UFC 329 Mcgregor vs Holloway 2 prediction records

Event date: . 14 recorded matchups.

These records preserve the published predictions after the event. Confidence is a model estimate, not a guarantee or the archive win rate. Results use the recorded grading for each market. Missing picks, odds and grades stay unavailable; they are not fabricated. Odds shown here are historical American-odds snapshots from the public archive. Historical line movement and additional sportsbook views are available in the interactive archive under its access rules.

Prediction and data methodology · Report a sourced correction

UFC 329 Mcgregor vs Holloway 2 prediction records
MatchupMarketPublished pick and confidenceGraded resultRecorded American odds
Conor McGregor vs Max HollowayMoneylineMax Holloway (63.55% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / moneyline / red: +240
DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -298
Conor McGregor vs Max HollowayOver/under roundsOver 0.5, Under 4.5 (66.49% confidence)Not gradedDraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1800
DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +700
DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -125
DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -105
Conor McGregor vs Max HollowayOver/under significant strikesConor McGregor: Under 49.5 (86.00% confidence); Max Holloway: Under 69.5 (84.00% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / sig_strikes / 72.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 72.5 / under: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 48.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 48.5 / under: -115
Conor McGregor vs Max HollowayGo the distanceNo (58.74% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / distance / yes: +350
DraftKings / distance / no: -550
Conor McGregor vs Max HollowayMethod of victoryKO/TKO (48.03% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / method / KO/TKO: -170
DraftKings / method / Decision: +300
DraftKings / method / Submission: +275
Benoît Saint Denis vs Paddy PimblettMoneylinePaddy Pimblett (74.88% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / moneyline / red: -135
DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +114
Benoît Saint Denis vs Paddy PimblettOver/under roundsOver 0.5, Under 2.5 (82.78% confidence)Not gradedDraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -900
DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +475
DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: +105
DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: -135
Benoît Saint Denis vs Paddy PimblettOver/under significant strikesBenoît Saint Denis: Under 32.5 (83.00% confidence); Paddy Pimblett: Under 45.5 (82.00% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / sig_strikes / 42.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 42.5 / under: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 41.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 41.5 / under: -115
Benoît Saint Denis vs Paddy PimblettGo the distanceNo (57.07% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / distance / yes: +165
DraftKings / distance / no: -220
Benoît Saint Denis vs Paddy PimblettMethod of victoryKO/TKO (48.18% confidence)IncorrectDraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +225
DraftKings / method / Decision: +250
DraftKings / method / Submission: +225
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario BautistaMoneylineMario Bautista (54.95% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / moneyline / red: -142
DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +120
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario BautistaOver/under roundsOver 0.5, 1.5 (93.36% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -5000
DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1000
DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -280
DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +210
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario BautistaOver/under significant strikesCory Sandhagen: Over 53.5 (72.00% confidence); Mario Bautista: Over 47.5 (76.00% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / sig_strikes / 53.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 53.5 / under: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 48.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 48.5 / under: -115
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario BautistaGo the distanceYes (58.35% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / distance / yes: -225
DraftKings / distance / no: +165
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario BautistaMethod of victoryDecision (59.27% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +750
DraftKings / method / Decision: +145
DraftKings / method / Submission: +130
Brandon Royval vs Lone’er KavanaghMoneylineLone’er Kavanagh (50.08% confidence)IncorrectDraftKings / moneyline / red: +205
DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -250
Brandon Royval vs Lone’er KavanaghOver/under roundsOver 0.5, 1.5 (93.28% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -2500
DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +800
DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -175
DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +135
Brandon Royval vs Lone’er KavanaghOver/under significant strikesBrandon Royval: Under 56.5 (78.00% confidence); Lone’er Kavanagh: Under 44.5 (74.00% confidence)IncorrectDraftKings / sig_strikes / 56.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 56.5 / under: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 62.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 62.5 / under: -115
Brandon Royval vs Lone’er KavanaghGo the distanceYes (56.04% confidence)IncorrectDraftKings / distance / yes: -150
DraftKings / distance / no: +110
Brandon Royval vs Lone’er KavanaghMethod of victoryDecision (54.35% confidence)IncorrectDraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +200
DraftKings / method / Decision: +100
DraftKings / method / Submission: +115
King Green vs Terrance McKinneyMoneylineKing Green (61.17% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / moneyline / red: -118
DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -102
King Green vs Terrance McKinneyOver/under roundsOver 0.5, Under 2.5 (92.98% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -240
DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +175
DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: +220
DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -298
King Green vs Terrance McKinneyOver/under significant strikesKing Green: Over 18.5 (68.87% confidence); Terrance McKinney: Under 16.5 (69.00% confidence)Not gradedDraftKings / sig_strikes / 20.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 20.5 / under: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 19.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 19.5 / under: -115
King Green vs Terrance McKinneyGo the distanceNo (85.58% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / distance / yes: +750
DraftKings / distance / no: -1800
King Green vs Terrance McKinneyMethod of victoryKO/TKO (47.40% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / method / KO/TKO: -105
DraftKings / method / Submission: +300
DraftKings / method / Decision: +1600
Robert Whittaker vs Nikita KrylovMoneylineRobert Whittaker (61.02% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / moneyline / red: -122
DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +102
Robert Whittaker vs Nikita KrylovOver/under roundsOver 1.5, 2.5 (81.44% confidence)Not gradedDraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1400
DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +600
DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -230
DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +175
Robert Whittaker vs Nikita KrylovOver/under significant strikesRobert Whittaker: Over 39.5 (67.60% confidence); Nikita Krylov: Under 24.5 (67.00% confidence)Not gradedDraftKings / sig_strikes / 39.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 39.5 / under: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 33.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 33.5 / under: -115
Robert Whittaker vs Nikita KrylovGo the distanceNo (64.35% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / distance / yes: +120
DraftKings / distance / no: -160
Robert Whittaker vs Nikita KrylovMethod of victoryDecision (47.50% confidence)IncorrectDraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +225
DraftKings / method / Decision: +250
DraftKings / method / Submission: +240
Gable Steveson vs Elisha EllisonMoneylineGable Steveson (63.32% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / moneyline / red: -1100
DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +700
Gable Steveson vs Elisha EllisonOver/under roundsOver 0.5, Under 2.5 (70.19% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -175
DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +130
DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: +260
DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -360
Gable Steveson vs Elisha EllisonOver/under significant strikesGable Steveson: Over 16.5 (68.00% confidence); Elisha Ellison: Under 8.5 (78.74% confidence)Not gradedDraftKings / sig_strikes / 18.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 18.5 / under: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 8.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 8.5 / under: -115
Gable Steveson vs Elisha EllisonGo the distanceNo (68.94% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / distance / yes: +1000
DraftKings / distance / no: -4000
Gable Steveson vs Elisha EllisonMethod of victoryKO/TKO (47.36% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +1000
DraftKings / method / Submission: +1800
DraftKings / method / Decision: +2200
Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian YanezMoneylineAdrian Yanez (65.22% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / moneyline / red: +300
DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -380
Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian YanezOver/under roundsOver 0.5, Under 2.5 (75.69% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1100
DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +550
DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -230
DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +175
Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian YanezOver/under significant strikesCody Garbrandt: Under 25.5 (80.00% confidence); Adrian Yanez: Under 32.5 (68.25% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / sig_strikes / 48.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 48.5 / under: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 27.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 27.5 / under: -115
Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian YanezGo the distanceNo (77.72% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / distance / yes: +120
DraftKings / distance / no: -160
Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian YanezMethod of victoryKO/TKO (74.53% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / method / KO/TKO: -105
DraftKings / method / Decision: +110
DraftKings / method / Submission: +150
Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka IIIMoneylineLuke Riley (68.41% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / moneyline / red: -265
DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +215
Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka IIIOver/under roundsOver 0.5, 1.5 (79.69% confidence)Not gradedDraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -3500
DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +900
DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -250
DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +190
Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka IIIOver/under significant strikesLuke Riley: Over 67.5 (73.00% confidence); Kai Kamaka III: Under 56.5 (58.34% confidence)Not gradedDraftKings / sig_strikes / 67.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 67.5 / under: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 56.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 56.5 / under: -115
Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka IIIGo the distanceNo (81.63% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / distance / yes: -175
DraftKings / distance / no: +130
Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka IIIMethod of victoryDecision (70.75% confidence)IncorrectDraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +215
DraftKings / method / Decision: -105
DraftKings / method / Submission: +110
Tracy Cortez vs Wang CongMoneylineWang Cong (81.03% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / moneyline / red: +102
DraftKings / moneyline / blue: -122
Tracy Cortez vs Wang CongOver/under roundsOver 1.5, 2.5 (68.44% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -8000
DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +1100
DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -298
DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +220
Tracy Cortez vs Wang CongOver/under significant strikesTracy Cortez: Under 44.5 (62.72% confidence); Wang Cong: Over 39.5 (77.91% confidence)Not gradedDraftKings / sig_strikes / 42.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 42.5 / under: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 58.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 58.5 / under: -115
Tracy Cortez vs Wang CongGo the distanceNo (77.70% confidence)IncorrectDraftKings / distance / yes: -250
DraftKings / distance / no: +180
Tracy Cortez vs Wang CongMethod of victoryKO/TKO (74.50% confidence)IncorrectDraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +275
DraftKings / method / Decision: +150
DraftKings / method / Submission: +120
Damian Pinas vs Cesar AlmeidaMoneylineDamian Pinas (72.72% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / moneyline / red: -285
DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +230
Damian Pinas vs Cesar AlmeidaOver/under roundsOver 0.5, Under 2.5 (82.66% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -575
DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +350
DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -140
DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +110
Damian Pinas vs Cesar AlmeidaOver/under significant strikesDamian Pinas: Over 34.5 (66.62% confidence); Cesar Almeida: Under 35.5 (60.76% confidence)IncorrectDraftKings / sig_strikes / 34.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 34.5 / under: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 26.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 26.5 / under: -115
Damian Pinas vs Cesar AlmeidaGo the distanceNo (52.65% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / distance / yes: +250
DraftKings / distance / no: -350
Damian Pinas vs Cesar AlmeidaMethod of victoryKO/TKO (58.00% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +330
DraftKings / method / Decision: +500
DraftKings / method / Submission: +550
Farid Basharat vs John GarzaMoneylineFarid Basharat (68.61% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / moneyline / red: -750
DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +525
Farid Basharat vs John GarzaOver/under roundsOver 0.5, 1.5 (82.43% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1600
DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +650
DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / over: -140
DraftKings / rounds / 2.5 / under: +110
Farid Basharat vs John GarzaOver/under significant strikesFarid Basharat: Over 47.5 (77.90% confidence); John Garza: Under 20.5 (75.04% confidence)Not gradedDraftKings / sig_strikes / 47.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 47.5 / under: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 28.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 28.5 / under: -115
Farid Basharat vs John GarzaGo the distanceYes (50.95% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / distance / yes: +110
DraftKings / distance / no: -145
Farid Basharat vs John GarzaMethod of victoryDecision (60.84% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +850
DraftKings / method / Decision: +800
DraftKings / method / Submission: +900
Ryan Gandra vs Zachary ReeseMoneylineRyan Gandra (75.02% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / moneyline / red: -142
DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +120
Ryan Gandra vs Zachary ReeseOver/under roundsOver 0.5, Under 2.5 (55.11% confidence)Not gradedDraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -500
DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +320
DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: +100
DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: -130
Ryan Gandra vs Zachary ReeseOver/under significant strikesRyan Gandra: Over 22.5 (65.76% confidence); Zachary Reese: Under 18.5 (63.07% confidence)Not gradedDraftKings / sig_strikes / 28.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 28.5 / under: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 24.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 24.5 / under: -115
Ryan Gandra vs Zachary ReeseGo the distanceNo (90.37% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / distance / yes: +350
DraftKings / distance / no: -550
Ryan Gandra vs Zachary ReeseMethod of victoryKO/TKO (60.45% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +175
DraftKings / method / Decision: +400
DraftKings / method / Submission: +225
Alessandro Costa vs Cody DurdenMoneylineAlessandro Costa (57.48% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / moneyline / red: -218
DraftKings / moneyline / blue: +180
Alessandro Costa vs Cody DurdenOver/under roundsOver 0.5, Under 2.5 (96.42% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / over: -1400
DraftKings / rounds / 0.5 / under: +600
DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / over: -210
DraftKings / rounds / 1.5 / under: +160
Alessandro Costa vs Cody DurdenOver/under significant strikesAlessandro Costa: Under 37.5 (60.35% confidence); Cody Durden: Under 32.5 (66.64% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / sig_strikes / 37.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 37.5 / under: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 30.5 / over: -115
DraftKings / sig_strikes / 30.5 / under: -115
Alessandro Costa vs Cody DurdenGo the distanceNo (62.20% confidence)CorrectDraftKings / distance / yes: +120
DraftKings / distance / no: -160
Alessandro Costa vs Cody DurdenMethod of victoryDecision (56.63% confidence)IncorrectDraftKings / method / KO/TKO: +110
DraftKings / method / Decision: +165
DraftKings / method / Submission: +125

Recorded public odds movement

First and last captured prices for each labelled outcome in the public snapshot. These are captured observations, not a claim to have the sportsbook's opening or closing price. The interactive archive provides the available intermediate observations.

MatchupSportsbookOutcomeFirst captureLast captureCaptures
Conor McGregor vs Max HollowayDraftKingsConor McGregor+280 at 2026-05-16T20:40:48.753819-06:00+240 at 2026-07-11T21:11:12.469925-06:0048
Conor McGregor vs Max HollowayDraftKingsMax Holloway-355 at 2026-05-16T20:40:48.753889-06:00-298 at 2026-07-11T21:11:12.470005-06:0048
Benoît Saint Denis vs Paddy PimblettDraftKingsBenoit Saint-Denis-170 at 2026-05-01T10:16:45.654004-06:00-135 at 2026-07-11T19:41:46.470013-06:0036
Benoît Saint Denis vs Paddy PimblettDraftKingsPaddy Pimblett+142 at 2026-05-01T10:16:45.654049-06:00+114 at 2026-07-11T19:41:46.470041-06:0036
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario BautistaDraftKingsCory Sandhagen-155 at 2026-05-17T20:41:16.682174-06:00-142 at 2026-07-11T11:11:24.283644-06:0018
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario BautistaDraftKingsMario Bautista+130 at 2026-05-17T20:41:16.682236-06:00+120 at 2026-07-11T11:11:24.283663-06:0018
Brandon Royval vs Lone’er KavanaghDraftKingsBrandon Royval+142 at 2026-05-17T20:41:16.664140-06:00+205 at 2026-07-11T19:41:46.441569-06:0025
Brandon Royval vs Lone’er KavanaghDraftKingsLone'er Kavanagh-170 at 2026-05-17T20:41:16.664237-06:00-250 at 2026-07-11T19:41:46.441607-06:0025
Robert Whittaker vs Nikita KrylovDraftKingsNikita Krylov+170 at 2026-06-29T09:41:37.583805-06:00+102 at 2026-07-11T17:11:32.052497-06:0025
Robert Whittaker vs Nikita KrylovDraftKingsRobert Whittaker-205 at 2026-06-29T09:41:37.583709-06:00-122 at 2026-07-11T17:11:32.052465-06:0025
Gable Steveson vs Elisha EllisonDraftKingsElisha Ellison+1000 at 2026-05-17T20:41:16.672336-06:00+700 at 2026-07-11T17:41:27.096710-06:0024
Gable Steveson vs Elisha EllisonDraftKingsGable Steveson-1800 at 2026-05-17T20:41:16.672262-06:00-1100 at 2026-07-11T17:41:27.096692-06:0024
Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian YanezDraftKingsAdrian Yanez-410 at 2026-06-29T09:41:37.577867-06:00-380 at 2026-07-11T17:41:27.083104-06:009
Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian YanezDraftKingsCody Garbrandt+320 at 2026-06-29T09:41:37.577778-06:00+300 at 2026-07-11T17:41:27.083076-06:009
Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka IIIDraftKingsKai Kamaka III+250 at 2026-06-29T09:41:37.611538-06:00+215 at 2026-07-11T16:41:45.749870-06:0025
Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka IIIDraftKingsLuke Riley-310 at 2026-06-29T09:41:37.611438-06:00-265 at 2026-07-11T16:41:45.749844-06:0025
Tracy Cortez vs Wang CongDraftKingsCong Wang-142 at 2026-06-29T09:41:37.597206-06:00-122 at 2026-07-11T08:11:26.085764-06:0025
Tracy Cortez vs Wang CongDraftKingsTracy Cortez+120 at 2026-06-29T09:41:37.595600-06:00+102 at 2026-07-11T08:11:26.085729-06:0025
Damian Pinas vs Cesar AlmeidaDraftKingsCesar Almeida+142 at 2026-06-29T09:41:37.605301-06:00+230 at 2026-07-11T16:11:23.027616-06:0019
Damian Pinas vs Cesar AlmeidaDraftKingsDamian Pinas-170 at 2026-06-29T09:41:37.605213-06:00-285 at 2026-07-11T16:11:23.027592-06:0019
Farid Basharat vs John GarzaDraftKingsFarid Basharat-600 at 2026-07-07T10:41:05.862102-06:00-750 at 2026-07-11T15:41:19.719563-06:0010
Farid Basharat vs John GarzaDraftKingsJohn Garza+440 at 2026-07-07T10:41:05.862234-06:00+525 at 2026-07-11T15:41:19.719606-06:0010
Alessandro Costa vs Cody DurdenDraftKingsAlessandro Costa-265 at 2026-07-02T07:43:59.694995-06:00-218 at 2026-07-11T14:11:19.703011-06:0010
Alessandro Costa vs Cody DurdenDraftKingsCody Durden+215 at 2026-07-02T07:43:59.695111-06:00+180 at 2026-07-11T14:11:19.703040-06:0010