UFC Fight Night Evloev vs Murphy prediction records
Event date: . 13 recorded matchups.
These records preserve the published predictions after the event. Confidence is a model estimate, not a guarantee or the archive win rate. Results use the recorded grading for each market. Missing picks, odds and grades stay unavailable; they are not fabricated. Odds shown here are historical American-odds snapshots from the public archive. Historical line movement and additional sportsbook views are available in the interactive archive under its access rules.
Prediction and data methodology · Report a sourced correction
| Matchup | Market | Published pick and confidence | Graded result | Recorded American odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy | Moneyline | Lerone Murphy (50.60% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -250 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +205 |
| Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (96.85% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy | Over/under significant strikes | Movsar Evloev: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Lerone Murphy: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy | Go the distance | Yes (69.70% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -275 DraftKings / distance / no: +200 |
| Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy | Method of victory | Decision (78.50% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +600 DraftKings / method / Decision: +275 DraftKings / method / Submission: +250 |
| Luke Riley vs Michael Aswell Jr. | Moneyline | Luke Riley (75.00% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -218 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +180 |
| Luke Riley vs Michael Aswell Jr. | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (92.90% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Luke Riley vs Michael Aswell Jr. | Over/under significant strikes | Luke Riley: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Michael Aswell Jr.: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Luke Riley vs Michael Aswell Jr. | Go the distance | No (93.40% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: -135 DraftKings / distance / no: +100 |
| Luke Riley vs Michael Aswell Jr. | Method of victory | KO/TKO (65.10% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +350 DraftKings / method / Decision: +300 DraftKings / method / Submission: +350 |
| Michael Venom Page vs Sam Patterson | Moneyline | Sam Patterson (54.00% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -218 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +180 |
| Michael Venom Page vs Sam Patterson | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (96.85% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Michael Venom Page vs Sam Patterson | Over/under significant strikes | Michael Venom Page: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Sam Patterson: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Michael Venom Page vs Sam Patterson | Go the distance | No (79.10% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +130 DraftKings / distance / no: -175 |
| Michael Venom Page vs Sam Patterson | Method of victory | KO/TKO (48.10% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +250 DraftKings / method / Decision: +425 DraftKings / method / Submission: +250 |
| Iwo Baraniewski vs Austen Lane | Moneyline | Iwo Baraniewski (67.20% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -700 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +500 |
| Iwo Baraniewski vs Austen Lane | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (96.80% confidence) | Incorrect | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Iwo Baraniewski vs Austen Lane | Over/under significant strikes | Iwo Baraniewski: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Austen Lane: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Iwo Baraniewski vs Austen Lane | Go the distance | No (71.00% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +700 DraftKings / distance / no: -1600 |
| Iwo Baraniewski vs Austen Lane | Method of victory | KO/TKO (81.00% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +600 DraftKings / method / Submission: +1000 DraftKings / method / Decision: +1200 |
| Roman Dolidze vs Christian Leroy Duncan | Moneyline | Christian Leroy Duncan (51.80% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +270 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -340 |
| Roman Dolidze vs Christian Leroy Duncan | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (96.85% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Roman Dolidze vs Christian Leroy Duncan | Over/under significant strikes | Roman Dolidze: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Christian Leroy Duncan: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Roman Dolidze vs Christian Leroy Duncan | Go the distance | No (52.40% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +100 DraftKings / distance / no: -130 |
| Roman Dolidze vs Christian Leroy Duncan | Method of victory | Decision (49.10% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +120 DraftKings / method / Decision: -125 DraftKings / method / Submission: +120 |
| Kurtis Campbell vs Danny Silva | Moneyline | Danny Silva (58.10% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -305 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +245 |
| Kurtis Campbell vs Danny Silva | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (96.35% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Kurtis Campbell vs Danny Silva | Over/under significant strikes | Kurtis Campbell: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Danny Silva: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Kurtis Campbell vs Danny Silva | Go the distance | Yes (71.70% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: -160 DraftKings / distance / no: +120 |
| Kurtis Campbell vs Danny Silva | Method of victory | Decision (49.00% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +225 DraftKings / method / Decision: -120 DraftKings / method / Submission: -170 |
| Mason Jones vs Axel Sola | Moneyline | Mason Jones (73.90% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -166 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +140 |
| Mason Jones vs Axel Sola | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (96.80% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Mason Jones vs Axel Sola | Over/under significant strikes | Mason Jones: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Axel Sola: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Mason Jones vs Axel Sola | Go the distance | Yes (65.90% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -185 DraftKings / distance / no: +140 |
| Mason Jones vs Axel Sola | Method of victory | Decision (47.60% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +450 DraftKings / method / Decision: +185 DraftKings / method / Submission: +185 |
| Nathaniel Wood vs Losene Keita | Moneyline | Nathaniel Wood (73.90% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +235 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -290 |
| Nathaniel Wood vs Losene Keita | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (96.80% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Nathaniel Wood vs Losene Keita | Over/under significant strikes | Nathaniel Wood: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Losene Keita: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Nathaniel Wood vs Losene Keita | Go the distance | Yes (65.90% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -125 DraftKings / distance / no: -105 |
| Nathaniel Wood vs Losene Keita | Method of victory | Decision (47.60% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +140 DraftKings / method / Decision: +115 DraftKings / method / Submission: +140 |
| Mario Pinto vs Felipe Franco | Moneyline | Mario Pinto (73.90% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -1200 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +750 |
| Mario Pinto vs Felipe Franco | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Over 1.5 (96.80% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Mario Pinto vs Felipe Franco | Over/under significant strikes | Mario Pinto: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Felipe Franco: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Mario Pinto vs Felipe Franco | Go the distance | Yes (65.90% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +380 DraftKings / distance / no: -600 |
| Mario Pinto vs Felipe Franco | Method of victory | Decision (47.60% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +1000 DraftKings / method / Decision: +1000 DraftKings / method / Submission: +800 |
| Mantas Kondratavičius vs Antonio Trocoli | Moneyline | Mantas Kondratavičius (72.80% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -1050 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +675 |
| Mantas Kondratavičius vs Antonio Trocoli | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (92.90% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Mantas Kondratavičius vs Antonio Trocoli | Over/under significant strikes | Mantas Kondratavičius: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Antonio Trocoli: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Mantas Kondratavičius vs Antonio Trocoli | Go the distance | No (82.00% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / distance / yes: +600 DraftKings / distance / no: -1200 |
| Mantas Kondratavičius vs Antonio Trocoli | Method of victory | KO/TKO (69.50% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +200 DraftKings / method / Submission: +1100 DraftKings / method / Decision: +1400 |
| Louie Sutherland vs Brando Peričić | Moneyline | Brando Peričić (67.60% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: +185 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -225 |
| Louie Sutherland vs Brando Peričić | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (92.90% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Louie Sutherland vs Brando Peričić | Over/under significant strikes | Louie Sutherland: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Brando Peričić: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Louie Sutherland vs Brando Peričić | Go the distance | No (85.00% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: +350 DraftKings / distance / no: -550 |
| Louie Sutherland vs Brando Peričić | Method of victory | KO/TKO (65.30% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: -165 DraftKings / method / Decision: +350 DraftKings / method / Submission: +215 |
| Shem Rock vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | Moneyline | Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (50.10% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -148 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +124 |
| Shem Rock vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (80.15% confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Shem Rock vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | Over/under significant strikes | Shem Rock: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Shem Rock vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | Go the distance | Yes (59.20% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -125 DraftKings / distance / no: -105 |
| Shem Rock vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | Method of victory | KO/TKO (42.80% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +450 DraftKings / method / Decision: +165 DraftKings / method / Submission: +150 |
| Shanelle Dyer vs Ravena Oliveira | Moneyline | Shanelle Dyer (72.70% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / moneyline / red: -550 DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +410 |
| Shanelle Dyer vs Ravena Oliveira | Over/under rounds | Over 0.5, Under 2.5 (92.90% confidence) | Correct | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Shanelle Dyer vs Ravena Oliveira | Over/under significant strikes | Shanelle Dyer: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence); Ravena Oliveira: Unavailable (Unavailable confidence) | Not graded | Not recorded in the public snapshot |
| Shanelle Dyer vs Ravena Oliveira | Go the distance | No (82.00% confidence) | Correct | DraftKings / distance / yes: -225 DraftKings / distance / no: +165 |
| Shanelle Dyer vs Ravena Oliveira | Method of victory | Decision (41.60% confidence) | Incorrect | DraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +240 DraftKings / method / Decision: -215 DraftKings / method / Submission: -225 |
Recorded public odds movement
First and last captured prices for each labelled outcome in the public snapshot. These are captured observations, not a claim to have the sportsbook's opening or closing price. The interactive archive provides the available intermediate observations.
| Matchup | Sportsbook | Outcome | First capture | Last capture | Captures |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy | DraftKings | Lerone Murphy | +225 at 2026-02-10T11:41:27.513970-07:00 | +205 at 2026-03-21T15:11:45.651845-06:00 | 27 |
| Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy | DraftKings | Movsar Evloev | -278 at 2026-02-10T11:41:27.513851-07:00 | -250 at 2026-03-21T15:11:45.651609-06:00 | 27 |
| Luke Riley vs Michael Aswell Jr. | DraftKings | Luke Riley | -230 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.327459-06:00 | -218 at 2026-03-21T15:11:45.642160-06:00 | 24 |
| Luke Riley vs Michael Aswell Jr. | DraftKings | Michael Aswell | +190 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.327546-06:00 | +180 at 2026-03-21T15:11:45.642191-06:00 | 24 |
| Michael Venom Page vs Sam Patterson | DraftKings | Michael Page | -258 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.320287-06:00 | -218 at 2026-03-21T15:11:45.632307-06:00 | 20 |
| Michael Venom Page vs Sam Patterson | DraftKings | Sam Patterson | +210 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.320362-06:00 | +180 at 2026-03-21T15:11:45.632333-06:00 | 20 |
| Iwo Baraniewski vs Austen Lane | DraftKings | Austen Lane | +320 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.316843-06:00 | +500 at 2026-03-21T13:11:40.434595-06:00 | 20 |
| Iwo Baraniewski vs Austen Lane | DraftKings | Iwo Baraniewski | -410 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.316715-06:00 | -700 at 2026-03-21T13:11:40.434556-06:00 | 20 |
| Roman Dolidze vs Christian Leroy Duncan | DraftKings | Christian Leroy Duncan | -340 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.308595-06:00 | -340 at 2026-03-21T14:41:08.512763-06:00 | 17 |
| Roman Dolidze vs Christian Leroy Duncan | DraftKings | Roman Dolidze | +270 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.308533-06:00 | +270 at 2026-03-21T14:41:08.512719-06:00 | 17 |
| Kurtis Campbell vs Danny Silva | DraftKings | Danny Silva | +150 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.301564-06:00 | +245 at 2026-03-21T14:11:32.762551-06:00 | 19 |
| Kurtis Campbell vs Danny Silva | DraftKings | Kurtis Campbell | -180 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.301506-06:00 | -305 at 2026-03-21T14:11:32.762508-06:00 | 19 |
| Mason Jones vs Axel Sola | DraftKings | Mason Jones | -135 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.291084-06:00 | -166 at 2026-03-21T13:11:40.382963-06:00 | 19 |
| Mason Jones vs Axel Sola | DraftKings | Sola Axel | +114 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.291193-06:00 | +140 at 2026-03-21T13:11:40.383011-06:00 | 19 |
| Nathaniel Wood vs Losene Keita | DraftKings | Losene Keita | -180 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.287544-06:00 | -290 at 2026-03-21T13:11:40.361913-06:00 | 18 |
| Nathaniel Wood vs Losene Keita | DraftKings | Nathaniel Wood | +150 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.287471-06:00 | +235 at 2026-03-21T13:11:40.361854-06:00 | 18 |
| Mario Pinto vs Felipe Franco | DraftKings | Felipe Franco | +410 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.270390-06:00 | +750 at 2026-03-21T12:11:46.475648-06:00 | 13 |
| Mario Pinto vs Felipe Franco | DraftKings | Mario Pinto | -550 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.270318-06:00 | -1200 at 2026-03-21T12:11:46.475613-06:00 | 13 |
| Mantas Kondratavičius vs Antonio Trocoli | DraftKings | Antonio Trocoli | +410 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.274197-06:00 | +675 at 2026-03-21T07:41:06.609561-06:00 | 11 |
| Mantas Kondratavičius vs Antonio Trocoli | DraftKings | Mantas Kondratavičius | -550 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.274116-06:00 | -1050 at 2026-03-21T07:41:06.609498-06:00 | 11 |
| Louie Sutherland vs Brando Peričić | DraftKings | Brando Pericic | -285 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.278501-06:00 | -225 at 2026-03-21T10:41:09.184881-06:00 | 10 |
| Louie Sutherland vs Brando Peričić | DraftKings | Louie Sutherland | +230 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.278439-06:00 | +185 at 2026-03-21T10:41:09.184846-06:00 | 10 |
| Shem Rock vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | DraftKings | Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | -125 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.264511-06:00 | +124 at 2026-03-21T11:11:12.816823-06:00 | 23 |
| Shem Rock vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | DraftKings | Shem Rock | +105 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.264429-06:00 | -148 at 2026-03-21T11:11:12.816797-06:00 | 23 |
| Shanelle Dyer vs Ravena Oliveira | DraftKings | Ravena Oliveira | +250 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.260543-06:00 | +410 at 2026-03-21T09:41:20.840863-06:00 | 17 |
| Shanelle Dyer vs Ravena Oliveira | DraftKings | Shanelle Dyer | -310 at 2026-03-10T06:12:10.260484-06:00 | -550 at 2026-03-21T09:41:20.840825-06:00 | 17 |