured prices for each labelled outcome in the public snapshot. These are captured observations, not a claim to have the sportsbook's opening or closing price. The interactive archive provides the available intermediate observations.
| Matchup | Sportsbook | Outcome | First capture | Last capture | Captures |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira | DraftKings | Charles Oliveira | +120 at 2025-12-05T17:43:49.876943-07:00 | +165 at 2026-03-07T20:11:36.504408-07:00 | 14 |
| Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira | DraftKings | Max Holloway | -154 at 2025-12-05T17:43:49.876868-07:00 | -215 at 2026-03-07T20:11:36.504364-07:00 | 14 |
| Caio Borralho vs Reinier de Ridder | DraftKings | Caio Borralho | -205 at 2026-01-14T13:42:57.992074-07:00 | -238 at 2026-03-07T19:41:33.784277-07:00 | 19 |
| Caio Borralho vs Reinier de Ridder | DraftKings | Reinier de Ridder | +170 at 2026-01-14T13:42:57.992241-07:00 | +195 at 2026-03-07T19:41:33.784320-07:00 | 19 |
| Rob Font vs Raul Rosas Jr. | DraftKings | Raul Rosas Jr. | -205 at 2026-02-14T15:11:43.416347-07:00 | -310 at 2026-03-07T15:11:33.286363-07:00 | 11 |
| Rob Font vs Raul Rosas Jr. | DraftKings | Rob Font | +170 at 2026-02-14T15:11:43.416213-07:00 | +250 at 2026-03-07T15:11:33.286326-07:00 | 11 |
| Drew Dober vs Michael Johnson | DraftKings | Drew Dober | +124 at 2026-02-28T13:12:29.057697-07:00 | -218 at 2026-03-07T19:11:31.866919-07:00 | 26 |
| Drew Dober vs Michael Johnson | DraftKings | Michael Johnson | -148 at 2026-02-28T13:12:29.057820-07:00 | +180 at 2026-03-07T19:11:31.866953-07:00 | 26 |
| Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira | DraftKings | Brunno Ferreira | +170 at 2026-02-14T15:11:43.418509-07:00 | +136 at 2026-03-07T10:41:56.910032-07:00 | 11 |
| Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira | DraftKings | Gregory Rodrigues | -205 at 2026-02-14T15:11:43.418432-07:00 | -162 at 2026-03-07T10:41:56.910005-07:00 | 11 |
| Cody Garbrandt vs Xiao Long | DraftKings | Cody Garbrandt | +130 at 2026-02-14T15:11:43.425020-07:00 | +145 at 2026-03-07T15:41:08.343032-07:00 | 17 |
| Cody Garbrandt vs Xiao Long | DraftKings | Long Xiao | -155 at 2026-02-14T15:11:43.425133-07:00 | -175 at 2026-03-07T15:41:08.343056-07:00 | 17 |
| Donte Johnson vs Cody Brundage | DraftKings | Cody Brundage | +440 at 2026-03-02T09:12:43.253260-07:00 | +525 at 2026-03-07T18:11:40.375751-07:00 | 12 |
| Donte Johnson vs Cody Brundage | DraftKings | Donte Johnson | -600 at 2026-03-02T09:12:43.253097-07:00 | -750 at 2026-03-07T18:11:40.375705-07:00 | 12 |
| Ricky Turcios vs Alberto Montes | DraftKings | Alberto Montes | -185 at 2026-02-27T08:41:38.095044-07:00 | -192 at 2026-03-07T17:11:23.343653-07:00 | 7 |
| Ricky Turcios vs Alberto Montes | DraftKings | Ricky Turcios | +154 at 2026-02-27T08:41:38.094952-07:00 | +160 at 2026-03-07T17:11:23.343611-07:00 | 7 |
| Cody Durden vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | DraftKings | Cody Durden | +124 at 2026-02-14T15:11:43.421185-07:00 | +170 at 2026-03-07T16:12:00.313405-07:00 | 17 |
| Cody Durden vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | DraftKings | Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | -148 at 2026-02-14T15:11:43.421284-07:00 | -205 at 2026-03-07T16:12:00.313442-07:00 | 17 |
| Sumudaerji vs Jesus Aguilar | DraftKings | Jesus Aguilar | +185 at 2026-02-14T15:11:43.433686-07:00 | +140 at 2026-03-07T16:41:28.258830-07:00 | 19 |
| Sumudaerji vs Jesus Aguilar | DraftKings | Su Mudaerji | -225 at 2026-02-14T15:11:43.433570-07:00 | -166 at 2026-03-07T16:41:28.258801-07:00 | 19 |
| Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay | DraftKings | Diyar Nurgozhay | +230 at 2026-02-14T15:11:43.428869-07:00 | +142 at 2026-03-07T16:12:00.127384-07:00 | 13 |
| Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay | DraftKings | Rafael Tobias | -285 at 2026-02-14T15:11:43.428387-07:00 | -170 at 2026-03-07T16:12:00.127287-07:00 | 13 |
| Luke Fernandez vs Rodolfo Bellato | DraftKings | Luke Fernandez | -245 at 2026-02-14T15:11:43.444852-07:00 | -225 at 2026-03-07T14:41:48.066211-07:00 | 8 |
| Luke Fernandez vs Rodolfo Bellato | DraftKings | Rodolfo Bellato | +200 at 2026-02-14T15:11:43.444971-07:00 | +185 at 2026-03-07T14:41:48.066241-07:00 | 8 |